How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building

Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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Syrian emergency and security personnel search the rubble at the site of an Iranian embassy annex building in Damascus that was hit in an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024. At least 13 people were killed, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)
Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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A top view shows the demolished Iranian Embassy’s consular annex in Damascus, Syria, after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024, killing at least 13 people, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)
Special How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
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People walk past portraits of slain Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi's and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi written "Martyrs of Quds" (Jerusalem), on April 3, 2024 in Tehran, after they were killed in a strike at the consular annex of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. (AFP)
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Updated 10 April 2024
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How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building

How Iran might retaliate for suspected Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy building
  • Iran has ‘no choice but to respond’ to attack that killed two IRGC commanders, but the risks are considerable
  • Analysts suspect Iran will use its regional proxies to strike Israel rather than opt for direct assault

LONDON: With bated breath, the world awaits Iran’s promised retaliation for last week’s suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy annex in the Syrian capital Damascus. Whatever form Teheran’s revenge takes, there is mounting public fear it could trigger an all-out war.

At least 16 people were reportedly killed in the April 1 attack, including two senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ extraterritorial Quds Force — Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi.




Iran's slain Quds Force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi. (AFP/File)

A day after the attack, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi promised the strike would “not go unanswered.” Five days later, Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that Israel’s embassies “are no longer safe.”

Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the strike, but Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said the US has assessed that the Israelis were responsible.

Middle East experts believe Iran’s promised revenge could take many forms, potentially involving direct missile strikes via one of the IRGC’s proxy groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.




In this photo taken on October 18, 2023, demonstrators gather outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, in solidarity with the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. A high Iranian official has warned that Israel's embassies “are no longer safe” after the Israeli April 1 air strike on the consular building annex of Iran's embassy in Syria. (AFP/File)

“Retaliation seems inevitable. But what form it takes is anyone’s guess,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told Arab News.

An attack on an Israeli Embassy “will be on par with what Israel did in Damascus,” said Vaez, but “no one knows for sure what form the Iranian response will take.”

FASTFACTS

• Jan. 3, 2020: Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.

• Dec. 25, 2023: Seyyed Razi, who headed the IRGC’s logistics and military coordination in Syria, killed outside Damascus in suspected Israeli strike.

• Jan. 20, 2024: Senior Quds Force commander Hajj Sadegh killed when Israel struck a building in Damascus’ Mazzeh neighborhood.

• April 1, 2024: Mohammed Reza Zahedi, his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, and five other IRGC officers killed in suspected Israeli strike on embassy annex in Damascus.

Israel seems to have taken pre-emptive measures. Not only has it bolstered its air defenses and called up reservists, but it also shuttered 28 of its 103 diplomatic missions around the world on Friday, according to the Jerusalem Post, and stepped up security measures around its various consulates and missions.

Stressing that the strike is “unusual,” especially during such “complex and sensitive times,” Eva J. Koulouriotis, a political analyst specializing in the Middle East, believes “Tehran has no choice but to respond.”

She told Arab News: “Tel Aviv, which chose to assassinate Gen. Zahedi and his companions in the Iranian consulate building in Damascus, was able to assassinate him outside the consulate or at the Masnaa crossing on the Syrian-Lebanese border, or even in his office in the southern suburb of Beirut.




Rubble is cleared at the site of an Iranian embassy annex building in Damascus that was demolished by an Israeli airstrike on April 1, 2024, killing at least 13 people were killed, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guards generals and five personnel from the force. (AFP/File)

“However, the choice of this place by the Israeli leadership, which is also the residence of the Iranian ambassador, is a message of escalation addressed directly to Khamenei and the IRGC.”

Koulouriotis did not discount the possibility of an attack on an Israeli Embassy.

“Last December, an explosion occurred near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi, without causing any casualties,” she said. “Although no party claimed responsibility for the attack, there is a belief in Israel that Iran had a hand in this bombing.

“Therefore, in my opinion, Tehran will take a similar step in the future without claiming responsibility for the attack, but it will not be a direct response to the attack on the consulate in Damascus due to the sensitivity of this step.”

Notwithstanding, Koulouriotis believes “the Iranian response must be publicly adopted to achieve deterrence on the one hand and to satisfy the popular base of the Iranian regime on the other.

“Therefore, for Tehran to go towards a public and direct attack on an Israeli diplomatic mission in one of the countries of the region will mean a dangerous escalation, not with Israel alone, but with the country in which the attack took place.”




