It has become standard practice for pundits to review a politician’s first 100 days in office. The assessment emerging of Indonesia’s Megawati Sukarnoputri, after the first three months of her administration, is less than enthusiastic. She is being criticized for being too low profile and inactive, while her country becomes increasingly riven with divisions.
These accusations are not entirely fair. After 32 years of military dictatorship, Indonesia is a political and economic mess. Her father, Sukarno, was the first president of the country after independence in 1945 but was overthrown by the military in 1965. Whatever the shortcomings of his government, the military proved to be poor rulers. Corruption, fueled by the rising flows of oil wealth, undermined the foundations of public life. Military rule was brutal and uncompromising and all forms of dissidence were ruthlessly suppressed. Unfortunately, this repression had the effect not only of covering over the fault lines emerging within Indonesian society, but contributed to the buildup of pressures, which are only now being released.
When public opinion finally caused the military to desert President Suharto and ushered in the arrival of a civilian government led by Abdurrahman Wahid, the scale of the chaos facing the government in Jakarta was daunting. Wahid quickly proved incapable of acting firmly to restore both order and the people’s faith in their leaders. Megawati, who replaced him, has had no better success in the struggle against the fissiparous ethnic tides within Indonesia’s myriad ethnic groups. She began by appealing to the better judgment of dissident political groups. Her message was essentially that the wrongs that had fired their movements for autonomy or independence were being brought to an end. They should rededicate themselves to an ethnically diverse but united Indonesia state. Unfortunately, the secession of East Timor had spurred other ethnic groups to hope for a similar break. It has not appeared to matter that East Timor was always a special case and had never been a part of the original Indonesian state. Now she has recast her message with a stark warning that unless the forces impelling the breakup of Indonesia are checked, the country will become "The Balkans of the East". If it did split into ethnic and cultur al groups, not one of such states would be capable of standing alone. This would, therefore, be an invitation to outside forces to meddle in the archipelago.
The virtue of the message cannot be doubted. But this warning, terrible though it is, will surely not be enough to cause all those advocating independence for their particular communities to pull back from the brink. The president needs to do more and to be seen to be doing more. She needs a coherent program of reunification and prosperity for all that can bring all Indonesians back together.
The one big argument that she has in her favor at the moment is that if she fails, as many of the political old guard are hoping, then she will almost certainly be replaced by the military. And 32 years of political and economic failure have demonstrated to all Indonesians that the military have absolutely nothing to offer the people, except violent repression and unbridled corruption.
