Colin Powell came and went. He had a “frank” discussion with the Syrians. He subsequently turned out on the Sunday talk shows and spelled out the nature of this “frank” discussion. It basically amounted to either you do this, or else. Newt Gingrich did not like what had happened. He called the visit “ludicrous.” Rumsfeld denied he had authorized the Gingrich remark or had heard it before. President Bush flew a jet onto an aircraft carrier and managed somehow to solicit the impossible from Fox News: A snide remark about the macho image that seemed embarrassing enough.
Basra, under British control, is eerily quiet while all areas under American control, including Baghdad, are seething with anger and incidents that invariably produce casualties. There is something to be said for colonial expertise. Americans (soldiers if not politicians) would rather be back home in time for the summer baseball season instead of building and running a colonial officers club replete with endless bottles of gin and staffed by liveried locals.
The “Road Map” for Middle East peace has been handed to the concerned parties. I haven’t been privy to its details, but I can assure you that it did not take into consideration the nature of our roads around here. It probably is a sanitized version of Interstate 70 crossing the continental United States from east to west. Unfortunately, our roads here are dusty and ancient. They are made for mules and donkeys and not for vehicles that shut the world out in an air-conditioned space filled with surround music. It is true that some venerable feet have kicked up dust on these roads over the ages, but Sharon and Arafat are not among them. Those two are as alien as the creatures of Mary Shelley’s nightmares.
If this is the sum of last week’s news, then little has changed. The Middle East, yet again, proves its ability to swallow everything and everyone and continue in its old ways. The fun is over and when the President is finished with his victory tours and people are simply saturated with parades and speeches from aircraft carriers, the reality of the Middle East will rise again as if nothing has changed. This is the enigmatic nature of this place. And this is what the Administration does not understand but will soon find out.
The only clear advantage the Administration has is its military power. Once that power is idle, it becomes much like any other power. The days are long and hot, with no possible relief until October. Rumsfeld and co. are jittery and instinctively know of the pitfalls ahead. To keep the advantage, the military will have to be engaged. That is why the “Syria next” scenario is alarmingly feasible, if not in the final planning stages already. When threatening words toward Syria come from the ‘moderate’ Powell, they are indicative of something more sinister in the minds of the more hawkish officials.
The Middle East, for some odd reason that has baffled academics let alone politicians, does not subscribe to political norms, no matter where the origins of such norms are. This is not necessarily good or bad. It simply is a reality. Syria, for example, is the only place on earth that had three coup d’etats in one day. If there is a lesson to be learned in this, it is the fact that fame and glory can be achieved swiftly; and just as swiftly, they can be lost.
The dictates of realpolitik, therefore, demand that the Americans, in order to keep the advantage, will have to keep those tanks on the move. I am sure that Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, and Perle have no problem with this scenario. Gingrich’s comments were not spontaneous or off the cuff. They portend a reality we will soon have to accept. What remains to be seen is how the American public reacts to this new twist. I am sure that there will be in the months to come a campaign of vilification aimed at Syria. You can already see the beginnings of it. Fox News is already referring to Syria as “that country.”
Unfortunately for the administration, Assad Jr.’s hands are clean. He also is trying to make things “better” for his people. It might not be enough, but it certainly is better than what Saddam has been doing in Iraq. Somehow, I don’t think that will make any difference to the plans being prepared for him.
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Arab News Features 8 May 2003
