No, this was not the way that Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted to celebrate the first anniversary of his party’s historic electoral victory. Earlier this year, at a meeting with a group of journalists in Switzerland, the Turkish prime minister spoke of his hopes for “a year of positive change” in a country thirsting for reform.
The idea, he explained, was to speed up the process of “restoring the armed forces to their proper role”, and taking “the last big steps” toward Turkey’s membership of the European Union while the economy, in the doldrums for a decade, would start showing signs of a turnaround.
What Erdogan had not counted on was a wave of terrorist attacks that could expose the basic weaknesses of his political strategy.
This month’s attacks in Istanbul have already cast doubt on Erdogan’s ability to press on with his plan to recast the Turkish republic by excluding the military leadership from politics. Many Turks, including some in Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), believe that with terrorism threatening the nation, this is no time to pick a fight with the armed forces.
The attacks have already translated into an increase in popular support for the secularist parties who wish to keep the army at the center of Turkish political life.
The terrorist attacks also undermine Erdogan’s hopes of a real economic recovery. To be sure, the Turkish economy has been showing some positive signs in the past few months partly thanks to an enlarged budget deficit. But there are already signs that the terrorist attacks are having a dampening effect on the Turkish mood as a whole. Tourism, the nation’s third largest source of foreign currency, is badly affected while the effects on medium and long-term investments remain to be gauged.
The third plank of Erdogan’s strategy, Turkey’s fast-track into the European Union, is also threatened. The prospect of Turkey turning into a new battlefield for terrorism is unlikely to mobilize greater support for the Turkish aspirations within the EU.
As might have been expected the Istanbul attacks have been conveniently attributed to Al-Qaeda. The attribution suits Erdogan well. The very mention of the word Al-Qaeda is guaranteed to attract the attention, and hopefully the support, of Washington. Also, by pretending that the terrorists were “foreign elements”, the prime minister can foster the illusion that the Turks are victims of an external enemy.
The truth, however, is that the terrorist attacks that have hit Istanbul are, in part at least, a result of almost a quarter of a century of attempts to mix politics with religion — attempts in which Erdogan’s party, and its four predecessors, played a leading part.
The first person to think of creating a religious force, at the time against the left, was Prime Minister Adnan Menderes who was overthrown in a military coup and hanged in 1960.
The groups that he had encouraged, and partly financed through public funds, did not lift a finger to help him in his hour of need.
Fast forward to the 1970s and we have Suleiman Demirel, a political heir to Menderes, playing the religious card. Demirel benefited tactically and managed to become prime minister on two occasions. In time, however, he, too, was ditched by his allies.
One man who thought he had played the Islamist card to the full was Necemettin Erbakan, known to his followers as “Khojah” which means “master”.
Erdogan has made the mistake that Menderes, Demirel and Erbakan made before him.
The terrorist attacks that have hit Turkey have little to do with Iraq or even rising hatred for the United States. Both Iraq and hatred for the US are used as pretext by Islamist groups who wish to destroy Erdogan’s government.
The only way to deal with the threat is to form a broad popular front dedicated to the values and traditions of Turkish democracy.
Erdogan can take the lead in that direction. But before he does he must realize that anyone who mixes politics and religion risks having that mix explode in his face.