A billboard displays a portrait of slain Iran's Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi with a slogan reading in Hebrew, "You will be punished", at Palestine Square in Tehran. Iranian officials have warned that the latest assassination will not go unanswered. (AFP/File)

Phillip Smyth, a fellow at the Washington Institute and former researcher with the University of Maryland, believes the statement from Khamenei’s adviser Safavi about Israeli embassies was “certainly a threat,” but “the issue is if Iran or its proxies can deliver on that promise.”

He told Arab News: “Other operations, such as in India and Thailand — both involving Lebanese Hezbollah — failed. There is a lot of intelligence pressure on these types of operations, too.”

Vaez of the International Crisis Group concurs that a response would be “a very difficult needle to thread for Iran.”

He said: “Tehran doesn’t want to fall into an Israeli trap that would justify expanding the war but also can’t afford to allow Israel to target Iranian diplomatic facilities at no cost.”

Smyth, an expert on Iranian proxies, agreed that a conventional direct retaliation, such as using ballistic missiles as its military did before to target US forces and Kurdish sites in Iraq, “could open up the Islamic Republic to more direct strikes by Israel.”

In 2020, Iran responded to the unprecedented US assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport with a direct attack on US troops, launching a barrage of ballistic missiles at the Ain Al-Assad base in Iraq.




Razi Moussavi (L), a senior adviser for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), is shown with Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in this undated handout picture released by the Tasnim news agency on Dec. 25, 2023. Moussavi was killed by an Israeli strike in Syria on Dec. 25, 2023, while Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020. (AFP)

Since the suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy annex in Damascus, the US has been on high alert, braced for Iran’s “inevitable” response that could come within the next week, a top US administration official told CNN on April 5.   

The US, Israel’s strongest ally, was quick to deny involvement or prior knowledge of the attack and warned Iran not to retaliate against American interests.

“We will not hesitate to defend our personnel and repeat our prior warnings to Iran and its proxies not to take advantage of the situation — again, an attack in which we had no involvement or advanced knowledge — to resume their attacks on US personnel,” Robert Wood, deputy US ambassador to the UN, said in a statement.

US troops in the Middle East, particularly those stationed in Iraq and Syria, have been frequent targets for Iran and its proxies.




Members of Iraq's Al-Nujaba and Kataib Hezbollah militia carry a placard depicting Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani (L) and Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis as they march during a funeral in Baghdad on December 4, 2023, for five militants killed a day earlier in a US strike in northern Iraq. (AFP)

Smyth said Tehran might resort to using its “well-developed army of proxy groups spread out across the region,” which include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq, militias in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.

Hezbollah announced on Friday that it was “fully prepared” to go to war with Israel.

In a speech commemorating Jerusalem Day, the group’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, described the April 1 strike as a “turning point” and said Iran’s retaliation was “inevitable.”




Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers a televised speech during a gathering to mark annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day commemorations in Beirut's southern suburb on April 5, 2024. (AFP)

Middle East analyst Koulouriotis said the most likely first response scenario is that Iran would “give the green light to Hezbollah in Lebanon … to launch a heavy missile strike against a number of cities in northern Israel, the most important of which is Haifa.”

However, “this scenario is complicated and may lead to the opening of an expanded war against Hezbollah that will end with Iran losing the Lebanon card after Hamas in Gaza.”

Tehran might also order its multinational militias in Syria to direct a missile strike against one of Israel’s military bases in the Golan, said Koulouriotis, but this option “is also futile.”

She added: “Moscow may not agree to bring Damascus into a direct conflict with Tel Aviv, which may lead to Assad paying a heavy price, and thus Tehran will have risked the efforts of 14 years of war in Syria.”




Map showing the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that Israel seized during the 1967 Six-Day War.
An analyst said Iran might find Israeli positions in the Golan region an appropriate target as it seeks to respond to Israel's April 1 attack on Iran's consulate building annex in Damascus. (AFP)

As Tehran considers the Damascus embassy annex strike a direct attack “targeting its prestige in the region,” Koulouriotis said it might choose a direct response to Israel using ballistic missiles and suicide drones, “and the Golan region may be suitable for this response.

“Despite the complexities of this scenario linked to the Israeli reaction, which may lead to additional escalation, it saves face for the Iranian regime and sends a message to Tel Aviv that Tehran will not tolerate crossing the red lines.”

Smyth of the Washington Institute believes that while “there may be a (grander) effort to demonstrate a new weapons capability by a proxy or even Iran itself,” Tehran’s response might also take a form similar to the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.




