IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025
Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade. (Reuters/File)
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Updated 22 October 2024
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IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025

IEA predicts oil supply surplus amid weak China demand in 2025
  • Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

RIYADH: The International Energy Agency forecasts weak oil demand growth in China for 2025, despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing. 

As the world’s second-largest economy shifts toward electrifying its car fleet and experiences slower growth, this trend is expected to continue, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Historically, China has driven over 60 percent of global oil demand growth over the past decade, with an average economic growth rate of 6.1 percent. However, Birol noted that with the economy projected to grow around 4 percent, energy needs are likely to decline. He highlighted that the demand for electric vehicles, now competitive with traditional cars, will contribute to this decrease.

Birol remarked that the impact of China’s fiscal stimulus has been less significant than anticipated, stating, “It will be very difficult to see a major uptick in Chinese oil demand.” 

Global oil prices are currently around $70 per barrel, having dropped over 7 percent last week, even amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Birol pointed out that one reason for the muted price reaction is the weak demand observed this year, with expectations of continued weakness next year. 

He noted that without the petrochemical sector, Chinese oil demand would have remained flat.

Additionally, increased supply from non-OPEC producers — such as the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana — outpaces global oil demand growth, further limiting price increases. 

When asked about the possibility of OPEC+ unwinding production cuts in 2025, Birol stated that the decision lies with OPEC, but he anticipates a surplus in the oil market next year unless significant geopolitical changes occur.

Brent crude futures rose by $1.16, or 1.6 percent, to reach $74.22 a barrel at 10:36 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $1.32, or 1.9 percent, settling at $70.54 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI experienced significant declines last week, with Brent falling over 7 percent and WTI losing around 8 percent.


Saudi Arabia a key player in global energy transition, says IRENA chief

Saudi Arabia a key player in global energy transition, says IRENA chief
Updated 03 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia a key player in global energy transition, says IRENA chief

Saudi Arabia a key player in global energy transition, says IRENA chief

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is set to deepen its collaboration with the International Renewable Energy Agency to advance sustainability initiatives, according to a senior official. 

Speaking to Arab News on the sidelines of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification COP16, Francesco La Camera, director-general of IRENA, stated that Saudi Arabia is a key leader in transitioning away from fossil fuels, thanks to the Kingdom’s Green Initiative. 

He also highlighted global progress in renewable energy, noting that last year saw a record increase in capacity, driven by advancements in green hydrogen and sustainable biomass.

“We are working on signing an agreement with the GCC countries, so we will see when we will be ready. We will announce that we are working more closely with Saudi Arabia on our topics and our area of interest,” La Camera said. 

He added: “Just to give you an example now, ACWA Power is a Saudi company, but it is the elite company for decentralization. They invest in 12 different countries, and this is something amazing, and this is an effort also outside the country to work for the energy transition, providing water in a country that stresses all this.” 

The IRENA director-general stressed the importance of all nations, including Saudi Arabia, to increase efforts, with the expectation that updated national climate contributions will be submitted before February 2025. 

“Everyone has to do more, so we expect to see also the national climate contribution to be presented before February 2025. We also hope that our presence at COP will allow us to have more discussion and to increase the level of engagement of Saudi in the work of IRENA,” La Camera said. 

He added: “We think that, inevitably, Saudi is a leading country on all of this. It has the potential. It has the resources. It has the leadership to go faster and scale in the energy transition.” 

La Camera also outlined a strategy to address the structural challenges hindering the deployment of renewable energy at the speed and scale required to meet global energy and climate goals. 

The focus is on overcoming infrastructure barriers by creating interconnected, flexible, and balanced grids that can support a higher integration of renewable energy. 

This is where regional collaboration comes in, which is essential to achieving this objective. 

“I emphasize the role of the infrastructure. We need groups that are interconnected, flexible, and balanced to allow more renewables. Regional collaboration is crucial,” La Camera said. 

During his keynote speech at the Saudi Green Initiative, La Camera spoke about the need to design the market in a way that is more favorable for renewables. 

“We need to strengthen the capacity of the distribution to deal with this through a system that is more distributed instead of centralized, and also the need to reskill the personnel that is moving from the fossil fuel to the renewable area,” he said. 

La Camera concluded the interview by highlighting IRENA’s long-term planning efforts, which are essential for aligning financial investments with the needs of the renewable energy sector. 


Saudi Arabia, France to collaborate on 3 renewable energy projects: Al-Falih

Saudi Arabia, France to collaborate on 3 renewable energy projects: Al-Falih
Updated 03 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia, France to collaborate on 3 renewable energy projects: Al-Falih

Saudi Arabia, France to collaborate on 3 renewable energy projects: Al-Falih

RIYADH: Three renewable energy projects are set to be developed in Saudi Arabia with the involvement of French companies, according to Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih.

