Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar
Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China. (AP)
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Updated 28 October 2024
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Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar
  • Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China
  • “To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost”

BANGKOK: Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.
The military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.
“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.
“To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost.”
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy.
The army’s takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers barred from taking their seats after the army takeover.
But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.
Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.
Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.
Myanmar’s military has been pushed back to the country’s center
A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory. It starts in Rakhine state in the west, runs across the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.
“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together to the extent we could, but it has been easier than expected so we’ve been able to conquer more quickly.”
Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and of the city of Lashio, which had been home to the military’s Northeast Command.
“The 1027 offensive was a highly impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because basically they were able to dismantle the military’s network of fire-support bases across northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.
“And then, once the military’s artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”
A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.
The military has been weakened, but not defeated
The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the first days of the 1027 offensive, stave off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an assault by one ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.
Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its complete air superiority.
But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, in the center of the country.
And where they might be out-gunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the last year, said the Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s Lway Yay Oo.
“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can reinforce the fighting operation,” she said.
Thet Swe, a spokesperson for the military regime, conceded it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it has gained.
“We cannot take it back during one year,” he told the AP in an emailed answer to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message ... in (the) coming two or three years.”
Civilian casualties rise as the military turns more to indiscriminate strikes
As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95 percent increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170 percent increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians whom it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that is only turning more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator for the SAC-M group.
“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect that they want it to have,” she said. “It’s making them even more hated by the population and really strengthening the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it’s known.”
Military spokesperson Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups that were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN
At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, hindering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar.
“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim, and we anticipate that the deteriorating situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.
In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, like northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing has been involved in fighting the military.
“In October of last year the military convoys that were going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation there have been almost no major military activities.”
Success brings new tensions between resistance groups
As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future strife should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.
In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA took it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring Chin forces in to help administer the area.
“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not military means.”
At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.
Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.
“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”
Chinese interests and ties with both sides complicate the picture
Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful bid to largely shut down organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.
In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted for five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.
China has been displeased with the development, shutting down border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a thus-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.
Its support for the regime also seems to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which wasn’t involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.
There is no evidence that the UWSA has done that, however.
“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.
“They have their own objectives which they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that’s apparent in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”
Because of the grassroot support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.
“No matter who is putting pressure on us, we are winning because of the power of the people,” he said.


Bangladesh boosts border security as Arakan Army claims control of Myanmar’s Rakhine

Bangladesh boosts border security as Arakan Army claims control of Myanmar’s Rakhine
Updated 19 sec ago
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Bangladesh boosts border security as Arakan Army claims control of Myanmar’s Rakhine

Bangladesh boosts border security as Arakan Army claims control of Myanmar’s Rakhine
  • Arakan Army announced it had captured the last Myanmar army outpost in north Rakhine
  • Bangladeshi authorities have been recording heavy gunfire on the Myanmar side of the border

DHAKA: Bangladeshi authorities said on Thursday they had strengthened security along the border with Myanmar after one of the most powerful ethnic minority armies claimed full control of the frontier.

The Arakan Army, a powerful ethnic militia in Rakhine, announced earlier this week that it had captured the last Myanmar army outpost in the border town of Maungdaw, allowing the group to completely control the northern state.

Rakhine has become a focal point in Myanmar’s nationwide civil war, in which opposition groups and ethnic militias are fighting the military junta that ousted the country’s elected government in a coup in 2021.

By taking over the northern region, the Arakan Army now controls the entire 270-km border with Bangladesh.

“The Arakan Army has (started) taking control over the Bangladesh-Myanmar border around one year back ... Now, the Arakan Army has taken over the control of its remaining parts,” said Maj. Syed Ishtiaq Morshed, commander of the Border Guard Bangladesh in Teknaf subdistrict, which shares a border with Myanmar, opposite the town of Maungdaw.

“We don’t have any direct contact with the Arakan Army as they are not any legal or recognized entity ... We have strengthened our monitoring and patrols in border areas to prevent any sort of further intrusion.”

