‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

Special ‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
1 / 2
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump waves as he walks with former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
Special ‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
2 / 2
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at an election night watch party on Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 07 November 2024
Follow

‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
  • President-elect expected to prioritize ending wars in Gaza and Lebanon, pressure Iran, push for normalization deals
  • Arab leaders considered Trump a valuable partner and a robust ally against regional militia groups

LONDON: Defying almost all election predictions, Donald Trump, or “Abu Ivanka” as he is commonly known in the region, has secured what he has called a “powerful mandate” to form the next US administration, with massive implications not just for domestic politics but for the international community, including the Middle East.

Since his election victory was confirmed on Wednesday, messages of congratulations have flooded in from Arab capitals, buoyed by the opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation that a second Trump presidency likely has in store for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump in separate cables on Wednesday, with King Salman praising the “historically close (bilateral) relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”




On May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (R) joined  Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) led the inauguration of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology "Etidal" in Riyadh. (Saudi Royal Palace/AFP/File photo)

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent his “sincere congratulations” to Trump in a message on X, saying: “The UAE looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”

Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani posted on X that he looks “forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership.”

Egypt also welcomed the result, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi posting on social media: “We look forward to working together in bringing and maintaining regional peace and stability and bolstering the strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States.”

While almost all of the national polls had placed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in the race to succeed President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, there were clear signs that ethnic minority voters were beginning to turn their backs on the Democrats — among them Arab Americans.




Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a late night hookah bar election watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 6, 2024. Incoming president Donald Trump pulled off a surprising feat late in the 2024 campaign, winning over swathes of Muslim voters with a promise to end bloodshed in the Middle East. (Photo by Issam AHMED / AFP)

An Arab News-YouGov poll conducted in October showed that Biden’s stance on Israel and the war in Gaza had contributed to the alienation of Arab American voters, leading a slim majority of those surveyed to say they would be voting for the Republicans in several swing states.

Some 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would opt for Harris, despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents.

Although Trump was perceived as being more supportive of Israel than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. Those predictions appear to have played out, with Arab American voters in the swing state of Michigan, for instance, voting for Trump in huge numbers, helping tip the result against the Democrats.




Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Trump won 42.5 percent of Dearborn’s vote, compared to 36 percent for Kamala Harris, officials reported. Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 18 percent.

“The reason for this seismic paradigm shift in the Arab American and Muslim voting electorate is because they responded to President Trump’s message of peace,” Oubai Shahbandar, a former defense intelligence officer and Middle East analyst with the Pentagon, told Arab News.

“They responded to President Trump’s outreach to these communities, which was spearheaded by his foreign policy envoy Richard Grenell. It was a message of peace. It was a message of inclusion. They brought in Muslim American community leaders and imams like Belal Alzuhairi, like Amer Ghalib, like Bill Bazzi, and the strategy has paid off.

“It was also a rejection by the Arab American and Muslim American or Middle Eastern community of the past four years of failed Biden-Harris policies, both domestically and when it comes to the foreign policy — a foreign policy that was widely viewed by these communities as enabling the mass killings of Muslims and Arabs across the Middle East.

“And there was a desire for real change, a new way forward. And the numbers speak for themselves. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans wanted President Trump back in the White House.”

Born in 1946 in New York, Trump was a prominent businessman and media personality before going on to serve as president between 2017 and 2021. His political career began in 2015 when he ran for the Republican Party nomination promising immigration reform, trade renegotiation, and a tough stance against Iran.

He won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton with a focus on “America First” policies, which included tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting foreign policy. However, his presidency was marked by polarizing actions, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachment trials, and often divisive rhetoric on migration, abortion rights, and democracy.

When Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, his in-tray will be stacked high with pressing issues jostling for attention, from the cost-of-living crisis and border controls, which were clearly top priorities for US voters, to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon.

“Trump’s victory exceeded expectations and could prove historic,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News.




Firas Maksad. (AN file photo)

“If they also win the House, this might be the first time Republicans control all branches of government since World War One. It ushers in an era where America lurches decisively to the right.”

If Trump’s second term is anything like his first, tectonic shifts can be expected on foreign policy — shaped by a blend of “America first” isolationism and his aggressive deal-making style, designed to disengage the US from “the endless wars,” break costly stalemates, and promote American business interests over foreign rivals.