The initiatives, which will be officially announced by the Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron, are part of the Kingdom’s growing efforts to lead the global transition toward sustainable energy. 

“I don’t know if the news is out, but I’ll break it in. There will be three major renewable projects announced by His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz and signed in the presence of President Macron,” Al-Falih said during the Saudi Green Initiative Forum held in Riyadh at COP16. 

Speaking on the broader shift toward sustainability, Al-Falih emphasized that green finance is central to the future of global investment, highlighting its alignment with Saudi Arabia’s vision for sustainable development. 

“Globally, I think the world today is really moving toward financing, investing, and supporting sustainability and energy and materials,” he said, emphasizing key areas such as water management and combating desertification. 

According to Al-Falih, trillions of dollars in annual investments are required globally to address these challenges. 

The minister remarked that the amount of capital across the world available for sustainable investments is vast and growing rapidly. 

“We estimate that as of last year, $3 trillion was the pool of money available last year. And I think what is more astonishing, what is more wow to me is it is projected to grow by a factor of seven of the $3 trillion by 2033, eight years. So the funds are there,” he said. 

He added that governments must play a key role in making investments attractive by de-risking them for private capital. 

“It needs to go to a place where there is demand, and demand is key,” he explained. “It needs governments and systems that (investors) can trust and that has all of the elements of stability, predictability. And we believe Saudi Arabia is that place for them to look at,” he said. 

The Kingdom is positioning itself as a global hub for green investment, backed by robust demand, investor trust, and stable governance. 

“The future of finance is green. It is green, which happens to be the color of our flag. It happens to be the theme of this great initiative His Highness has launched — Green Saudi, Green Middle East,” Al-Falih said, adding that the country provides a stable environment for investors by managing risks and offering predictable opportunities. 

Al-Falih also pointed to Saudi Arabia’s advances in renewable energy production, particularly wind and solar power, describing these sectors as a “win, win, win” for the nation. 

“The lowest hanging fruit, which we started with, and His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz is doubling down on in a massive way, is the green electrons producing electricity from wind and solar,” he said, explaining that these projects not only boost sustainability but also create economic opportunities. 

“This is for us, you know, win, win, win because we displace liquids that can be exported to places that need liquid hydrocarbons for that economic longevity.” 

In addition to renewable energy, Al-Falih highlighted the Kingdom’s rapid growth in venture capital and its efforts to foster a startup ecosystem. 

He also underlined that Saudi Arabia has risen to become the leading venture capital market in the Middle East, with VC growing “by a factor of 21 over the last few years.” 

The government has supported this growth through initiatives such as Biban, LEAP, and the Garage, a flagship incubator inspired by France’s STATION F. 

“We are awarding thousands of premium residencies to all of these entrepreneurs because we want them to feel at home,” he added. 

“The system of venturing and startups is not only linked to Saudi companies. I think what’s exciting is when we have our conferences. We just had Biban. A few months earlier, we had LEAP; hundreds, if not thousands, of startups came from around the world, and we’re licensing them at MISA (Ministry of Investment).” 

Al-Falih also underscored the Kingdom’s commitment to driving global green investment, envisioning Saudi Arabia as the primary hub for sustainable finance. 

“We will be launching many investment schemes around green investments. And as I mentioned, the future for finance is green, and the hub of that green investment is going to be in Saudi Arabia. And those funds will naturally flow to where the hub is, where the center of gravity is going to be,” he said. 


Oil Updates – prices nudge higher ahead of OPEC+ meeting

Oil Updates – prices nudge higher ahead of OPEC+ meeting
Updated 03 December 2024
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Oil Updates – prices nudge higher ahead of OPEC+ meeting

Oil Updates – prices nudge higher ahead of OPEC+ meeting

SINGAPORE: Oil prices nudged higher on Tuesday but remained within a narrow trading range, as traders awaited the outcome of an OPEC+ meeting later this week.

Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $72.14 a barrel by 10:04 a.m. Saudi time, after dropping 1 cent in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 26 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $68.36, following a 10 cent gain on Monday.

Sources from the producer group said it will extend its latest round of output cuts until the end of the first quarter at its Dec. 5 meeting.

“Given a rise in compliance with production cuts from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq, the lower Brent price level, and indications in press reports, we assume an extension of OPEC+ production cuts till April,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, has been looking to unwind production cuts by the first quarter of 2025. However, the outlook for surplus supply has put pressure on prices. The group accounts for about half of the world’s oil production.

“I think there’s no other option but to defer it,” Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova said, adding that it could only be for just a month or so as there is a lot of pressure from participating nations to ramp up output.

