Up until recently, the Israeli general election campaign was dominated by one theme — security. But there are now several issues on the agenda, and while they serve to spice up the campaign, none have managed to derail Prime Minister Ariel Sharon from his march toward a second term in office.
Until last month, Sharon’s Likud Party, the front-runner in the polls, had been sailing smoothly until allegations of corruption surfaced. The affair has included accusations that some Likud leaders accepted money and favors in exchange for votes in the party’s primary election. No one has been charged but opinion polls showed that public support for Likud was beginning to falter. Two polls showed Sharon and Likud would have captured only 31 seats in the Knesset if the election had been held last week. Likud leaders said last month they expected to win 41 seats when Israelis go to the polls Jan. 28. Sharon needs to put together a coalition government with at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset to have a majority. Likud is still expected to emerge from the elections with the largest share of seats, but its lead is shrinking.
While the scandal is no Watergate, it could hamper Sharon’s chances of forming a stable coalition government. While the polls show that Sharon remains the most popular Israeli politician, the slippage raises questions about what kind of coalition government he will be able to form. It appears that if he cannot stem the Likud losses, he may have to turn to Labor or one of the centrist parties to continue with his policies in a new government. Even though Likud continues to lose popularity, the polls show that voters are not flocking to the Labor Party and its candidate for prime minister, Amram Mitzna. Labor can expect to win 22 Knesset seats in the election, unchanged from a survey a week ago.
Further controversy has broken out over a vote by the Central Elections Commission to bar an Israeli Arab party, Balad, from running in January, along with its leader, Azmi Bishara, and Ahmed Tibi, another Arab politician. Should Bishara and Tibi lose their appeals in the Supreme Court the impact on Palestinian participation in the elections could be dramatic. Arab candidates would be potential allies of Labor if January’s vote turns out to be closer than opinion polls currently suggest. Participation is crucial if only to prevent the expected Likud majority from becoming an absolute landslide.
The dire state of Israel’s economy surfaced as a potential election issue after an official report announced that last year’s growth rate was the worst in 50 years. The economy is suffering from one of the worst crises in the country’s history. The conflict with the Palestinians, together with the world economic downturn, has led to rising unemployment and falling investment. Still, Sharon’s ratings have refused to fall, neither because of economic woes nor anything else.
When Sharon has felt challenged, he has changed the subject to Iraq and has found eager listeners. The Iraqi card has done wonders whenever Sharon and Likud have begun to slide in public opinion polls. And the issue will continue to be used by Sharon, all the way to the election day.
