Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA

Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA
Lower oil demand in the coming years will ease market strains, according to IEA.
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Updated 12 June 2024
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Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA

Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA

RIYADH: Global oil demand growth is expected to slow in the coming years as the world continues its energy transition journey, according to a new analysis.

In its latest report, the International Energy Agency said that the world will witness an oil demand growth of 1 million barrels per day in 2024, a projection that contradicts the forecast of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. 

On June 11, OPEC said that oil demand globally would rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024, driven by growth in markets like China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America. 

In its analysis, IEA noted that lower oil demand in the coming years will ease market strains and push spare capacity toward levels unseen outside of the COVID-19 crisis. 

“As the pandemic rebound loses steam, clean energy transitions advance, and the structure of China’s economy shifts, growth in global oil demand is slowing down and set to reach its peak by 2030. This year, we expect demand to rise by around 1 million barrels per day,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of IEA. 

Birol noted that oil companies should prepare to navigate the changes currently occurring in the energy sector. 

“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” added Birol. 

The report also highlighted that surging sales of electric vehicles and the substitution of oil with renewables or gas in the power sector will significantly curb oil use in road transport and electricity generation.




Consumption of liquefied petroleum gas is set to grow, according to the IEA. Shutterstock

Emerging economies to drive oil demand in coming years

According to the report, global oil demand, which includes biofuels, averaged just over 102 million bpd in 2023 and will level off near 106 million bpd toward the end of this decade.

“Despite the slowdown in growth, global oil demand is still forecast to be 3.2 million bpd higher in 2030 than in 2023 unless stronger policy measures are implemented or changes in behavior take hold,” noted the energy think tank. 

The agency said that the increase is set to be driven by emerging economies in Asia — especially higher oil use for transport in India — and greater use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the booming petrochemicals industry, notably in China. 

Moreover, consumption of naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane will climb by 3.7 million bpd between 2023 and 2030, driven by growth in LPG use for clean cooking.

However, oil demand in advanced economies is expected to continue its decades-long decline, falling from close to 46 million bpd in 2023 to less than 43 million bpd by 2030. 

“Apart from during the pandemic, the last time oil demand from advanced economies was that low was in 1991,” IEA added. 

According to the report, producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will lead the expansion of global production capacity to meet this anticipated demand primarily in emerging economies, accounting for three-quarters of the expected increase to 2030.

“The US alone is poised to account for 2.1 million bpd of non-OPEC+ gains, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana contribute a further 2.7 million bpd. The report’s forecast finds that as the flow of approved projects fizzles out toward the end of this decade, capacity growth slows and then stalls among the leading non-OPEC+ producers,” the report said. 

It added: “However if companies continue to approve additional projects already on the drawing board, a further 1.3 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ capacity could become operational by 2030.” 




OPEC is more optimistic about oil demand growth. Shutterstock

An outlook of refining capacity

The report highlighted that global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3 million bpd between 2023 and 2030, well below historical trends.

IEA added that this growth should be sufficient to meet the demand for refined oil products during this period, given a concurrent surge in the supply of non-refined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids. 

The energy agency further pointed out that refiners will need to progressively modify their product output to meet divergent trends for distillates as gasoline demand falls amid an increase in the market share of electric vehicles while jet fuel consumption rises. 

According to IEA, non-refined fuel products are set to capture more than 75 percent of the projected demand growth over the 2023-2030 period. 

“This significant rise in non-refinery product supplies will add pressure on operating rates and refinery profitability, especially in mature demand centers. That raises the prospect of further capacity closures by the end of the decade,” said the report. 

It added: “Capacity growth will remain concentrated in Asia, most notably in China and India, but post‑2027, there are signs of expansions slowing.” 

OPEC confident about oil demand growth

Amid IEA’s projected slowdown in oil demand growth, OPEC is optimistic about the future, and the producers’ alliance believes its forecast is more accurate. 

Speaking at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg on June 6, Haitham Al-Ghais, secretary-general of OPEC, said that the world will witness continued oil demand growth in the coming years. 

“Last year, OPEC’s forecast for oil demand was the best. And all those who criticized OPEC’s forecast kept adjusting their number throughout the year,” said Al-Ghais. 

He also made it clear that energy sources of all kinds are necessary for the future, and efforts should be taken to reduce emissions. 

“By 2030, we have a statistical projection that 600 million people will move to new cities, as a part of urbanization. This puts everything into context. We need all sources of energy. We should not discriminate any sources of energy. The focus should be on tackling emissions,” said Al-Ghais. 


IMF warns of economic slowdown, but rules out global recession

IMF warns of economic slowdown, but rules out global recession
Updated 44 sec ago
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IMF warns of economic slowdown, but rules out global recession

IMF warns of economic slowdown, but rules out global recession

WASHINGTON: Rising trade tensions and sweeping shifts in the global trading system will trigger downward revisions of the IMF’s economic forecasts but no global recession is expected, the lender’s managing director said on Thursday.

