It is a reasonable assumption that the assassination attempt on Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the bomb attack in Kabul the same day were the work of the same people, out to spread panic and kill the man on whom depends so many of Afghanistan’s hopes. Inevitably, the finger has been pointed at Al-Qaeda and the Taleban. Both attacks fit in with their known methods. Al-Qaeda has specialized in coordinated simultaneous attacks. They have never cared about Afghan civilians being killed and maimed. Another reason for suspecting Al-Qaeda is that two devices were used in the Kabul attack, indicating an experienced terrorist organization behind it. Apart from Al-Qaeda, there is no such organization in the country.
On the other hand, the attacks might have been the doing of one of the warlords excluded from power in Kabul who has managed to press former Taleban and Al-Qaeda elements into service. The one considered most likely is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the head of the once-powerful Hezb-e-Islami, who is bitterly opposed to the present government and its US backers. Not only has he threatened a jihad to remove the Americans (and by implication the government they support), he has also the appetite for mindless carnage. After the collapse of the Soviet-backed government in 1992 and his exclusion from the Mujahedeen government, he laid siege to Kabul causing tens of thousands of civilian deaths. By the end of last year, he was busy trying to rebuild support among Pashtun commanders in southern Afghanistan who had originally been loyal to his Hezb-e-Islami but, after 1994, had switched to the Taleban. It is quite possible that the remnants of the Taleban forces in the south have indeed rallied to his banner.
But whoever was responsible for these attacks, one thing is sure: Afghanistan remains seriously unstable. It is still run by guns. Moreover, it can be argued that security is deteriorating.
Afghans want to be governed by laws, not guns. There is only one way that can be achieved: by help from outside, in adequate aid and in pumping up the government’s military muscle. That is why Karzai has been going round the world pleading for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to be extended outside Kabul. It is why the UN’s Special Representative to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi, told the UN Security Council two months ago that an expansion of ISAF would have "an enormous impact" on the government’s ability to impose law and order. But there is also the fact that aid — the other tool in persuading the tribal chiefs to work with,, not fight, the government — has not been flowing as promised.
Perhaps the assassination attempt and the Kabul bomb attack will act as a wake-up call to the world. Karzai needs full-scale military and financial resources to consolidate his authority. It would be madness to let him fail by default after all that has been done to rescue the country. No doubt Russia will be in generous mood when Karzai meets with its Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov next Thursday to discuss deliveries of extra military equipment. But it would be the supreme irony if Russia, of all countries, is the only one to help Afghanistan at this moment. The fledgling government needs large-scale military and financial help. It must get it.
