The extent to which US President George Bush is fixated with Iraq will be confirmed in many minds by the way he shrugs off the increasingly bellicose threats coming out of North Korea. With its now-reactivated nuclear program and at least one if not two nuclear bombs, it is a far greater menace to world peace than Iraq. It ought to be Bush’s main concern. After all, did he not include it in his “axis of evil”?
It seems determined to live up to the description. After apparently opening up to the outside world, it suddenly admitted last October to having had a secret nuclear program, an admission that went spectacularly pear shaped when the US then halted the oil shipments which it desperately needs to keep the electricity stations running. Since then, it has removed monitoring devices at the mothballed Yongbyon nuclear plant, kicked out UN nuclear inspectors, pulled out of the anti-nuclear proliferation treaty and reactivated its nuclear program with the thinly veiled comment that it is for electricity, “at the present stage”. Now, in response to Washington’s talk about possibly strengthening its forces in the Pacific, it threatens a pre-emptive strike against the South and talks of the Korean Peninsula being reduced to ashes in nuclear conflagration. Meanwhile, although the US has agreed to its demand for face-to-face talks, it continues to repeat the demand.
These apocalyptic threats from Pyongyang should most certainly grab George Bush’s sole attention, were it not for one thing. This is about money. North Korea hopes to blackmail the US and other countries in the region, notably South Korea and Japan, into giving it aid and fuel to keep its bankrupt economy going and its Stalinist regime safe from riots and disorder. It has latched on to the Iraqi crisis, reckoning that the US cannot afford to fight on two fronts at the same time. There is probably also an element of fear that North Korea might be next in line after the US had dealt with Iraq. There may even be an element of sympathy with Baghdad; North Korea has provided it with weapons technology and would like to hold on to the market, even hope for cheap Iraqi oil. But these are lesser considerations. Dollars are what North Korean leader Kim Jong-il wants.
It is because of grim determination rather than skill that Bush has not risen to the bait. He will not be put off Iraq. Were it not for that, he would certainly have responded very differently to Pyongyang’s threats. A public enemy No. 1 is precisely what he has wanted. But then, of course, Pyongyang would not have engineered this sideshow had there been no Iraqi crisis.
This Pacific masquerade could, however, still prove disastrous. Although trying to use carrot as well as stick (despite its bellicose threats, it has just allowed South Korean tourists to venture north), dire economic necessity could force Pyongyang into more desperate measures. There may be method in its madness, but the madness should not be forgotten. Unpredictable and paranoid as well, it may decide to up the ante and test one if its missiles, as it did in 1998, or at least announce that it is going to do so, as it did in 1999. It may even be insane enough to launch a limited attack the South in the hope of gaining US attention.
Despite Washington’s agreement to talks, what is needed fast is a mediator. The most obvious ones are Russia and China. Both would like the kudos from resolving the issue and both have some leverage with Pyongyang. But not a lot. It is the North Koreans who will decide what happens next.
