Optimism like that expressed by Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qorei that a peace deal with his Israeli counterpart Ariel Sharon is possible within six months has rarely been seen in the 40-odd months of the uprising. But it springs from several recent factors. First off, both Hamas and Islamic Jihad — who staged more than 100 suicide bombings over the last three years — indicated they were considering Qorei’s call to halt attacks and are to meet in Cairo early next month to discuss a truce. Second, if widespread reports are confirmed, an Israeli change, albeit not a sea change, is approaching. Sharon is purportedly planning a package of conciliatory steps toward Palestinians. No specifics are being offered, however. The steps are to be revealed when Qorei and Sharon meet.
If the reports are true, it is a start.
The moves follow unusually sharp criticism last week by President Bush of the separation wall Israel is building in the West Bank and signs that Washington will respond by trimming its $9 billion in loan guarantees to Tel Aviv. They also come at a time when Israel’s top general and top former members of Shin Beit criticized Sharon’s handling of the conflict. Israeli opposition politicians and Palestinian officials have also aroused interest with their new Geneva peace plan. If all this has led Sharon to rethink strategy, it would be the first time the prime minister retreats from his big-stick policy toward the Palestinians. There are reports, unimaginable just a short while ago, that Israel may be abandoning some of what it has been demanding of Palestinians, including dismantling “terror” organizations and collecting all illegal weapons.
Another cease-fire may not be terribly difficult to procure. The real question is, will it last? The belief is that a durable cease-fire is possible, unlike the previous hudna which was declared by Palestinian resistance groups in June but broke down just two months later following Israeli assassinations of Palestinian activists.
There is unanimity among Palestinians that without a full and genuine Israeli commitment, it would be impossible to enforce any cease-fire for any extended period of time. Indeed, the success and survival of any new truce would depend almost completely on Israel’s willingness to rescind its former policies, to halt its assassinations and incursions into Palestinian population centers, to stop its settlement program, to dismantle the barrier that is prejudging borders which should be decided in negotiations, to stop demolishing Palestinian homes and stop destroying orchards and farms, as well as for Israel to remove all travel restrictions throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The demands are axiomatic.
It was these policies that ultimately led to the collapse of the previous truce. Only a reversal in policy will be able to keep the next cease-fire intact.
