WASHINGTON, 16 December 2003 — Saddam Hussein’s arrest symbolizes major progress in wrapping up Iraq’s past, but the United States still faces complex challenges in sorting out Iraq’s future and winning support from the outside world-both essential in stabilizing the country enough to bring American troops home.
The insurgency is only part of the problem. Under its own schedule, the Bush administration has less than seven months to bring together ethnic and religious communities divided for decades in a new democratic government. It also has to re-create a country devastated by the world’s toughest economic sanctions and three wars during Saddam’s 24-year rule.
“This does mark the closing of an important chapter in Iraqi history, but so far the United States has not been able to open a new chapter by constituting an Iraqi political authority considered legitimate by Iraqis that is representative of their views and competent to rule the country,’’ said Kenneth Pollack, an Iraq expert at the Brookings Institution and former National Security Council staffer.
On the international front, the United States this week launches two pivotal missions that face resistance because of past US policy — one to win debt relief for Iraq and the other to garner UN support for the plan to transfer political power.
Despite congratulatory messages from world leaders Sunday, Washington has yet to persuade the international community to provide political support and financial aid to reconstruct Iraq. France, Russia and Germany heralded the capture, with French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin calling for the capture to be a catalyst for new global unity on Iraq.
But all three nations also pointedly stuck to their joint position that the US-led coalition should not alone oversee the transition and reconstruction. “We have today a path for the reconstruction of Iraq, which we must all commit to ... giving a full role to the United Nations to guarantee the legality of the process,’’ said de Villepin.
As other US officials spoke publicly on the military operation that nabbed the illusive Iraqi leader, Secretary of State Colin Powell worked the phones to try to mobilize international support after a year of tension with key allies. He told more than a dozen of his counterparts in Europe and Asia that Saddam’s seizure reflected what alliances can achieve when they put aside differences and pool resources, said a senior State Department official.
The new diplomatic push came on the eve of former Treasury Secretary James Baker’s trip to Europe to persuade allies to forgive debts run up by Saddam’s government. Baker’s mission was complicated last week when the US announced that those countries and others that opposed the war will not be eligible for US reconstruction contracts, prompting furious criticism from US allies.
In a bid to win concessions, the administration appears prepared to suggest that nations that reduce Iraq’s debt may become eligible for reconstruction contracts-even if they were not part of the original “coalition of the willing.’’
“As circumstances change, we may be able to change the eligibility list,’’ said a US official. He cautioned, however, that the idea is only “hanging out there-no promises.’’
The US-appointed Governing Council is also due this week to present its timetable and transition plan to the United Nations in hopes of getting some formal endorsement of the approach. Previous attempts to gain Security Council support on other Iraq initiatives have failed amid contentious debate.
Democrats are already urging the administration to capitalize on Saddam’s capture by shifting policies to win more allied support. “This is a great opportunity for this president to get it right for the long term. And I hope he will be magnanimous, reach out to the UN, to allies who’ve stood away from us, and use this as a moment to transform the entire operation in Iraq,’’ said presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., on “Fox News Sunday.’’
Administration officials cautioned, however, that a single event won’t immediately change views in Europe and elsewhere that Bush’s Iraq venture has been misguided and mishandled. In fact, one official said, Saddam’s arrest could lead to an upsurge of violence and acts of desperation by his followers.
Still, the official said, “this capture shows the forces of Saddam will be defeated and the US will persevere. The longer-term prospects for Iraq go from uncertain to success. As that sinks in, hopefully that will change some of the willingness to get involved on debt and question of assistance.’’
The United States still has a long way to go to win over many Iraqis, analysts warn. One basic problem is the US inability to provide basic security and services to Iraqis more than seven months after the fall of Baghdad, Pollack said.
“Many Iraqis are happy today, but at some point they are going to wake up and remember that the streets are unsafe and that they don’t have oil and they don’ t have jobs and they don’t have the normal life that they all desperately wanted and expected the US to provide long ago,’’ he said. “Unless the US can begin to turn that larger issue around, Saddam’s capture may be nothing more than a blip on the radar screen.’’
The capture of Saddam, a Sunni Muslim, may also make some of Iraq’s Sunnis feel more vulnerable. For centuries, Sunnis have dominated Iraqi politics. In his noon address to the nation, Bush said that a “hopeful day’’ had begun in the oil-rich Gulf nation. “All Iraqis can now come together and reject violence and build a new Iraq,’’ he said.
But Sunnis will be “demoralized and disorganized’’ by Saddam’s capture, Pollack said. “That creates an opportunity for the United States to reach out to Sunni tribes and try to reconcile with them. If they fail to do that, their resistance is likely to coalesce and harden.’’
“What happened today will be tremendously important, but it’s not going to solve the basic problem of ethnic tensions and rivalries. To do that you have to make sure the Sunni Arabs ... buy into a new government,’’ said Amatzia Baram, an Iraq expert at the US Institute of Peace. “That may be easier now, but it’s still not easy.’’