Amid a lack of bullish catalysts and lacklustre demand, Sachdeva expects oil prices to trade in a limited range with a bias toward the downside.

The consumption outlook remains weak with China’s crude imports expected to peak as soon as next year as transport fuel demand begins to decline for the world’s top crude buyer, researchers and analysts said, further exacerbating the gap between demand and supply.

Concerns that the US Federal Reserve may not cut rates at its December meeting have also capped oil prices, offsetting positive signals from China, where the purchasing managers’ index rose to a seven-month high in November.

Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell more than 3 percent last week.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, whose views are often a bellwether for US monetary policy, said he was inclined to support another rate cut this month, but Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic maintained that the Fed still needed to consider upcoming jobs data.

In the Middle East, holes continued to appear in a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and militant group Hezbollah, with nine people killed in strikes on two southern Lebanese towns shortly after Hezbollah fired missiles on an Israeli military position in the disputed Shebaa Farms area on Monday.

US crude oil stockpiles are expected to have fallen last week while gasoline and distillate inventories likely rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration will release weekly data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.


Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Updated 02 December 2024
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Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

Oil Updates – crude rises on upbeat China data, shaky Israel-Lebanon ceasefire

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by strong factory activity in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, and heightened tensions in the Middle East as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement.

Brent crude futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.79 percent, to $72.41 a barrel by 10:00 a.m. Saudi time while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.58 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.85 percent.

“Oil prices have managed to stabilize into the new week, with the continued expansion in China’s manufacturing activities reflecting some degree of policy success from recent stimulus efforts,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

This offered slight relief that oil demand from China may hold for now, he added.

A private-sector survey showed China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November, boosting Chinese firms’ optimism just as US President-elect Donald Trump ramps up his trade threats.

Still, traders are eyeing developments in Syria, weighing if they could widen tension across the Middle East, Yeap said.

A truce between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Wednesday, but each side accused the other of breaching the ceasefire.

In a statement, the Lebanese health ministry said several people were wounded in two Israeli strikes in south Lebanon. Air strikes also intensified in Syria, as President Bashar Assad vowed to crush insurgents who had swept into the city of Aleppo.

Last week, both benchmarks suffered a weekly decline of more than 3 percent, on easing concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and forecasts of surplus supply in 2025, even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, postponed its meeting to Dec. 5 and is discussing delaying its oil output hike due to start in January, OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week.

This week’s meeting will decide policy for the early months of 2025.

“The extension of output cuts would allow OPEC+ more time to assess the impact of Trump’s policy announcements with regards to tariffs and energy and also to see what China’s response will be,” said Tony Sycamore, IG’s Sydney-based market analyst.

Since the group’s production hike had been widely expected, the market’s focus may be on the extent of delay to sway crude prices, said IG’s Yeap, adding: “An indefinite delay may be the best case for oil prices, given that earlier rounds of delays by a month or so have failed to drive higher oil prices in line with what OPEC+ intended.”

Brent is expected to average $74.53 per barrel in 2025 as economic weakness in China clouds the demand picture and ample global supplies outweigh support from an expected delay to a planned OPEC+ output hike, a Reuters monthly oil price poll showed on Friday.

That is the seventh straight downward revision in the 2025 consensus for the global benchmark, which has averaged $80 per barrel so far in 2024.


Japan’s Saudi crude oil imports reach 41.8% of October total

Japan’s Saudi crude oil imports reach 41.8% of October total
Updated 01 December 2024
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Japan’s Saudi crude oil imports reach 41.8% of October total

Japan’s Saudi crude oil imports reach 41.8% of October total

TOKYO: Japan’s imports of Saudi oil in October 2024 amounted to 27.8 million barrels, a significant 41.8 percent of the total, according to the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Agency of Natural Resources and Energy.

During October, Japan imported 66.53 million barrels, of which the Arab share was 97.8 percent or 65.06 million barrels.

The strategic importance of Arab countries in Japan’s energy security is highlighted by their significant contribution to Japan’s oil imports. The main contribution was from four Arab countries — the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar — as well as the neutral zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The UAE emerged as the largest supplier, providing 31.8 million barrels, which accounted for 47.8 percent of the total imports. Qatar and Kuwait followed, contributing 2.7 million barrels (4.1 percent) and 2.04 million barrels (3.1 percent), respectively. The neutral zone, a smaller supplier, provided 1.1 percent of Japan’s total imports.

Japan’s geopolitical decisions continue to shape its oil imports. With a ban on oil imports from Iran and Russia, the rest of its oil imports in October were sourced from Central and South America (0.9 percent), Southeast Asia (0.8 percent), Oceania (0.3 percent), and the US (0.2 percent).

This article also appears on Arab News Japan