Kristalina Georgieva said countries’ economies were being tested by a reboot of the global trading system — sparked in recent months by US tariffs and retaliation by China and the EU — that had unleashed “off the charts” uncertainty in trade policy and extreme volatility in financial markets.

“Disruptions entail costs ... our new growth projections will include notable markdowns but not recession,” she said in prepared remarks, adding the outlook would also include higher inflation forecasts for some countries.

“To quote from the ‘Wizard of Oz,’ we’re not in Kansas anymore,” Georgieva told IMF staff and reporters at the IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week.

Elevated uncertainty also raised the risk of financial market stress, Georgieva said, noting that recent movements in US Treasury yield curves should be taken as a warning. “Everyone suffers if financial conditions worsen,” she said.

US President Donald Trump has upended the global trading system with a tsunami of new tariffs, including a 10 percent US duty on goods from all countries and higher rates for some, although those have been paused for 90 days to allow negotiations. China, the EU and other countries have announced retaliatory measures.

The IIMF in January forecast global growth of 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.3 percent in 2026. It will release an updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.

Georgieva, speaking at IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank next week, gave no details about the expected revisions, but warned that prolonged uncertainty would be costly and said the consequences of the trade reboot would be “significant.”

Georgieva said trade tensions had been bubbling for some time, but were now boiling over, and urged countries to respond wisely to the “sudden and sweeping shifts” seen in tariffs, driving the US effective tariff rate to levels last seen several lifetimes ago and resulting in response by other countries.

“As the giants face off, smaller countries are caught in the cross currents,” Georgieva said. China, the EU and the US were the world’s three largest importers, which meant big spillovers for smaller countries that were more exposed to tighter financial conditions, she said.

Rising tariffs hit growth upfront, she said, noting that past evidence showed that higher tariff rates were paid by importers through lower profits and consumers through higher costs.

In big economies, they could also create incentives for new inward investment, creating new jobs, but this took time.

“Protectionism erodes productivity over the long run, especially in smaller economies,” she said, warning that moves to shield industry from competition also undercut entrepreneurship and hurt innovation.

Georgieva urge countries to continue economic and financial reforms while maintaining agile and credible monetary policy, as well as strong financial market regulation and supervision.

Emerging market economies should preserve their exchange rate flexibility, and donor countries should better protect aid flows to vulnerable low-income countries, she added.

Georgieva also called for cooperation in an increasingly multi-polar world, and urged the largest economies to reach a trade settlement that preserved openness and restarted a global trend toward lower tariff rates and reduced non-tariff barriers.

“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she said. “All countries, large and small alike, can and should play their part to strengthen the global economy in an era of more frequent and severe shocks.”


Libyans grapple with fresh currency devaluation

Libyans grapple with fresh currency devaluation
Updated 32 min 12 sec ago
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Libyans grapple with fresh currency devaluation

Libyans grapple with fresh currency devaluation
  • Libyans are facing a sharp deterioration in their purchasing power after a sudden devaluation of the Libyan dinar
  • Libya has Africa’s most abundant hydrocarbon reserves, but it is struggling to recover from years of conflict since 2011

TRIPOLI: Already worn down by years of political turmoil and economic hardships, Libyans are now facing a sharp deterioration in their purchasing power after a sudden devaluation of the Libyan dinar.
Experts have said the national currency’s exchange rate decline came as a consequence of ballooning public expenditures by the country’s rival governments in recent years.
Libya has Africa’s most abundant hydrocarbon reserves, but it is struggling to recover from years of conflict after the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi.
It is currently divided between a UN-recognized government in the capital Tripoli and a rival administration in the east backed by general Khalifa Haftar, with the division exacerbating the country’s economic woes.
The Libyan central bank earlier this month devalued the dinar by 13.3 percent, the second such move in five years.
The exchange rate went up to 5.56 dinars to the US dollar from 4.48 — while on the black market it jumped to 7.80 dinars to the US dollar from 6.90.

It has become hard to keep up with our needs for food, medicine, transportation, education and bills

Karim Achraf, Libyan engineer

The impact was immediate, with small business owners and wholesale traders, who rely heavily on the parallel market to obtain foreign currency for imports, seeing their costs surge.
“The currency keeps going down,” said Karim Achraf, a 27-year-old engineer and father of three living in the capital, Tripoli.
“It has become hard to keep up with our needs for food, medicine, transportation, education and bills,” he said.
“We can’t trust our governments with our economy and safety.”
Political deadlock
Despite its vast oil reserves, output remains below pre-2011 levels and the country lacks a robust industrial and agricultural sector.
It is almost entirely dependent on imported food, medical supplies and consumer goods, with oil exports its main source of revenue.
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has expressed alarm following the sudden devaluation, urging both administrations to take “urgent measures to stabilize the national economy.”
“Swift action is essential to reduce the negative impact on the Libyan people, including rising costs of living, declining purchasing power and the erosion of public trust in state institutions and leaders,” it said in a statement.
In Tripoli, dozens of protesters recently gathered outside the central bank headquarters to voice their anger.

