How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building

Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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Syrian emergency and security personnel search the rubble at the site of an Iranian embassy annex building in Damascus that was hit in an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024. At least 13 people were killed, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)
Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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A top view shows the demolished Iranian Embassy’s consular annex in Damascus, Syria, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024, killing at least 13 people, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)
Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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People walk past portraits of slain Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi's and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi written "Martyrs of Quds" (Jerusalem), on April 3, 2024 in Tehran, after they were killed in a strike at the consular annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. (AFP)
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Updated 10 April 2024
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How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building

How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
  • Iran has ‘no choice but to respond’ to attack that killed two IRGC commanders, but the risks are considerable
  • Analysts suspect Iran will use its regional proxies to strike Israel rather than opt for direct assault

LONDON: With bated breath, the world awaits Iran’s promised retaliation for last week’s suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy annex in the Syrian capital Damascus. Whatever form Teheran’s revenge takes, there is mounting public fear it could trigger an all-out war.

At least 16 people were reportedly killed in the April 1 attack, including two senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Force — Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.




Iran's slain Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi. (AFP/File)

A day after the attack, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi promised the strike would “not go unanswered.” Five days later, Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that Israel’s embassies “are no longer safe.”

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the strike, but Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the US has assessed that the Israelis were responsible.

Middle East experts believe Iran’s promised revenge could take many forms, potentially involving direct missile strikes via one of the IRGC’s proxy groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.




In this photo taken on October 18, 2023, demonstrators gather outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, in solidarity with the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. A high Iranian official has warned that Israel's embassies “are no longer safe” after the Israeli April 1 air strike on the consular building annex of Iran's embassy in Syria. (AFP/File)

“Retaliation seems inevitable. But what form it takes is anyone’s guess,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told Arab News.

An attack on an Israeli Embassy “will be on par with what Israel did in Damascus,” said Vaez, but “no one knows for sure what form the Iranian response will take.”

FASTFACTS

• Jan. 3, 2020: Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.

• Dec. 25, 2023: Seyyed Razi, who headed the IRGC’s logistics and military coordination in Syria, killed outside Damascus in suspected Israeli strike.

• Jan. 20, 2024: Senior Quds Force commander Hajj Sadegh killed when Israel struck a building in Damascus’ Mazzeh neighborhood.

• April 1, 2024: Mohammed Reza Zahedi, his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and five other IRGC officers killed in suspected Israeli strike on embassy annex in Damascus.

Israel seems to have taken pre-emptive measures. Not only has it bolstered its air defenses and called up reservists, but it also shuttered 28 of its 103 diplomatic missions around the world on Friday, according to the Jerusalem Post, and stepped up security measures around its various consulates and missions.

Stressing that the strike is “unusual,” especially during such “complex and sensitive times,” Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, believes “Tehran has no choice but to respond.”

She told Arab News: “Tel Aviv, which chose to assassinate Gen. Zahedi and his companions in the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, was able to assassinate him outside the consulate or at the Masnaa crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border, or even in his office in the southern suburb of Beirut.




Rubble is cleared at the site of an Iranian embassy annex building in Damascus that was demolished by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024, killing at least 13 people were killed, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)

“However, the choice of this place by the Israeli leadership, which is also the residence of the Iranian ambassador, is a message of escalation addressed directly to Khamenei and the IRGC.”

Koulouriotis did not discount the possibility of an attack on an Israeli Embassy.

“Last December, an explosion occurred near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, without causing any casualties,” she said. “Although no party claimed responsibility for the attack, there is a belief in Israel that Iran had a hand in this bombing.

“Therefore, in my opinion, Tehran will take a similar step in the future without claiming responsibility for the attack, but it will not be a direct response to the attack on the consulate in Damascus due to the sensitivity of this step.”

Notwithstanding, Koulouriotis believes “the Iranian response must be publicly adopted to achieve deterrence on the one hand and to satisfy the popular base of the Iranian regime on the other.

“Therefore, for Tehran to go towards a public and direct attack on an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of the countries of the region will mean a dangerous escalation, not with Israel alone, but with the country in which the attack took place.”




A billboard displays a portrait of slain Iran's Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi with a slogan reading in Hebrew, "You will be punished", at Palestine Square in Tehran. Iranian officials have warned that the latest assassination will not go unanswered. (AFP/File)

Phillip Smyth, a fellow at the Washington Institute and former researcher with the University of Maryland, believes the statement from Khamenei’s adviser Safavi about Israeli embassies was “certainly a threat,” but “the issue is if Iran or its proxies can deliver on that promise.”

