‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

Special ‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
1 / 2
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
Special ‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
2 / 2
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at an election night watch party on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 07 November 2024
Follow

‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
  • President-elect expected to prioritize ending wars in Gaza and Lebanon, pressure Iran, push for normalization deals
  • Arab leaders considered Trump a valuable partner and a robust ally against regional militia groups

LONDON: Defying almost all election predictions, Donald Trump, or “Abu Ivanka” as he is commonly known in the region, has secured what he has called a “powerful mandate” to form the next US administration, with massive implications not just for domestic politics but for the international community, including the Middle East.

Since his election victory was confirmed on Wednesday, messages of congratulations have flooded in from Arab capitals, buoyed by the opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation that a second Trump presidency likely has in store for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump in separate cables on Wednesday, with King Salman praising the “historically close (bilateral) relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”




On May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (R) joined  Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) led the inauguration of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology "Etidal" in Riyadh. (Saudi Royal Palace/AFP/File photo)

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent his “sincere congratulations” to Trump in a message on X, saying: “The UAE looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”

Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani posted on X that he looks “forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership.”

Egypt also welcomed the result, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi posting on social media: “We look forward to working together in bringing and maintaining regional peace and stability and bolstering the strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States.”

While almost all of the national polls had placed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in the race to succeed President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, there were clear signs that ethnic minority voters were beginning to turn their backs on the Democrats — among them Arab Americans.




Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a late night hookah bar election watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 6, 2024. Incoming president Donald Trump pulled off a surprising feat late in the 2024 campaign, winning over swathes of Muslim voters with a promise to end bloodshed in the Middle East. (Photo by Issam AHMED / AFP)

An Arab News-YouGov poll conducted in October showed that Biden’s stance on Israel and the war in Gaza had contributed to the alienation of Arab American voters, leading a slim majority of those surveyed to say they would be voting for the Republicans in several swing states.

Some 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would opt for Harris, despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents.

Although Trump was perceived as being more supportive of Israel than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. Those predictions appear to have played out, with Arab American voters in the swing state of Michigan, for instance, voting for Trump in huge numbers, helping tip the result against the Democrats.




Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Trump won 42.5 percent of Dearborn’s vote, compared to 36 percent for Kamala Harris, officials reported. Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 18 percent.

“The reason for this seismic paradigm shift in the Arab American and Muslim voting electorate is because they responded to President Trump’s message of peace,” Oubai Shahbandar, a former defense intelligence officer and Middle East analyst with the Pentagon, told Arab News.

“They responded to President Trump’s outreach to these communities, which was spearheaded by his foreign policy envoy Richard Grenell. It was a message of peace. It was a message of inclusion. They brought in Muslim American community leaders and imams like Belal Alzuhairi, like Amer Ghalib, like Bill Bazzi, and the strategy has paid off.

“It was also a rejection by the Arab American and Muslim American or Middle Eastern community of the past four years of failed Biden-Harris policies, both domestically and when it comes to the foreign policy — a foreign policy that was widely viewed by these communities as enabling the mass killings of Muslims and Arabs across the Middle East.

“And there was a desire for real change, a new way forward. And the numbers speak for themselves. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans wanted President Trump back in the White House.”

Born in 1946 in New York, Trump was a prominent businessman and media personality before going on to serve as president between 2017 and 2021. His political career began in 2015 when he ran for the Republican Party nomination promising immigration reform, trade renegotiation, and a tough stance against Iran.

He won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton with a focus on “America First” policies, which included tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting foreign policy. However, his presidency was marked by polarizing actions, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachment trials, and often divisive rhetoric on migration, abortion rights, and democracy.

When Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, his in-tray will be stacked high with pressing issues jostling for attention, from the cost-of-living crisis and border controls, which were clearly top priorities for US voters, to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon.

“Trump’s victory exceeded expectations and could prove historic,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News.




Firas Maksad. (AN file photo)

“If they also win the House, this might be the first time Republicans control all branches of government since World War One. It ushers in an era where America lurches decisively to the right.”