Houthi fighters are seen on board the British-owned Galaxy Leader ship that the Iran-backed militia seized as it passed through the Al-Mandab Strait off Yemen in November 23, 2024. (AFP/ File) 

“They’ve already demonstrated attempts to economically harm the Israelis by establishing quasi-blockades of the Red Sea by using the Houthis,” he said.

Meanwhile, communities across the Middle East can only wait with mounting concern for the seemingly inevitable Iranian response, mindful that they will likely bear the brunt of any resulting escalation.

Indeed, it is not so much a question of if, but when.

“The delay in response is mainly related to the indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington,” said Koulouriotis. “To prevent the Iranian response from leading to an expanded war or a more dangerous escalation in the region.”
 

 


Israel army says two soldiers killed in Gaza helicopter crash

Israel army says two soldiers killed in Gaza helicopter crash
Updated 5 sec ago
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Israel army says two soldiers killed in Gaza helicopter crash

Israel army says two soldiers killed in Gaza helicopter crash
JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said Wednesday that an army helicopter crashed in the south of war-ravaged Gaza overnight, killing two soldiers and injuring seven.
“An initial inquiry... indicates that the crash was not caused by enemy fire... Two IDF (Israeli) soldiers were killed as a result of the crash,” the military said in a statement, adding that the seven injured had been evacuated to hospital for treatment.
The military said it was investigating the cause of the crash, which occurred when the helicopter was landing near the southern city of Rafah.
The latest deaths bring the military’s losses in the Gaza campaign to 344 since the start of the ground offensive on October 27.
The war erupted after Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on October 7, resulting in the deaths of 1,205 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures, which also include hostages killed in captivity.
During the attack militants abducted 251 people, 97 of whom are still held in Gaza, including 33 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory military offensive has killed at least 41,020 people, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry, which does not provide details of civilian and militant deaths.
The United Nations human rights office says most of the dead in Gaza are women and children.

UK suspends electronics visas for Jordanians over ‘violations’

UK suspends electronics visas for Jordanians over ‘violations’
Updated 11 September 2024
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UK suspends electronics visas for Jordanians over ‘violations’

UK suspends electronics visas for Jordanians over ‘violations’

AMMAN: The British Embassy in Amman has notified the Jordanian foreign ministry that it was suspending the visa-exempt status for Jordanian nationals wishing to travel to the UK, state news agency Petra reported.
The Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) facilitates the granting visas to visitors including Jordanians was being suspended due to ‘continued violations’ by Jordanian visitors to the UK, according to a statement.
The ETA was first launched on Nov. 15, 2023, for nationals of Qatar, before being expanded in February 2024 to include nationals of Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan), Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah said there has been “continued misuse” despite efforts by Jordanian Embassy officials in London to explore solutions with British authorities to the violations of Jordanian travelers of British residency and immigration laws.
The British decision is subject to amendment in the future and discussions are ongoing with the British to re-enact the ETA under conditions that would address violations, Qudah added.
The UK Home Office said the change was being made because the number of asylum claims from Jordanians increased from 17 in Oct. 2023 to 261 in June 2024.


Iran threatens ‘action’ over new Western sanctions

Iran threatens ‘action’ over new Western sanctions
Updated 11 September 2024
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Iran threatens ‘action’ over new Western sanctions

Iran threatens ‘action’ over new Western sanctions
  • Iran again denied it had delivered any weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war

TEHRAN: Iran has vowed to respond to fresh sanctions imposed by Britain, France and Germany over what they said was its supply of short-range missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine.
“This action of the three European countries is the continuation of the hostile policy of the West and economic terrorism against the people of Iran, which will face the appropriate and proportionate action of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said in a statement late Tuesday.
The three governments had announced they would take steps to cancel air services agreements with Iran and “work toward imposing sanctions on Iran Air.”
“In addition, we will pursue the designations of significant entities and individuals involved with Iran’s ballistic missile program and the transfer of ballistic missiles and other weapons to Russia,” they added.
Iran again denied it had delivered any weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.
“Any claim that the Islamic Republic of Iran has sold ballistic missiles to the Russian Federation is completely baseless and false,” Kanani said.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia had received shipments of ballistic missiles from Iran and “will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine.”
He added that dozens of Russian military personnel have received training in Iran on using the Fath-360 missile, which has a range of 120 kilometers (75 miles).