He told Arab News: “Other operations, such as in India and Thailand — both involving Lebanese Hezbollah — failed. There is a lot of intelligence pressure on these types of operations, too.”

Vaez of the International Crisis Group concurs that a response would be “a very difficult needle to thread for Iran.”

He said: “Tehran doesn’t want to fall into an Israeli trap that would justify expanding the war but also can’t afford to allow Israel to target Iranian diplomatic facilities at no cost.”

Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies, agreed that a conventional direct retaliation, such as using ballistic missiles as its military did before to target US forces and Kurdish sites in Iraq, “could open up the Islamic Republic to more direct strikes by Israel.”

In 2020, Iran responded to the unprecedented US assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport with a direct attack on US troops, launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at the Ain Al-Assad base in Iraq.




Razi Moussavi (L), a senior adviser for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is shown with Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in this undated handout picture released by the Tasnim news agency on Dec. 25, 2023. Moussavi was killed by an Israeli strike in Syria on Dec. 25, 2023, while Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020. (AFP)

Since the suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy annex in Damascus, the US has been on high alert, braced for Iran’s “inevitable” response that could come within the next week, a top US administration official told CNN on April 5.   

The US, Israel’s strongest ally, was quick to deny involvement or prior knowledge of the attack and warned Iran not to retaliate against American interests.

“We will not hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation — again, an attack in which we had no involvement or advanced knowledge — to resume their attacks on US personnel,” Robert Wood, deputy US ambassador to the UN, said in a statement.

US troops in the Middle East, particularly those stationed in Iraq and Syria, have been frequent targets for Iran and its proxies.




Members of Iraq's Al-Nujaba and Kataib Hezbollah militia carry a placard depicting Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani (L) and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis as they march during a funeral in Baghdad on December 4, 2023, for five militants killed a day earlier in a US strike in northern Iraq. (AFP)

Smyth said Tehran might resort to using its “well-developed army of proxy groups spread out across the region,” which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, militias in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Hezbollah announced on Friday that it was “fully prepared” to go to war with Israel.

In a speech commemorating Jerusalem Day, the group’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, described the April 1 strike as a “turning point” and said Iran’s retaliation was “inevitable.”




Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers a televised speech during a gathering to mark annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day commemorations in Beirut's southern suburb on April 5, 2024. (AFP)

Middle East analyst Koulouriotis said the most likely first response scenario is that Iran would “give the green light to Hezbollah in Lebanon … to launch a heavy missile strike against a number of cities in northern Israel, the most important of which is Haifa.”

However, “this scenario is complicated and may lead to the opening of an expanded war against Hezbollah that will end with Iran losing the Lebanon card after Hamas in Gaza.”

Tehran might also order its multinational militias in Syria to direct a missile strike against one of Israel’s military bases in the Golan, said Koulouriotis, but this option “is also futile.”

She added: “Moscow may not agree to bring Damascus into a direct conflict with Tel Aviv, which may lead to Assad paying a heavy price, and thus Tehran will have risked the efforts of 14 years of war in Syria.”




Map showing the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that Israel seized during the 1967 Six-Day War.
An analyst said Iran might find Israeli positions in the Golan region an appropriate target as it seeks to respond to Israel's April 1 attack on Iran's consulate building annex in Damascus. (AFP)

As Tehran considers the Damascus embassy annex strike a direct attack “targeting its prestige in the region,” Koulouriotis said it might choose a direct response to Israel using ballistic missiles and suicide drones, “and the Golan region may be suitable for this response.

“Despite the complexities of this scenario linked to the Israeli reaction, which may lead to additional escalation, it saves face for the Iranian regime and sends a message to Tel Aviv that Tehran will not tolerate crossing the red lines.”

Smyth of the Washington Institute believes that while “there may be a (grander) effort to demonstrate a new weapons capability by a proxy or even Iran itself,” Tehran’s response might also take a form similar to the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.




Houthi fighters are seen on board the British-owned Galaxy Leader ship that the Iran-backed militia seized as it passed through the Al-Mandab Strait off Yemen in November 23, 2024. (AFP/ File) 

“They’ve already demonstrated attempts to economically harm the Israelis by establishing quasi-blockades of the Red Sea by using the Houthis,” he said.

Meanwhile, communities across the Middle East can only wait with mounting concern for the seemingly inevitable Iranian response, mindful that they will likely bear the brunt of any resulting escalation.