If Trump’s second term is anything like his first, tectonic shifts can be expected on foreign policy — shaped by a blend of “America first” isolationism and his aggressive deal-making style, designed to disengage the US from “the endless wars,” break costly stalemates, and promote American business interests over foreign rivals.

“The Trump foreign policy tent includes both foreign policy hawks and isolationists,” said Maksad. “We will need to watch closely to determine who will come to dominate in key foreign policy appointments. Figures like Grenell or Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton.”




Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks on stage during the Republican National Convention n Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024. (AFP/File)

While many people in the Arab world are wary of Trump’s close ties to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, others view him as an ally in the effort to rein in Iran-backed militia groups since the killing of the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

After Trump’s 2016 election victory, his first overseas visit as president was to Riyadh, where in May 2017 he held bilateral talks with the Saudi government and two multilateral meetings with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab and Muslim countries.

In an interview with Al Arabiya in October, Trump said the US-Saudi Arabia relationship “was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great” when he was in the White House and that the crown prince is “a great guy.”

“(I have) so much respect for the king and so much respect for Mohammed who is doing so great,” Trump said. “He’s a real visionary, he’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about.”




US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (AFP/File)

Trump’s previous administration strengthened the military and economic capacities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, notably through a boost in trade, support for their regional ambitions, and a hardline stance against Iran, including his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“Terrible news for Tehran,” Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program, said in a thread on X on Wednesday, responding to Trump’s election win.

“Expect a renewed maximum pressure campaign, sanctions against Tehran, and an increased likelihood of Israeli strikes within Iran against strategic sites, especially with Iran’s air defense now immensely weakened.”

A new Trump presidency is also likely to be bad news for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, as it will likely come under further regional pressure and a stronger military campaign by the US and Israel in the wake of its attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Hamas.




This handout photograph taken on March 6, 2024 and released by the Indian Navy shows the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier following a attack by Yemen's Houthi militia, in the Gulf of Aden.  (AFP/file)

The picture is unclear on Gaza, however, where Israel has been at war with Palestinian militant groups since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Likewise in Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, the implications of a Trump win are uncertain.

While Trump is known as a staunch supporter of Israel, having recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv during his last presidency, he also showed a determination to find a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The previous Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, which established diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Arab states including the UAE and Bahrain by decoupling normalization from recognition of Palestinian statehood.

His return to the White House could see the revival of the Abraham Accords and the drive toward Arab-Israeli normalization, which many had written off in the wake of the Gaza war. He has also pledged to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon on day one of his presidency but has not outlined what a solution might look like for the Palestinian people.




In this photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020, then US President Donald Trump celebrates with 
Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (2L), and UAE's FM  Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

“Trump will try to bring the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to a close, pressure Iran, and push forward on normalization,” said Maksad.

“However, his ability to deliver might be limited by the agency of local actors and the complexity of Israeli politics. There is also uncertainty about whether a Republican president can get enough Democrats in the Senate to approve a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a crucial part of any pathway towards normalization.”

Although Trump’s victory is likely to be viewed in Europe and perhaps China as ushering in a period of unpredictability, Middle Eastern leaders are likely to welcome a return to a more transactional relationship with Washington — one that is shaped by mutual trade and security interests without perceived interference in their domestic affairs.

“Trump’s victory will support His Highness the Crown Prince’s vision in the region for the benefit of all,” Saudi commentator Mohammed Al-Mubarak posted on X. “Even global companies, especially American ones, will have an active role in this renaissance.”
 

