Political analysts seeking to predict the results of the US midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 8 report a substantial shift in American public opinion toward the political right.
Whether this is the result of the perceived weakness of President Joe Biden, or an increase in the popularity of conservative ideas and policies is a subject that can be debated.
Predictions in politics are far from certain. However, some aspects of the current elections are clear, such as the enthusiasm supporters of former President Donald Trump will show toward most of the candidates he has endorsed. This will be a prelude to Trump running again for the leadership in 2024.
There are many important topics to debate in this election, such as the economy, abortion, crime, race relations, gun violence, the climate and the Russian-Ukraine war.
However, Biden seems to prefer to talk about democracy in the US and how it is threatened by extremism. While this is an important topic, it is not a proper campaign issue to take to the American people, and he will not save American democracy this way.
What is worse is that former President Barack Obama is ridiculing many Republican candidates, accusing them of extremism. This may backfire because the sentiment of most American voters in November 2022 leans toward the Republican Party.
This election is taking place at a difficult time. The world economy is in recession following pandemic shutdowns, and hopes of world peace have faded as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Such a gloomy outlook is likely to result in people wanting change as they voice their disapproval of the performance of those in power.
Perhaps some justification for the policies of Biden and the Democrats can be expressed due to what many saw as the divisive figure and presidency of his predecessor. However, Biden is discouraging the American people from talking about the real issues by focusing on how extremist the Republicans have become.
Trump and the Republicans are attempting to make the elections more than just Congressional. They want to end the political lives and careers of the Clintons, the Obamas, Pelosi, Biden, and even Bernie Sanders. They may actually succeed.
Polling suggests that the Republicans will win on the economy, guns, race and abortion because their message on these issues resonates well with most voters.
One problem with political predictions in general, and in the midterm elections, in particular, is that they forecast general trends in American politics and society. Political predictions do not provide many details. Yet, it is obvious that Trump, his candidates and his voters have worked steadily over the past two years to try to seriously change the political landscape of the US. How far Trump is from the White House one more time remains unknown.
The world will not know the results of all the elections by the end of Tuesday. However, any political commentator can see the weakening of Biden’s power.
Among the many predictions are that the Congressional committees investigating the attack on Capitol Hill, known as the Jan. 6 Committee, will be disbanded. Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, could lose her job and her status in Washington will be reduced.
Trump and the Republicans are attempting to make the elections more than just Congressional. They want to end the political lives and careers of the Clintons, the Obamas, Pelosi, Biden, and even Bernie Sanders. They may actually succeed.
A Republican-dominated Congress could open investigations into the conduct of the president’s son, Hunter. The elections will divide the US further. The political self-control of the American people is not easy to predict. Nevertheless, the shift to the right is clear. How long such a conservative mood will continue is also unknown.
An expected defeat by the Democrats will not prevent them from mounting more challenges to the Republicans, and two years from now, the situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be disastrous. The political prediction is that it will be a campaign issue in the race for the presidency.
• Faisal Al-Shammeri is a political analyst. Twitter: @Mr_Alshammeri