Indeed, it is not so much a question of if, but when.

“The delay in response is mainly related to the indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington,” said Koulouriotis. “To prevent the Iranian response from leading to an expanded war or a more dangerous escalation in the region.”
 

 


Sudan army says retakes key district in Khartoum North

Sudan army says retakes key district in Khartoum North
Updated 08 February 2025
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Sudan army says retakes key district in Khartoum North

Sudan army says retakes key district in Khartoum North
  • Military spokesman Nabil Abdullah said that army forces, alongside allied units, had “completed on Friday the clearing of” Kafouri and other areas in Sharq El Nil
  • The army has in recent weeks surged through Bahri pushing the paramilitaries to the outskirts

PORT SUDAN: Sudan’s military said Saturday that it had regained control of a key district in greater Khartoum as it presses its advance against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The district of Kafouri in Khartoum North, or Bahri, had been under RSF control since war between the army and the paramilitaries began in April 2023.
In a statement, military spokesman Nabil Abdullah said that army forces, alongside allied units, had “completed on Friday the clearing of” Kafouri and other areas in Sharq El Nil, 15 kilometers to the east, of what he described as “remnants of the Dagalo terrorist militias.”
The army has in recent weeks surged through Bahri — an RSF stronghold since the start of the war — pushing the paramilitaries to the outskirts.
The Kafouri district, one of Khartoum’s wealthiest neighborhoods, had served as a key base for RSF leaders.
Among the properties in the area was the residence of Abdel Rahim Dagalo, the brother of RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and his deputy in the paramilitary group.
The recapture of Kafouri further weakens the RSF’s hold in the capital and signals the army’s continued advance to retake full control of Khartoum North, which is home to one million people.
Khartoum North, Omdurman across the Nile River, and the city center to the south make up greater Khartoum.
On Thursday, a military source told AFP that the army was advancing toward the center of Khartoum, nearly two years after the city fell to the RSF at the start of the war.
Eyewitnesses in southern Khartoum reported hearing explosions and clashes coming from central Khartoum Saturday morning.
The developments mark one of the army’s most significant offensives since the war broke out between army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and his erstwhile ally Dagalo’s RSF, which quickly seized much of Khartoum and other strategic areas.
The conflict has devastated the country, displacing more than 12 million and plunging Sudan into the “biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded” according to the International Rescue Committee.


President Aoun, PM Salam form Lebanon government

President Aoun, PM Salam form Lebanon government
Updated 08 February 2025
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President Aoun, PM Salam form Lebanon government

President Aoun, PM Salam form Lebanon government
  • Salam’s cabinet of 24 ministers, split evenly between Christian and Muslim sects, was formed less than a month after he was appointed
  • Lebanon is also still in the throes of a crippling economic crisis, now in its sixth year

BEIRUT: Twenty-six days after Nawaf Salam was assigned to form a Lebanese government, the decrees for its formation were announced on Saturday from the Presidential Palace.

President Joseph Aoun accepted the resignation of Najib Mikati’s government.

The Council of Ministers is scheduled to hold its first session at the Presidential Palace next Tuesday.

In a speech after announcing the formation of the government, Salam said he hoped that “it would be a government of reform and salvation, because reform is the only way for Lebanon to rise.”

He added: “With President Aoun, we launch the workshop to build a new Lebanon.”

He said that “the diversity of ministers’ names will not hinder the function of government, and no government formation will satisfy everyone. We will work in a unified manner. I am keeping in mind the establishment of a state of law and institutions, and we are laying the foundations for reform and rescue. There is no room to turn back time, and we must begin work immediately.

“The government will have to work with parliament to complete the implementation of the Taif Agreement and proceed with financial and economic reforms.

“The government will be a place for constructive joint work and not for disputes. I am determined to lay the foundations for reform and rescue in cooperation with President Aoun.”

Salam continued: “This government will strive to restore trust and bridge the gap between the state and the aspirations of the youth. It must work toward the full implementation of the Taif Agreement, proceed with financial and economic reforms, and establish an independent judiciary.”

He emphasized the importance of “ensuring security and stability in Lebanon by completing the implementation of Resolution 1701.”

He said: “It is difficult for any government formation to satisfy everyone. However, the government will endeavor to be cohesive, and diversity will not serve as a source of obstruction to its work, nor will it provide a platform for narrow interests.”