“The Trump foreign policy tent includes both foreign policy hawks and isolationists,” said Maksad. “We will need to watch closely to determine who will come to dominate in key foreign policy appointments. Figures like Grenell or Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton.”




Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks on stage during the Republican National Convention n Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024. (AFP/File)

While many people in the Arab world are wary of Trump’s close ties to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, others view him as an ally in the effort to rein in Iran-backed militia groups since the killing of the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

After Trump’s 2016 election victory, his first overseas visit as president was to Riyadh, where in May 2017 he held bilateral talks with the Saudi government and two multilateral meetings with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab and Muslim countries.

In an interview with Al Arabiya in October, Trump said the US-Saudi Arabia relationship “was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great” when he was in the White House and that the crown prince is “a great guy.”

“(I have) so much respect for the king and so much respect for Mohammed who is doing so great,” Trump said. “He’s a real visionary, he’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about.”




US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (AFP/File)

Trump’s previous administration strengthened the military and economic capacities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, notably through a boost in trade, support for their regional ambitions, and a hardline stance against Iran, including his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“Terrible news for Tehran,” Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program, said in a thread on X on Wednesday, responding to Trump’s election win.

“Expect a renewed maximum pressure campaign, sanctions against Tehran, and an increased likelihood of Israeli strikes within Iran against strategic sites, especially with Iran’s air defense now immensely weakened.”

A new Trump presidency is also likely to be bad news for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, as it will likely come under further regional pressure and a stronger military campaign by the US and Israel in the wake of its attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Hamas.




This handout photograph taken on March 6, 2024 and released by the Indian Navy shows the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier following a attack by Yemen's Houthi militia, in the Gulf of Aden.  (AFP/file)

The picture is unclear on Gaza, however, where Israel has been at war with Palestinian militant groups since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Likewise in Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, the implications of a Trump win are uncertain.

While Trump is known as a staunch supporter of Israel, having recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv during his last presidency, he also showed a determination to find a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The previous Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, which established diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Arab states including the UAE and Bahrain by decoupling normalization from recognition of Palestinian statehood.

His return to the White House could see the revival of the Abraham Accords and the drive toward Arab-Israeli normalization, which many had written off in the wake of the Gaza war. He has also pledged to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon on day one of his presidency but has not outlined what a solution might look like for the Palestinian people.




In this photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020, then US President Donald Trump celebrates with 
Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (2L), and UAE's FM  Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

“Trump will try to bring the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to a close, pressure Iran, and push forward on normalization,” said Maksad.

“However, his ability to deliver might be limited by the agency of local actors and the complexity of Israeli politics. There is also uncertainty about whether a Republican president can get enough Democrats in the Senate to approve a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a crucial part of any pathway towards normalization.”

Although Trump’s victory is likely to be viewed in Europe and perhaps China as ushering in a period of unpredictability, Middle Eastern leaders are likely to welcome a return to a more transactional relationship with Washington — one that is shaped by mutual trade and security interests without perceived interference in their domestic affairs.

“Trump’s victory will support His Highness the Crown Prince’s vision in the region for the benefit of all,” Saudi commentator Mohammed Al-Mubarak posted on X. “Even global companies, especially American ones, will have an active role in this renaissance.”
 

 


Trump cabinet pick criticizes New York’s deal to rent Pakistan’s Roosevelt Hotel for $220 million

Trump cabinet pick criticizes New York’s deal to rent Pakistan’s Roosevelt Hotel for $220 million
Updated 17 sec ago
Follow

Trump cabinet pick criticizes New York’s deal to rent Pakistan’s Roosevelt Hotel for $220 million

Trump cabinet pick criticizes New York’s deal to rent Pakistan’s Roosevelt Hotel for $220 million
  • Vivek Ramaswamy has been picked by Trump to co-lead ‘Department of Government Efficiency’
  • New York’s iconic Roosevelt Hotel was repurposed into an arrival center for migrants last year