Libya's central bank was forced to make the decision to protect what remained of the dinar’s strength

Mahmoud El-Tijani, an economist

But while much of the criticism has been aimed at the bank, some believe it is unfairly blamed for problems stemming from political deadlock and fiscal mismanagement.
Mahmoud El-Tijani, a Libyan economist, said the central bank was “a victim of the executive branch’s failure and division.”
He said it was “forced to make the decision to protect what remained of the dinar’s strength.”
Amid falling oil revenues, the devaluation of the dinar was used as a “last-chance measure to avoid bankruptcy and external debt,” he added.
Libya’s institutions, including its central bank, have for a decade found themselves caught between the rival governments.
Until 2023, the bank was split in two, with an internationally recognized headquarters in the capital and another in the east, with each printing bills signed off by their respective governors.
Last year, the then-governor of the bank fled amid violent tensions surrounding the institution, with the United Nations stepping in to broker a deal for a new governor to be appointed.
Central bank
Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said the central bank was “simply confronting the inevitable consequences of the political choices made by Libya’s ruling factions.”
“These enormous expenditures are highly political, arbitrary, and unsustainable,” he said.
“They are not decided by the central bank, which is a technocratic institution without the military or sociopolitical clout of Libya’s leaders.”
“Blaming the central bank is pure populism,” Harchaoui added, describing the bank as “a scapegoat.”
Anwar Al-Turki, a banker in Tripoli, said the central bank was being “mistreated” by political leaders who had authorized “the highest public spending in modern Libyan history.”
He said the decision makers had little regard for “good governance, financial compliance, or anti-corruption.”


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,502

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,502
Updated 17 April 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,502

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,502

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Thursday, losing 81.44 points, or 0.7 percent, to close at 11,552.98.

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.72 billion ($1.25 billion), as 44 stocks advanced, while only 202 retreated.

The MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 10.51 points, or 0.71 percent, to close at 1,469.39.

The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, dipped, losing 369.85 points, or 1.27 percent, to close at 28,713.72. This comes as 29 stocks advanced while 60 retreated.

This aligns with a dip in global stock markets with the ongoing worldwide trade war following US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier this month.

For instance, the Nasdaq index dipped 3.07 percent in the trading session on April 16, closing at 16,307.16, losing 516.01 points.

The best-performing stock was Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund with its share price surging by 10 percent to SR6.60.

Other top performers included Dar Alarkan Real Estate Development Co., which saw its share price rise by 3.82 percent to SR22.84, and Allied Cooperative Insurance Group, which saw a 3.44 percent increase to SR16.22.

Al Mawarid Manpower Co. and Jabal Omar Development Co. also saw increases in today’s trading session, with their share prices advancing by 2.10 percent and 1.82 percent to SR145.60 and SR23.52, respectively.

The day’s worst performer was Al-Baha Investment and Development Co., whose share price fell 5.74 percent to SR3.12.

Middle East Specialized Cables Co. and Lazurde Co. for Jewelry also saw declines, with their shares dropping by 4.83 percent each to SR35.50 and SR13.40, respectively.

The top four and five worst performers were Raoom Trading Co. and Saudi Printing and Packaging Co., whose share prices dipped by 4.48 percent and 4.36 percent to SR78.90 and SR10.52, respectively.


Red Sea tensions slash Suez Canal revenue as Egypt pushes diplomatic path

Red Sea tensions slash Suez Canal revenue as Egypt pushes diplomatic path
Updated 17 April 2025
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Red Sea tensions slash Suez Canal revenue as Egypt pushes diplomatic path

Red Sea tensions slash Suez Canal revenue as Egypt pushes diplomatic path

JEDDAH: Amid escalating tensions in the Red Sea, Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly reaffirmed the country’s commitment to diplomatic solutions as disruptions to international shipping through the Suez Canal led to a dip in revenues.

Speaking at a high-level ceremony on April 16 celebrating the Suez Canal Authority’s Day of Excellence, Madbouly warned that regional instability has already had a significant impact on global trade, with Suez Canal revenues falling to $3.99 billion in 2024 — a stark drop from the record $10.25 billion recorded in 2023.

The decline follows a wave of attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, part of the group’s protest against the Gaza conflict. Between November 2023 and January 2024, they targeted over 100 merchant vessels.