Iran’s president visits Iraq on first foreign trip

Iran’s president visits Iraq on first foreign trip
Updated 22 min 56 sec ago
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Iran’s president visits Iraq on first foreign trip

Iran’s president visits Iraq on first foreign trip
  • Tehran has been steadily increasing its sway in Iraq since a US-led invasion toppled its enemy Saddam Hussein in 2003

TEHRAN: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in Baghdad on Wednesday, making an official visit to Iraq, a strategic ally of both Tehran and Washington, Iran’s state media said.
Iraq hosts several Iran-aligned parties and armed groups, as Tehran has steadily increased its sway in the major oil producer since a US-led invasion toppled its enemy Saddam Hussein in 2003.
A rare partner of both the United States and Iran, Iraq hosts 2,500 US troops and has Iran-backed militias linked to its security forces. It has suffered escalating tit-for-tat attacks since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in Gaza in October.
“We are planning to sign several agreements,” Iran’s state media quoted Pezeshkian, a relative moderate, as saying ahead of the visit, his first official foreign trip. “We will meet senior Iraqi officials in Baghdad.”
The United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq, say sources familiar with the matter.
Iran-aligned militia groups in Iraq have repeatedly attacked US troops in the Middle East since the Gaza war began.
State media have said Pezeshkian also plans to visit Iraqi Kurdistan, a region where Iran has carried out strikes in the past, saying it is used as a staging ground for Iranian separatist groups as well as agents of its arch-foe Israel.
Baghdad has tried to tackle Iranian concerns over regional separatist groups, moving to relocate some members in a 2023 security pact with Tehran.
“We have several co-operation areas, including political, regional ... and security issues,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said ahead of the president’s trip, according to state media.


Palestine takes up seat among UN member states in ‘historic moment’ at General Assembly opening session

Palestine takes up seat among UN member states in ‘historic moment’ at General Assembly opening session
Updated 11 September 2024
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Palestine takes up seat among UN member states in ‘historic moment’ at General Assembly opening session

Palestine takes up seat among UN member states in ‘historic moment’ at General Assembly opening session
  • UN resolution passed in May recognized Palestine met requirements for membership
  • Palestine was granted additional rights at UN, including being seated with member states

NEW YORK CITY: Palestine took up its seat among UN members at the opening session of the organization’s General Assembly on Tuesday.

A UN resolution was passed in May that recognized Palestine met requirements for membership, and requested the Security Council reconsider admitting the state.

Palestine was granted additional rights at the UN, including being seated with member states, the right to introduce proposals and agenda items, and participate in committees, but it has not been granted the right to vote.

Tuesday’s symbolic event met with support from the Egyptian delegation, which tabled a point of order to point out the “historic moment,” but it was opposed by the Israelis, who raised a counter point of order.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the 79th session was opening amid the backdrop of a “world in trouble,” but stressed that member states could work together to do something about it.

He said: “From day one, the United Nations has been the place for multilateral solutions, grounded in collaboration, dialog, diplomacy and the United Nations Charter.

“And it has been the place where respect for one another, and for the dignity and human rights that belong to every member of the human family, are brought to life. As we welcome this 79th session, these tasks now fall to you.

“This is the place where solutions are made and we need solutions across the board.”

Delegates of member states line up to greet Riyad Mansour, top right, Palestinian Ambassador to the United Nations, as he arrives for the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly. (AP)

He addressed a range of topics, including economic progress, climate change and artificial intelligence.

He added: “Step by step, solution by solution, we can rebuild trust and faith in one another, and in what we can accomplish through collaboration and solidarity.

“The values that have brought us together since 1945 are more essential than ever. In confronting the challenges before us, (the UN General Assembly) remains an indispensable tool and a vital pathway toward a peaceful and just future for all people.”

The session was presided over by Philemon Yang of Cameroon, who was elected president of the General Assembly earlier this year.

Yang outlined the topics he expected to dominate discussions at this year’s assembly, including working toward peace and security, climate change, sustainable development, global health and human rights.

This year’s General Debate, which will run from Sept. 24 to 30, boasts the theme “Leaving no one behind: Acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development and human dignity for present and future generations.”

As well as the debate, there will be a Summit of the Future, which will aim to secure a negotiated “Pact for the Future” designed to boost global cooperation to tackle current challenges effectively for future generations.

There will also be high-level meetings on topics as wide-ranging as the elimination of nuclear weapons; addressing the threat posed by rising sea levels; and strengthening global health systems against antimicrobial resistance.