ISLAMABAD: Vivek Ramaswamy, US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice to co-lead a new government department, on Sunday criticized a deal by the New York City government to rent the Pakistan-owned Roosevelt Hotel for a whopping $220 million for what he said were “illegal migrants.”
Cash-strapped Pakistan rented out its iconic Roosevelt Hotel to the New York City government for three years, as per an agreement reached last year. 
Pakistan’s then aviation minister Khawaja Saad Rafique said that the New York administration would pay a rent of as much as $210 for each of the 1,025 rooms of the century-old hotel owned by the state-run Pakistan International Airlines (PIA). 
The New York City administration has repurposed the Roosevelt Hotel as an arrival center for migrants where they can get access to vaccines, food and other resources. 
“A taxpayer-funded hotel for illegal migrants is owned by the Pakistani government which means NYC taxpayers are effectively paying a foreign government to house illegals in our own country,” Ramaswamy wrote on social media platform X, responding to a post by American author John Lefevre. 
“This is nuts.”
Roosevelt Hotel was closed by Pakistani authorities in October 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic, as the country’s economy weakened and the aviation sector faced significant losses.
However, the facility accumulated liabilities of around $25 million in taxes and other overheads.
Ramaswamy, a former Republican presidential candidate, will co-lead a newly created Department of Government Efficiency with billionaire Elon Musk. Trump has indicated the department will operate outside the confines of government.


Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats

Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats
Updated 17 min 32 sec ago
Follow

Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats

Thailand protests Myanmar’s navy firing at Thai fishing boats
  • Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra questioned claims that the fishing boats had intruded into Myanmar’s territorial waters
  • Thailand seeking more details on the incident and a quick release of four Thai nationals who were among the 31 fishermen detained

BANGKOK: Thailand protested an incident involving Myanmar’s navy firing on Thai fishing vessels, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Sunday, after one fisherman drowned, two were injured and dozens were detained from one of the boats.
Shinawatra questioned claims that the fishing boats had intruded into Myanmar’s territorial waters when Myanmar’s navy opened fire on the vessels on Saturday.
The Thai defense ministry earlier said two of 15 Thai fishing vessels were fired on when they were 4-5.7 nautical miles (7.4-10.6 km) inside Myanmar’s territorial waters near the southern Thai province of Ranong.
“It is inconclusive,” Shinawatra said, when asked by reporters whether Thai fishing boats encroached on Myanmar’s territorial waters.
“We don’t support violence whatever the circumstances,” she said, adding that Thailand was seeking more details on the incident and a quick release of four Thai nationals who were among the 31 fishermen detained.
Myanmar’s ruling junta did not immediately respond to a telephone request for comment.
Thai Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said a letter protesting the use of force was sent to Myanmar through a local border mechanism, demanding clear details about what happened and a quick return of the Thai boat and crew detained.
Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa also issued a letter of concern over the incident to the Myanmar government and summoned the Myanmar ambassador for a meeting on Monday, seeking clarification about what happened and a quick release of the four Thai nationals.
Myanmar has been in crisis since 2021 when the military seized power, toppling an elected government and sparking an armed rebellion by crushing protests with lethal force.


Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban

Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban
Updated 27 min 35 sec ago
Follow

Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban

Pakistan national airline hopes to resume Europe flights soon after regulator lifts ban
  • The European Union Aviation Safety Agency suspended PIA’s authorization to operate in the EU in June 2020
  • Once PIA gets approval for UK flights, London, Manchester, and Birmingham would be the most sought-after destinations

KARACHI: Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) said on Sunday it expects to resume European routes soon and is eyeing several UK destinations after the EU aviation regulator lifted its bar on the flag carrier.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) suspended PIA’s authorization to operate in the EU in June 2020 over concerns about the ability of Pakistani authorities and its Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) to ensure compliance with international aviation standards.
“PIA plans to approach the UK’s Department for Transport (DfT) for UK route resumption, as EASA clearance is a prerequisite for their decision,” PIA spokesman Abdullah Hafeez Khan told Reuters.
EASA and UK authorities suspended permission for PIA to operate in the region after Pakistan began investigating the validity of pilots’ licenses following a deadly plane crash that killed 97 people.
Khan said the airline expects to resume flights to Europe, starting with Paris, within the next three to four weeks.
Once PIA gets approval for UK flights, Khan said London, Manchester, and Birmingham would be the most sought-after destinations.
PIA and the government, which is aiming to sell a 60 percent stake in the carrier, had urged EASA to lift the ban, even provisionally. The ban cost the airline 40 billion rupees ($144 million) annually in revenue.
Khan said the company has sufficient cash flow to add new routes. Decisions on leasing new aircraft will be made after the government finalizes privatization discussions, he said.
The loss-making national carrier has a 23 percent stake in Pakistan’s domestic aviation market, but its 34-plane fleet can’t compete with Middle Eastern carriers which hold a 60 percent market share, due to a lack of direct flights, despite having agreements with 87 countries and key landing slots.
The government’s attempt to privatize the airline fell flat when it received only a single offer, well below its asking price.
“With Europe now, and upcoming UK routes, we anticipate increased revenue potential and hence a rise in PIA’s value during the privatization process,” Khan said.