The government included Tarek Mitri as deputy prime minister, Michel Menassa as defense minister, Ahmad Hajjar as interior minister, Youssef Raji as foreign minister, Yassine Jaber as finance minister, Ghassan Salameh as culture minister, Laura Khazen Lahoud as tourism minister, Kamal Chehade as minister of displaced persons and artificial intelligence, Nora Bayrakdarian as minister of sports and youth, Rima Karami as education minister, Adel Nassar as justice minister, Rakan Nasser Eldine as health minister, Mohammed Haidar as labor minister, Joseph Sadi as energy minister, Amir Bisat as economy minister, Charles Hajj as telecommunications minister, Joe Issa El-Khoury as industry minister, Fayez Rasamny as public works minister, Nizar El-Hani as agriculture minister, Fadi Makki as minister of administrative development, Tamara Zein as environment minister, Hanin Sayyed as social affairs minister and Paul Marcos as information minister.

Salam’s government during Aoun’s presidency has broken the norms established by Hezbollah and its allies over three terms, which dictated that the government be composed of direct party representatives and that Hezbollah maintain a significant influence capable of obstructing decisions at every critical political or security juncture.

A technocratic government has been formed, one that is widely acknowledged and uncontested by political parties.

Despite pressure from Hezbollah and the Amal Movement over the past few weeks to form a government similar to its predecessor, both the president and the prime minister-designate stood firm. As a result, they eventually formed a government that reflects the reformist spirit expressed in Aoun’s oath speech.

The new government has no members affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement, but it does have representatives close to the Lebanese Forces Party.

Notably, it includes five women, and for the first time, a ministerial portfolio has been dedicated to artificial intelligence.

The government consists of 24 ministers. Its formation was delayed from Friday to Saturday due to disagreements over Shiite representation.

At noon on Saturday, Salam presented three candidates to the Presidential Palace for selection to fill the fifth Shiite seat in the administrative development portfolio.

Fadi Makki, former adviser to Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2002, was chosen.

Makki is known for pioneering the application of behavioral economics in public policy across the Middle East.

The announcement of the new government coincided with the conclusion of the two-day visit by US deputy envoy for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, who held discussions with several Lebanese officials.

Ortagus’s statement at the Presidential Palace on Friday caught many by surprise, when she said: “The US expresses its gratitude to our ally Israel for defeating Hezbollah. Hezbollah must not be part of the government in any way. It must remain demilitarized and militarily defeated.”

According to Salam’s office, Ortagus met him and reaffirmed “the US support for Lebanon in this new era and government.”

Salam emphasized to Ortagus the need for “international pressure to ensure Israel’s complete withdrawal from the occupied Lebanese territories by the Feb. 18 deadline. This withdrawal must occur without delay or procrastination, in full compliance with international resolutions.”

Ortagus also met the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri. Notably, during this meeting, she was not wearing the Star of David ring she had worn during her earlier meeting with the president on Friday.

While Ortagus did not make a statement, Berri’s media office reiterated that “Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanese territories necessitates our resistance.”

In a separate development, Israeli forces continued to demolish homes in villages along the southern border.

Meanwhile, for a third consecutive day, deadly clashes intensified in north-east Lebanon along the Syrian border and in villages straddling Lebanese and Syrian territories.

On Friday, Aoun held a phone conversation with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa. They both agreed to coordinate efforts to control the situation on the Lebanese-Syrian border and prevent civilian casualties.

The border town of Jarmash was targeted by missiles and drones, while additional missiles landed near the Lebanese town of Qasr, leaving one civilian seriously injured.

After the shelling of the border area, the Lebanese Red Cross transported eight wounded people to hospitals in Hermel.

The Lebanese town of Qanafez, on the northern border of Hermel, was hit by artillery shelling from the Qusayr countryside, breaking a night of relative calm.

Armed clansmen intercepted and shot down three Shaheen drones over the northern border villages of Hermel, after they were launched from Syrian territory.

According to the Lebanese National News Agency, they also destroyed a tank in the town of Jarmash.

Lebanese media reports indicated that 10 members of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham were killed, while three others were captured in the aftermath of the clashes.

The clashes broke out last Thursday when forces aligned with the new Syrian administration advanced on the border town of Hawik as part of a sweeping operation to “seal off smuggling routes for weapons and contraband.”