Morshed told Arab News that the Bangladesh Navy, Naval Police, Coast Guard, and the Rapid Action Battalion elite police force have also been deployed to the border region to “prevent any law and order situation” inside Bangladeshi territory.

“We are hearing the sound of gun battles from the other side of the border every day,” he said.

Clashes between Myanmar’s military-controlled government forces and the ethnic militia started in late October 2023, with a multi-pronged offensive against the junta. Fighting has intensified in the past few weeks.

“For the last two weeks, we have heard the sound of the heavy gunfire inside Myanmar area,” said Sheikh Ehsan Uddin, administrative head of Teknaf.

“Security has been beefed up in the border area, and the number of patrol forces with the Border Guard Bangladesh and Coast Guard has been increased.”

The movement of all boats between Teknaf and Saint Martin island off the Bangladeshi coast has been suspended from Thursday. And restrictions have been imposed on those traveling along the Naf River, which marks the border of southeastern Bangladesh and northwestern Myanmar.

“Villagers and locals are allowed to cross the Naf River only during high tide, as our boats need to get closer to the Myanmar border during low tide,” Uddin said.

“Our Coast Guard will look after the issue so that Bangladeshi boats don’t enter into Myanmar territory by any chance.”


UK announces new funding for UNRWA

UK announces new funding for UNRWA
Updated 57 min 8 sec ago
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UK announces new funding for UNRWA

UK announces new funding for UNRWA
  • Britain’s annual £21m will be topped up by £13m
  • Decision follows meeting between PM Keir Starmer, aid agency chief Philippe Lazzarini

LONDON: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged an additional £13 million ($16.56 million) to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

The announcement followed a meeting between him and UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini in London on Wednesday.

Starmer gave his condolences to the agency for the deaths of staff members killed in Gaza. The pair agreed that more needs to be done to protect aid workers in the Palestinian enclave, and reiterated their calls for an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages held by Hamas.

The money will come on top of the £21 million per year already given to UNRWA by the UK, which was temporarily suspended by the former government after Israel accused 12 agency members of taking part in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack in 2023.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy said he was “reassured” that UNRWA met UK government standards for vetting employees following an independent review of the situation.

UNRWA was established in 1949 to help Palestinian refugees. In October, Israel banned it from operating in its territory, hampering its ability to operate in the Occupied Territories.

Starmer condemned the decision, saying it had left him “gravely concerned” and would make it “impossible” for vital work to be done helping displaced and vulnerable Palestinian civilians.


Hong Kong court convicts 7 men, including former lawmaker, of rioting during 2019 protests

Hong Kong court convicts 7 men, including former lawmaker, of rioting during 2019 protests
Updated 12 December 2024
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Hong Kong court convicts 7 men, including former lawmaker, of rioting during 2019 protests

Hong Kong court convicts 7 men, including former lawmaker, of rioting during 2019 protests
  • Prosecutors accused former legislator Lam Cheuk-ting and the six other defendants of provoking members of a group of about 100 armed men
  • The men claimed to be protecting their homeland in Yuen Long, a residential district in Hong Kong’s New Territories