 


Pakistan national airline to resume flights to Europe after ban lifted

Pakistan national airline to resume flights to Europe after ban lifted
Updated 58 min ago
Follow

Pakistan national airline to resume flights to Europe after ban lifted

Pakistan national airline to resume flights to Europe after ban lifted
  • The airline remains banned from operating in the United States

Islamabad: Pakistan’s beleaguered national airline will resume flights to Europe on January 10 after European Union authorities lifted a four-year ban on the carrier, the company said in a statement on Saturday.
The statement from Pakistan International Airline (PIA), which was at the center of a pilot license scandal, said a “PIA flight will depart from Islamabad to Paris on January 10.”
“Initially, two flights will be operated weekly (on Friday and Sunday), which will gradually be increased.”
PIA was barred from flying to the EU in June 2020, a month after one of its aircraft plunged into a street in the southern city of Karachi, killing nearly 100 people.
The disaster was attributed to human error by the pilots and air traffic control, and was followed by allegations that nearly a third of the licenses for its pilots were fake or dubious.
The airline remains banned from operating in the United States.
After Europe’s ban was lifted last week, a spokesman for the carrier said they would “strictly adhere to EASA’s regulations and guidelines,” referring to the European Union’s aviation authority.
PIA, which employs 7,000 people, has long been accused of being bloated and poorly run — hobbled by unpaid bills, a poor safety record and regulatory issues.
Pakistan’s government has said it is committed to privatising the debt-ridden airline and has been scrambling to find a buyer.
Last month, a deal fell through after a potential buyer reportedly offered a fraction of the asking price.
The sale was also part of IMF demands in exchange for aid programs, including the privatization of public companies, establishing a broader tax base and ending subsidies for the 40 percent of Pakistanis who live below the poverty line.
In 2023, PIA had losses of $270 million according to local media.
Its liabilities were nearly $3 billion, about five times the total worth of its assets.
Last year, dozens of flights were canceled when it could not afford fuel for its planes.
While speaking to reporters last week, Pakistan’s aviation minister Khawaja Asif called the restoration of flights to Europe a “major value addition” that will make the airline more attractive to potential buyers.
PIA came into being in 1955 when the government nationalized a loss-making commercial airline and it enjoyed rapid growth until the 1990s.


India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
Updated 07 December 2024
Follow

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
  • Relations soured when ex-PM Sheikh Hasina, toppled after uprising this year, fled to India
  • Bangladesh’s current government leader has accused India of destabilizing his administration

NEW DELHI: India’s top diplomat will head to Bangladesh Monday after the student-led revolution in August that toppled autocratic ex-premier Sheikh Hasina’s government in Dhaka soured ties between the two neighbors.
Hasina’s iron-fisted rule was strongly backed by India and the 77-year-old remains in New Delhi where she took refuge after her ouster, despite Bangladesh announcing it would seek her extradition.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is leading an interim government tasked with implementing democratic reforms, has condemned acts of “Indian aggression” that he alleged were intended to destabilize his administration.
Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal confirmed late Friday that his department’s secretary Vikram Misri would visit Bangladesh on Monday.
Misri “will meet his counterpart and there will be several other meetings during the visit,” Jaiswal told journalists in New Delhi.
Yunus, 84, faced numerous criminal proceedings during Hasina’s regime that her critics say were concocted to sideline one of her potential rivals.
He has been a vocal critic of India for backing Hasina’s rule to the hilt despite the mounting rights abuses seen over her 15-year tenure.
India for its part has accused Muslim-majority Bangladesh of failing to adequately protect its minority Hindu community from reprisals.
The arrest of a prominent Hindu priest in Bangladesh on sedition charges last month further added to tensions, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing supporters urging his government to take a more hard-line stance on Dhaka.
“We want to reiterate our position again that they have legal rights and we hope that these legal rights will be respected and that the trial will be fair,” Jaiswal said of the case.
Yunus’s administration has acknowledged and condemned attacks on Hindus, including during the chaotic hours after Hasina’s ouster, but said that in many cases they were motivated by politics rather than religion.
He has accused India of exaggerating the scale of the violence and running a “propaganda campaign.”
“They are undermining our efforts to build a new Bangladesh and are spreading fictitious stories,” Yunus said this week.
Numerous street demonstrations have been staged against India in Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster.
Several rallies were held this week to protest an attempt by Hindu activists to storm a Bangladeshi consulate in an Indian city not far from the neighbors’ shared border.
India condemned the breach afterwards and arrested seven people over the incident.
Despite cratering diplomatic ties the two neighbors are key economic partners with with annual bilateral trade worth about $14 billion.


Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities

Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities
Updated 07 December 2024
Follow

Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities

Apartment block in The Hague ‘partially collapsed’ after explosion: authorities
  • It was not known how many people could be missing nor what caused the explosion in the block of flats not far from the center of the city

The Hague: A three-story apartment block in The Hague partially collapsed Saturday after a fire and explosion, firefighters said, with first responders searching for people under the rubble.
“At this moment, the emergency services are busy rescuing and searching for people and fighting the fire,” said the city’s fire service in a statement.
It was not known how many people could be missing nor what caused the explosion in the block of flats not far from the center of the city.
According to local media outlet Regio15, several people had already been rescued from the scene.
Four people injured in the explosion had been taken to local hospitals, according to the fire service.
“The fire is releasing a lot of smoke in the immediate vicinity... Residents are advised to close windows and doors and turn off ventilation,” authorities said.
The city’s mayor Jan van Zanen was on site to coordinate rescue efforts, according to Regio15.
Homes on multiple floors appeared to have been destroyed by the explosion, said Regio15.
Early images from public broadcaster NOS showed several dozen firefighters tackling a large blaze and breaking down doors to gain access to the block.
A picture from local news agency ANP showed one person being led away on a stretcher into a waiting ambulance.


India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
Updated 07 December 2024
Follow

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester

India’s top diplomat to visit Bangladesh as tensions fester
  • Sheikh Hasina’s iron-fisted rule was strongly backed by India
  • She remains in New Delhi where she took refuge after her ouster

NEW DELHI: India’s top diplomat will head to Bangladesh Monday after the student-led revolution in August that toppled autocratic ex-premier Sheikh Hasina’s government in Dhaka soured ties between the two neighbors.
Hasina’s iron-fisted rule was strongly backed by India and the 77-year-old remains in New Delhi where she took refuge after her ouster, despite Bangladesh announcing it would seek her extradition.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is leading an interim government tasked with implementing democratic reforms, has condemned acts of “Indian aggression” that he alleged were intended to destabilize his administration.
Indian foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal confirmed late Friday that his department’s secretary Vikram Misri would visit Bangladesh on Monday.
Misri “will meet his counterpart and there will be several other meetings during the visit,” Jaiswal told journalists in New Delhi.
Yunus, 84, faced numerous criminal proceedings during Hasina’s regime that her critics say were concocted to sideline one of her potential rivals.
He has been a vocal critic of India for backing Hasina’s rule to the hilt despite the mounting rights abuses seen over her 15-year tenure.
India for its part has accused Muslim-majority Bangladesh of failing to adequately protect its minority Hindu community from reprisals.
The arrest of a prominent Hindu priest in Bangladesh on sedition charges last month further added to tensions, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-wing supporters urging his government to take a more hardline stance on Dhaka.
“We want to reiterate our position again that they have legal rights and we hope that these legal rights will be respected and that the trial will be fair,” Jaiswal said of the case.
Yunus’s administration has acknowledged and condemned attacks on Hindus, including during the chaotic hours after Hasina’s ouster, but said that in many cases they were motivated by politics rather than religion.
He has accused India of exaggerating the scale of the violence and running a “propaganda campaign.”
“They are undermining our efforts to build a new Bangladesh and are spreading fictitious stories,” Yunus said this week.
Numerous street demonstrations have been staged against India in Bangladesh since Hasina’s ouster.
Several rallies were held this week to protest an attempt by Hindu activists to storm a Bangladeshi consulate in an Indian city not far from the neighbors’ shared border.
India condemned the breach afterwards and arrested seven people over the incident.
Despite cratering diplomatic ties the two neighbors are key economic partners with an annual bilateral trade worth about $14 billion.


Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris

Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris
Updated 07 December 2024
Follow

Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris

Trump returns to world stage at Notre-Dame reopening in Paris
  • Macron aims to mediate between Trump and Europe
  • Trump’s visit seen as symbolic return to global stage

WASHINGTON/PARIS: US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the world stage on Saturday to join leaders for the reopening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, still a private citizen but already preparing to tackle a host of international crises.
It will be Trump’s first trip overseas since he won the presidential election a month ago and it could offer French President Emmanuel Macron an opportunity to play the role of mediator between Europe and the unpredictable US politician, a role the French leader has relished in the past.
The two are expected to meet on the sidelines of Saturday’s visit. While no agenda for their talks has been announced, European leaders are concerned that Trump could withdraw US military aid to Ukraine at a crucial juncture in its war to repel Russian invaders.
Macron is a strong supporter of the NATO alliance and Ukraine’s fight, while Trump feels European nations need to pay more for their common defense and that a negotiated settlement is needed to end the Ukraine war.
“Mr. Macron is repeating his personalized approach which had some limited success during Mr. Trump’s first term. Macron knows Mr. Trump greatly appreciates the pomp, circumstance and grandeur of state and he provides it to him in abundance,” said Heather Conley, senior adviser to the board of the German Marshall Fund, which promotes US-European ties.
Trump will join dozens of world leaders and foreign dignitaries for the ceremony reopening Notre-Dame Cathedral 5-1/2 years after it was ravaged by fire.
It was unclear whether Trump would meet other leaders besides Macron. The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for details.
While Trump is due to be sworn in as US president only on Jan. 20, he has already held discussions with a number of world leaders, and members of his team are trying to get up to speed on a burgeoning number of world crises, including Ukraine and the Middle East.
Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, met on Wednesday in Washington with Ukraine envoy Andriy Yermak, leading to speculation that a meeting between Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky might be in the offing in Paris.
Trump, a Republican, was in power when Notre-Dame burned in 2019. He lost his 2020 reelection bid to Democrat Joe Biden but on Nov. 5 defeated Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, to win back the presidency.
“Symbolically, both Mr. Trump’s presidency and Notre-Dame have been restored in approximately the same time period. His visit to Paris is also the opening salvo of his return to the world stage, further diminishing the final days of the Biden administration,” Conley said.
Biden’s wife, first lady Jill Biden, will represent the United States at the Notre-Dame reopening.

GLOBAL SPECTACLE
Trump will get plenty of worldwide buzz standing alongside other world leaders. He visited France four times while president from 2017-2021, including D-Day anniversary ceremonies in 2019.
“Trump will be seen throughout the world in potentially a statesman-like position,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye.
“It’s not images of him at Mar-a-Lago,” Heye said, referring to the Florida home where Trump has spent the bulk of his time since the election. “This is the biggest event of the world and he’ll be peer-to-peer with other leaders.”
Observers will be watching how Trump and Macron interact. The two men have endured ups and downs in their relationship over the years.
Macron invited Trump to the Bastille Day military parade in Paris in July 2017, a spectacle that inspired Trump to order up his own military parade in Washington to mark America’s Independence Day in 2019.
Trump hosted Macron at a White House state dinner in 2018 but a year later the two quarreled over comments Macron made about the state of NATO.
“Trump coming to Paris is a ‘good coup’ by Emmanuel Macron,” said Gerard Araud, France’s former ambassador to Washington. “It is indispensable to have a direct relationship with the only man who counts in the Trump administration, Trump himself.”
Macron, who has just over two years left as president, pursued a non-confrontational approach toward Trump during the latter’s first term, hoping that by engaging with him he could win concessions.
But as the years passed, policy decisions on climate, taxation and Iran in particular caused friction between the two leaders. By the end it was a more fractious relationship.
Clashes most likely lie ahead, fueled by Trump’s desire to impose sweeping tariffs on Europe and other US trade partners, and disagreement over how to handle the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
(Reporting by Steve Holland; additional reporting by John Irish in Paris; editing by Ross Colvin and Howard Goller)