AHMEDABAD, 11 December 2002 — The ruling Hindu nationalists Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) held a final day of campaigning yesterday for an election in Gujarat state which is expected to shape the nation’s political agenda after the worst religious riots in a decade.
The Gujarat elections are being viewed as a crucial signal of BJP’s political future, which has of late faced a series of electoral defeats. While assembly polls are due in 10 states in the coming year, Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2004. Election to the Surat City (West) seat has been countermanded folowing the death of aw Minister Hemant Chapatwala, Counting of votes will be held on Dec. 15.
A win for the BJP in tomorrow’s poll would be a victory for the hard-line policies of outgoing Chief Minister Narendra Modi whose campaign has focused on attacking Pakistan and an alleged threat from Muslim militants.
"It’s not a question of who will come to power, who will form a government, the issue is who can give security to the 50 million people of Gujarat," Modi told an election rally in the main city of Ahmedabad yesterday.
Defeat would badly undermine the BJP’s leadership of the fractious national coalition government, already squabbling over economic reforms and privatization, and could ultimately force an early national election.
The Congress party already controls many of India’s state governments and, were it to win in Gujarat, would leave the BJP looking perilously isolated at the helm of a national government in New Delhi.
The BJP has thrown massive resources into retaining control of Gujarat, flying in its top leaders including Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and sending thousands of party workers out to every village to drum up support.
Modi has presented himself as a savior of the Hindus, warning voters that only he can protect them from Pakistan and from the Muslim militant attacks India claims it supports — a charge Islamabad denies.
Again and again, he has reminded voters of the burning to death by a Muslim mob of 59 Hindus in a train in the town of Godhra on Feb. 27, which sparked massive reprisals in which at least 1,000 people, most of them Muslims, died.
Modi has been accused of turning a blind eye or even fanning the violence against Muslims in February and March. He denies these charges.
Political analysts say the aim is to unite the Hindu electorate — traditionally fractured down caste lines and by local clan loyalties — to win victory.
Congress has always won the votes of Muslims, but since these make up only nine percent of the population, it has traditionally had to exploit Hindu caste and clan divisions to win power.
About 100,000 police and federal paramilitary personnel have been deployed in the state ahead of tomorrow’s poll. "We don’t expect any violence, everyone is free to go out and vote without fear or intimidation," said Ashok Narayan, who is in charge of security for the state government. "We are absolutely ready for the election," he said.
Some 5,000 people have been detained in Gujarat ahead of the polls, police said. "All across the state, more than 5,000 people have been detained as a preventive measure before the election," said Pramod Kumar, police inspector general of the main city of Gandhinagar. "Detentions are continuing even today."
Kumar said that as part of an intensive security drive, more than 40,000 paramilitary personnel, 70,000 local policemen and 60,000 auxiliary force members have been deployed across the state. "The police are also getting the anti-social elements to sign a good-behavior bond and have restricted their inter-state movements," Kumar added.
Muslims in Gujarat, meanwhile, will be turning out with one goal in mind — to oust the hard-line Hindus whom they claim have for months violently persecuted and terrorized them.
Muslim voters are determined to make their presence felt — against the BJP, which they claim turned a blind eye during the attacks. "This is our chance to show the BJP that Muslim votes also count," said Mukhtar Mohammad, a Muslim leader from the Panchmahals district, 150 kilometers (95 miles) south of here.
"(Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra) Modi and (Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna) Advani have been repeatedly saying that they don’t need our votes. We will give them a reply on Dec. 12."
He said leaders of the minority communities, especially Muslims, across the state are mobilizing forces to ensure that there is 100 percent opposition turnout — in favor of the Congress party, arch-rival of the BJP.
"This time there will be 100 percent voting by Muslims and all of us will vote for Congress. We have even asked all our brothers who left the city immediately after the riots to return and cast their votes to defeat BJP," said Zubeir Gopalani, another Muslim leader from Vadodara,.
Gopalani claims that in at least two constituencies of Vadodara, Muslims have sufficient clout to swing the pendulum in favor of any party they choose. The Gujarat state assembly has 182 constituencies.
Apart from Muslims, other minority communities such as Sikhs, Parsis and Christains, are considering a similar strategy to oust the BJP from the state. "Around 40,000 Sikhs of Ahmedabad will vote only for Congress," said Arminder Singh, Chief Minister of the state of Punjab, who was in the city to campaign for the Congress.
Similarly, around 3,000 Parsis are also expected to opt for the secular Congress party. Christians, who constitute less than one percent of the total voters in Gujarat, are also highly influential and traditionally support the Congress party above the hard-line BJP.
"We are strong in towns like Dangs, Nadiad, Anand and can be significant for any party because of our influence in many sections of the population," said Christian human rights activist Father Cederic Prakash. "We would definitely go for a party, which is non-sectarian and has the welfare of the people at heart," he said.
If Congress succeeds against BJP, even Congress leaders admit that it would be due to the anti-incumbency campaign of Gandhian activists and several Non-government organizations among Gujaratis as a whole. Even though some of these Gandhians had earlier opposed Congress, now viewing it as the lesser of the two evils (BJP and Congress), they have actively supported it.