HONG KONG: A Hong Kong judge on Thursday convicted seven people, including a pro-democracy former lawmaker, of rioting during mob violence at a subway station at the height of the city’s anti-government protests in July 2019.
Prosecutors accused former legislator Lam Cheuk-ting and the six other defendants of provoking members of a group of about 100 men armed with wooden poles and metal rods who attacked protesters and bystanders at a train station. The men, all clad in white shirts, in contrast with the black worn by protesters, claimed to be protecting their homeland in Yuen Long, a residential district in Hong Kong’s New Territories.
Dozens of people, including Lam, were injured in the violence, a key chapter that escalated the protest movement as the public criticized police for their delayed response. The landmark ruling could shape the city’s historical narrative of the incident.
Judge Stanley Chan ruled that Lam was not acting as a mediator as he had claimed, but rather was trying to exploit the situation for political gain.
He said Lam’s words directed at the white-shirted men had “fanned the flames.”
The seven defendants are expected to be sentenced in February. Several members of the public sitting in the gallery cried after hearing the verdicts. Others waved at the defendants, with one shouting to Lam, “Hang in there, Ting!” Lam appeared to be at ease.
The prosecution alleged the defendants had either berated the white-shirted men, used obscene hand gestures, hurled objects or shot jets of water at them with a hosepipe.
The defendants had pleaded not guilty to the rioting charge.
During the trial, Lam said he chose to go to Yuen Long because he hoped his then position as a lawmaker could pressure the police to act quickly. He said he could not leave the scene while fellow residents were in danger. Some defendants who targeted the white-shirted men with a hosepipe argued that they were just trying to stop the attackers from advancing.
Chan, the judge, rejected the arguments of some defendants that they acted in self-defense.
The 2019 protests were sparked by a proposed extradition law that would have allowed criminal suspects in Hong Kong to be sent to the mainland for trial. The government withdrew the bill, but the protesters widened their demands to include direct elections for the city’s leaders and police accountability.
The social movement was the biggest challenge to the Hong Kong government since the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997. In response, Beijing imposed a national security law in 2020, leading to the arrest of many activists. Others were silenced or went into exile.
In November, Lam was sentenced to six years and nine months in jail in the city’s biggest national security case.
More than 10,000 people were arrested in connection to the protests for various crimes, such as rioting and participating in an unauthorized assembly. About 10 white-shirted men were convicted in other cases related to the mob violence in July 2019, local media reported.


Taliban minister killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan

Taliban minister killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan
Updated 12 December 2024
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Taliban minister killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan

Taliban minister killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan
  • Khalil Haqqani was killed by a suicide bomber inside his ministry’s compound
  • He is the most high-profile Taliban casualty since the group’s return to power

KABUL: The killing of Afghanistan Refugee Minister Khalil Haqqani has raised new concerns about a Daesh threat in the country, analysts said on Thursday, as the group claimed responsibility for the suicide blast that killed the Taliban official in Kabul.

Haqqani was a senior leader of a powerful faction within the Taliban called the Haqqani network. He became a minister when the Taliban returned to power after US-led forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021.

Haqqani was the brother of famous guerrilla leader and Haqqani network founder Jalaluddin Haqqani, who fought Soviet troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s. His nephew, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is the current interior minister.

Daesh-run media said on Wednesday evening that it was responsible for the explosion that killed the minister hours earlier at the Ministry of Refugees compound in central Kabul, carried out by a suicide bomber.

The Taliban later confirmed in a statement that Daesh was behind the attack, which killed and injured several others.

“(Haqqani) was a major figure whose politico-military career spanned decades and whose network and contracts transcended not just political divides across the Afghan spectrum but also extended deep into the tribal areas of Pakistan,” Ahmad Waleed Kakar, analyst and founder of The Afghan Eye media platform, told Arab News.

Coming from a tribe inhabiting the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Haqqani’s family has been influential in resolving tribal conflicts and addressing issues at the community level.

After the 2001 US invasion ousted the Taliban from their first stint in power, the faction was responsible for many attacks during the movement’s 20-year insurgency against foreign troops and influence in the country.

In 2011, the US classified Haqqani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, putting a $5 million bounty on his head.

“His killing will be a huge political blow to the Taliban given his history of pragmatic mediation in the movement,” Kakar said.

“Whilst Daesh have been unable to meaningfully consolidate their control over specific geography in Afghanistan or pose a military threat to the Taliban, their limited presence means they remain able to exploit faults in Taliban security and target key figures.”

A regional affiliate of Daesh, known as Islamic State Khorasan Province, has been a rival group to the Taliban since it emerged in Afghanistan a decade ago.

Following the Taliban takeover in August 2021, ISKP has continued its campaign against the new regime. While deadly blasts have become rare, last year ISKP claimed the explosion that killed the Taliban governor of northern Balkh province. A few months later, the group assassinated the acting governor of Badakhshan in Afghanistan’s northeast.