Hamas accuses Israel of ‘slow killing’ of Palestinian prisoners

Hamas accuses Israel of ‘slow killing’ of Palestinian prisoners
Updated 08 February 2025
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Hamas accuses Israel of ‘slow killing’ of Palestinian prisoners

Hamas accuses Israel of ‘slow killing’ of Palestinian prisoners
  • Seven prisoners were transferred to hospitals immediately after their release
  • The Palestinian Red Crescent confirmed that seven inmates had been admitted to hospitals

GAZA CITY: Hamas accused Israel of adopting a policy it described as the “slow killing” of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails after seven inmates freed on Saturday were admitted to hospital.
“The fact that seven prisoners were transferred to hospitals immediately after their release... reflects the systematic assaults and mistreatment of our prisoners by the Israeli prison authorities,” Hamas said in a statement, adding that it was “part of the policy of the extremist Israeli government, which pursues the slow killing of prisoners inside the prisons.”
Meanwhile Abdullah Al-Zaghari, head of the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club told AFP: “All the prisoners who were released today are in need of medical care, treatment, and examinations as a result of the brutality they were subjected to during the past months. There are seven who were transferred to the hospital.”
The Palestinian Red Crescent confirmed that seven inmates had been admitted to hospitals.


Kingdom’s security ‘red line’ for Egypt, says Cairo

Kingdom’s security ‘red line’ for Egypt, says Cairo
Updated 08 February 2025
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Kingdom’s security ‘red line’ for Egypt, says Cairo

Kingdom’s security ‘red line’ for Egypt, says Cairo

CAIRO: Egypt condemned on Saturday as “irresponsible” statements by Israeli officials suggesting establishing a Palestinian state on Saudi territory, according to a statement by Egypt's foreign ministry.

The foreign ministry said it considered the suggestion a “direct infringement of Saudi sovereignty”, adding that the Kingdom's security was a “red line for Egypt”. 


Head of UN chemical weapons watchdog meets Syrian Arab Republic leader

Head of UN chemical weapons watchdog meets Syrian Arab Republic leader
Updated 08 February 2025
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Head of UN chemical weapons watchdog meets Syrian Arab Republic leader

Head of UN chemical weapons watchdog meets Syrian Arab Republic leader
  • OPCW has always been concerned that the declaration was incomplete and that more weapons remained
  • With new authorities now in power, the OPCW visit has raised hope Syria will be conclusively rid of such weapons after years of delays and obstructions to the body’s work

DAMASCUS: The head of the world’s chemical weapons watchdog met Syrian Arab Republic’s new leader Saturday, in a first visit to Damascus since the ouster of Bashar Assad, who was repeatedly accused of using such weapons during Syria’s 13-year civil war.
More than a decade ago, Syria agreed to hand over its declared stockpile for destruction, but the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has always been concerned that the declaration was incomplete and that more weapons remained.
With new authorities now in power, the OPCW visit has raised hope Syria will be conclusively rid of such weapons after years of delays and obstructions to the body’s work.
The Syrian presidency said interim leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani had “received a delegation from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons” led by Fernando Arias, the body’s chief.
The presidency also shared pictures of Sharaa and Shaibani shaking hands with Arias.
There has been widespread concern about the fate of Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons since Assad’s dramatic overthrow at the hands of Islamist-led rebels.
The OPCW has also expressed concern that valuable evidence may have been destroyed in intense Israeli strikes on Syrian army sites in the wake of his fall.
Israel has said its targets included chemical weapons to prevent them from falling into the hands of “extremists.”
In 2013, Syria agreed to join the OPCW and disclose and hand over its toxic stockpile under Russian and US pressure, and to avert the threat of air strikes by Washington and its allies.
This came after a suspected chemical attack on the Ghouta suburb of Damascus that killed more than 1,000 people, according to US intelligence, and was attributed to the Syrian government, which denied involvement and blamed rebels.
Despite insisting the use of chemical weapons was a red line, then-US president Barack Obama held back on retaliatory strikes, instead reaching a deal with Russia on the dismantlement of Syria’s chemical arsenal under UN supervision.
Assad’s government had long denied using chemical weapons.
But in 2014, the OPCW set up what it called a “fact-finding mission” to investigate chemical weapons use in Syria, subsequently issuing 21 reports covering 74 instances of alleged chemical weapons use.
Investigators concluded that chemical weapons were used or likely used in 20 instances.
In 14 of these cases, the chemical used was chlorine. Sarin was used in three cases and a mustard agent was employed in the remaining three.
In 2021, OPCW members stripped Syria of voting rights after a probe blamed Damascus for poison gas attacks carried out after they had claimed the stockpile was eliminated.
In November 2023, France issued international arrest warrants against Assad, his brother Maher and two generals on suspicion of complicity in the 2013 chemical attacks.