PARIS, 20 February — French strategists estimate that with the war being waged between Israeli and Palestinian forces in the occupied territories, say that the successful attack Thursday (Feb. 14) of a Merkava 3 tank by an unusually powerful Palestinian explosive device constitutes a “major turning point” in the war, and that a “turn of the tide” could take place in the coming weeks, if not days.
The French analysts have indeed begun speaking in terms of a possible “Hezbollization” of the war as for the first time in their memory, the Palestinian military appear to be employing the very methods heretofore associated with the Hezbollah in their war against the Israelis in Lebanon, methods that brought about the decision by Tsahal in May 2000 to withdraw from the security zone they’d occupied until then in Southern Lebanon.
The French strategists say that the arrival of the unusually powerful new weapon — which was deployed by the military branch of the People’s committees particularly active in the Gaza Strip in recent weeks — was so unexpected that according to their own intelligence, Israeli military planners were also caught unawares by the attack and “began understanding the significance of what had happened” only this weekend.
The Israeli specialists, say the French, are concerned over the destruction of the 60-tonne Merkava 3, as it was considered near-invincible — this in part because of its sophisticated electronic gear — indeed it’s viewed at least in other capitals like Washington as one of the most powerful tanks presently in use anywhere on the planet.
The French analysts also note that they too, not only the Israeli defence planners, are quite surprised that the Palestinians were able to deploy an explosive device which in their estimation had an explosive force of at least 100kg of explosives, as it sent the 60-tonne tank flying into the air and left an enormous crater, estimated to be over a meter deep and measure several meters in diameter.
A prototype of a new generation Israeli tank, the Merkava 4, was to have come off the assembly line in the coming weeks, but now its arrival may be delayed, estimate the French analysts, as Israeli defence planners attempt to correct the tank’s weak points in order to avoid further damage to the tank, which until now had been the pride and joy of Tsahal.
The explosion which killed three Israeli military could also take its toll on Israeli public opinion — which until now has been largely supportive of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s unlimited war on Palestine — but according to the French analysts, might be ready to consider more moderate solutions to the war if Mr Sharon’s war gets bogged down, which the French strategists say is what is beginning to happen.
Moreover, they note, Tsahal has been seriously embarrassed by the decision of several Israeli military to refuse henceforth to serve in the occupied territories, claiming that their actions are serving no useful purpose, but being used solely to “humiliate” the Palestinian people.
If there is a positive side to Israel’s problems in the occupied territories, say the French strategists, it is that the apparent turning of the tide comes at a most appropriate moment, as France prepares to actively lobby for acceptance of the new peace plan recently presented to France’s major allies by its principal architect, French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine.
The plan, as presented in late January by Vedrine, depends in large part on the holding of general elections in the Palestinian territories, as well as the declaration of a Palestinian state as early as possible, in any case before its geographical borders are determined.
Vedrine, in presenting the plan, noted that declaration of a Palestinian state “should be a point a departure, not necessarily the eventual goal of negotiations.” “Our plan,” said Vedrine, will hopefully provoke a psychological shock, relaunch the peace process, indeed justify the end of the second Intifada.”
Although reaction to the plan has for the moment been quite lukewarm, say French specialists in the matter, the possible “Hezbollization” of the war in the occupied territories could very well “catalyse” the peace process, precipitating the changes that have long been awaited, changes that could make Vedrine’s propositions more appropriate and possible than ever — conditions that until now had not been reunited.
The French specialists note that one person who’s given support to the plan is Arafat himself, who told a delegation of visiting lawmakers from Paris a week ago (February 10) that “I appreciate all of the European initiatives towards peace, and the French plan in particular.”
Arafat may have also had an inkling of what was to come, notably with regard to the apparent change of Palestinian military strategy and the resulting Israeli Valentine’s Day setback, as he told the French parliamentarians, that he hoped to be able to come to France in the near future to accept the invitations they’d just made for him to address the French National Assembly in Paris and the European Parliament in Strasbourg. “Now that I have not one, but two invitations, I’ll just have to come,” Arafat is reported to have told one of the French parliamentarians.