Despite these challenges, Madbouly emphasized Egypt’s role as a stabilizing force, asserting that Cairo has deliberately avoided any actions that might undermine regional security. “Egypt has opted for a path of political solutions, working with international partners to address the crisis while ensuring the continued functioning of the canal,” he said in a statement.

The prime minister described the canal as “the heart of global trade,” underlining its historic and strategic value not only to Egypt but to international commerce.

He credited President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s leadership for ongoing development efforts, including modernizing the canal’s infrastructure and services.

The Suez Canal Authority also unveiled several new initiatives during the ceremony, including a ship waste management service in partnership with V Group, which aims to position the canal as a certified green route by 2030. Additional projects launched included the region’s first floating pontoon factory and the Suez Canal Innovation and Excellence Center.

In a show of international cooperation, Madbouly witnessed the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Spain’s Tejedor Lazaro Group to advance aquaculture and fish feed production — a move aligned with Egypt’s broader food security and investment strategy.

SCA Chairman Osama Rabie thanked the government for its backing and pointed to signs of recovery. He said 264 vessels had returned to transiting the canal instead of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope since February, attributing this shift to adaptive marketing strategies and client engagement.

March 2025 brought modest gains: vessel transits rose by 2.4 percent, net tonnage increased by 7.1 percent, and revenue grew by 8.8 percent compared to January.

Despite headwinds including the COVID-19 pandemic and regional conflicts, Rabie highlighted the canal’s resilience. From 2019 to 2024, more than 121,000 ships passed through the waterway, carrying over 7.1 billion tons of cargo and generating nearly $40 billion in revenue.

The Day of Excellence event was attended by several ministers, foreign ambassadors, and maritime officials, underscoring the canal’s global relevance.


Pakistan external account posts record monthly surplus, buoying investor confidence

Pakistan external account posts record monthly surplus, buoying investor confidence
Updated 17 April 2025
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Pakistan external account posts record monthly surplus, buoying investor confidence

Pakistan external account posts record monthly surplus, buoying investor confidence
  • Current account posts a record and one of the highest monthly surpluses in March 2025 with $1.19 billion, up 229% year-on-year
  • Pakistan stocks concluded Thursday’s session on bullish note, with KSE-100 Index advancing by 881 points to close at 116,901 level

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan said on Thursday the country’s current account, which comprises external trade and transfers, had posted a record and one of the highest monthly surpluses in March 2025 with $1.19 billion, up 229% year-on-year.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange also concluded Thursday’s session on a bullish note, with the KSE-100 Index advancing by 881 points, or 0.76%, to close at 116,901 level. 
“Investor sentiment was buoyed by record-high remittances, which contributed to a historic current account surplus in March 2025. The surplus for the first nine months of FY25 reached $1.9 billion,” Topline securities said in a statement. 
The surplus in March 2024 stood at $363 million, the latest central bank data showed. 
On Monday, Central Bank governor Jameel Ahmad had said the current account would show a “substantial” surplus this year through June mainly on the back of a record inflow of remittances which crossed the $4 billion mark in March, with Saudi Arabia once again topping the list of biggest contributors.
“With record monthly surplus in March 2025, cumulative surplus in country’s Current Account for 9MFY25 (Jul-Mar25) now stands at $1.86 billion, which was in a deficit of $1.65 billion in the same period last year,” SBP said. 
In March 2025, Pakistan’s exports recorded at $3.51 billion, growing 8.7% YoY and 6.0% MoM. Imports also rose 8.0% YoY to $5.92 billion in March but fell 1.9% MoM.
“Resultantly, while Trade Deficit (Goods+Services) went up 7% YoY, it narrowed 11.5% MoM in March 2025,” the data showed. 
For 9MFY25 (Jul-Mar25), total exports now stand at $30.9 billion, up 8.1% YoY, while total imports stand at $51.9 billion, up 10.7% YoY, with the cumulative trade deficit at $21.1 billion, up 14.7% YoY. 
“With oil prices down, and remittances continuing to make a record mark, Pakistan’s current account is expected to be in deep surplus by June FY25 and may also continue in FY26, thereby resulting in further scale-up in overall investor confidence,” the central bank said. 
Pakistan received a record-high $4.1 billion in remittances in March 2025, which bodes well for the government’s efforts to revive an economy that it expects will expand three percent this year, SBP governor Ahmad said at an event at the Pakistan Stock Exchange in Karachi on Monday.
The central bank had earlier projected economic growth to range from 2.5% to 3.5%.
“With this level of remittances, we are hoping that for the current fiscal year our current account will stay in surplus,” the governor said. “There will be a substantial surplus and this surplus is the best performance, I will say, on the external account during the last two decades.”
The country broke its own record in February when overseas Pakistanis remitted $3.1 billion.