Haqqani is the most high-profile casualty of an attack in Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power.

“The killing of Khalil Rahman Haqqani is a deeply tragic incident, not only for the Taliban but also for Afghans and the international community. Mr. Haqqani was widely regarded as a pragmatic and moderate leader within the Taliban. Following the collapse of the republic, he was seen in Kabul, personally assuring former leaders of the republic about their safety,” Tameem Bahiss, a Kabul-based security analyst, told Arab News.

“While the Taliban have made significant strides in weakening ISKP’s presence in Afghanistan, this attack on Mr. Haqqani will undoubtedly heighten concerns among the Taliban leadership, leaving them more alarmed and cautious.”


Taliban minister’s killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan

Taliban minister’s killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan
Updated 12 December 2024
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Taliban minister’s killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan

Taliban minister’s killing renews concerns over Daesh threat in Afghanistan
  • Khalil Haqqani was killed by a suicide bomber inside his ministry’s compound
  • He is the most high-profile Taliban casualty since the group’s return to power

KABUL: The killing of Afghanistan’s Refugee Minister Khalil Haqqani, has raised new concerns about a Daesh threat in the country, analysts said on Thursday, as the group claimed responsibility for the suicide blast that killed the Taliban official in Kabul.
Khalil Haqqani was a senior leader of a powerful faction within the Taliban called the Haqqani network. He became a minister when the Taliban returned to power after US-led forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021.
Haqqani was the brother of the famous guerrilla leader and the Haqqani network’s founder Jalaluddin Haqqani, who fought Soviet troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s. His nephew, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is the current interior minister.
Daesh-run media said on Wednesday evening that the explosion that killed the minister hours earlier at the Ministry of Refugees compound in central Kabul was carried out by its suicide attacker.
The Taliban later confirmed in a statement that Daesh was behind the attack, which killed and injured several others.
“(Haqqani) was a major figure whose politico-military career spanned decades and whose network and contracts transcended not just political divides across the Afghan spectrum but also extended deep into the tribal areas of Pakistan,” Ahmad Waleed Kakar, analyst and founder of The Afghan Eye media platform, told Arab News.
Coming from a tribe inhabiting the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Haqqani’s family has been influential in resolving tribal conflicts and addressing issues at the community level.
After the 2001 US invasion ousted the Taliban from their first stint in power, the faction was responsible for many attacks during the movement’s 20-year insurgency against foreign troops and influence in the country.
In 2011, the US classified Haqqani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, offering a $5 million bounty on his head.
“His killing will be a huge political blow to the Taliban given his history of pragmatic mediation in the movement,” Kakar said.
“Whilst Daesh have been unable to meaningfully consolidate their control over specific geography in Afghanistan or pose a military threat to the Taliban, their limited presence means they remain able to exploit faults in Taliban security and target key figures.”
A regional affiliate of Daesh, known as Islamic State Khorasan Province, has been a rival group to the Taliban since it emerged in Afghanistan a decade ago.
Following the Taliban takeover of the country in 2021, ISKP has continued its campaign against the new Taliban regime. While deadly blasts have become rare since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, last year ISKP claimed the explosion that killed the Taliban governor of northern Balkh province. A few months later, the group assassinated the acting governor of Badakhshan in Afghanistan’s northeast.
Haqqani is the most high-profile casualty of an attack in Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power.
“The killing of Khalil Rahman Haqqani is a deeply tragic incident, not only for the Taliban but also for Afghans and the international community. Mr. Haqqani was widely regarded as a pragmatic and moderate leader within the Taliban. Following the collapse of the republic, he was seen in Kabul, personally assuring former leaders of the republic about their safety,” Tameem Bahiss, a Kabul-based security analyst, told Arab News.
“While the Taliban have made significant strides in weakening ISKP’s presence in Afghanistan, this attack on Mr. Haqqani will undoubtedly heighten concerns among the Taliban leadership, leaving them more alarmed and cautious.”