New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate

New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate
Updated 01 December 2024
Follow

New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate

New EU chiefs visit Kyiv on first day of mandate
  • The European Union’s new leadership team is keen to demonstrate it remains firm on backing Kyiv at a perilous moment for Ukraine
  • Questions are swirling around the future of US support once Donald Trump assumes office in January

Kyiv: The EU’s new top diplomat Kaja Kallas and head of the European Council Antonio Costa arrived in Kyiv Sunday in a symbolic show of support for Ukraine on their first day in office.
“We came to give a clear message that we stand with Ukraine, and we continue to give our full support,” Costa told media outlets including AFP accompanying them on the trip.
The European Union’s new leadership team is keen to demonstrate it remains firm on backing Kyiv at a perilous moment for Ukraine nearly three years into its fight against Russia’s all-out invasion.
Questions are swirling around the future of US support once Donald Trump assumes office in January and there are fears he could force Kyiv to make painful concessions in pursuit of a quick peace deal.
Meanwhile, tensions have escalated as Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to strike government buildings in Kyiv with his new Oreshnik missile after firing it at Ukraine for the first time last month.
The Kremlin leader said the move is a response to Kyiv getting the green light to strike inside Russia with American and British missiles, and he has threatened to hit back against the countries supplying the weaponry.
As winter begins Russia has also unleashed devastating barrages against Ukraine’s power grid and on the frontline Kyiv’s fatigued forces are losing ground to Moscow’s grinding offensive.
“The situation in Ukraine is very, very grave,” Kallas, a former prime minister of Estonia, said. “But it’s clear that it comes at a very high cost for Russia as well.”
Ceasefire?
The new EU leaders — the bloc’s top officials along with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen — were set to hold talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky on Friday appeared to begin staking out his position ahead of any potential peace talks.
He called on NATO to offer guaranteed protections to parts of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv in order to “stop the hot stage of the war,” and implied he would then be willing to wait to regain other territory seized by Russia.
“If we speak ceasefire, (we need) guarantees that Putin will not come back,” Zelensky told Britain’s Sky News.
Kallas said that “the strongest security guarantee is NATO membership.”
“We need to definitely discuss this — if Ukraine decides to draw the line somewhere then how can we secure peace so that Putin doesn’t go any further,” she said.
Diplomats at NATO say there appears little prospect of the alliance granting Ukraine membership soon given opposition from a raft of members cautious of getting dragged into war with Russia.
Kallas said the EU “shouldn’t really rule out anything” in terms of the question of sending European troops to help enforce any ceasefire.
“We should have this strategic ambiguity around this,” she said.
’Transactional language’
Trump has cast doubt on continuing Washington’s vast aid for Ukraine and called on EU countries to do more.
Europe together has spent around $125 billion on supporting Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion, while the United States alone has coughed up over $90 billion, according to a tracker from the Kiel Institute.
Kallas said the EU would use a “transactional language” to try to convince Trump that backing Kyiv was in the interest of the US.
“Aid for Ukraine is not charity,” she said. “A victory for Russia definitely emboldens China, Iran, North Korea.”
The new EU foreign policy chief said the bloc would continue seeking to put Ukraine in the “strongest” position — if and when Kyiv chose it was time to negotiate with Moscow.
But she conceded that it was becoming “increasingly difficult” for the 27-nation bloc to agree on new ways to ramp up support for Ukraine.
“This war has been going on for quite some time and it is harder and harder to explain it to our own people,” she said. “But I don’t see any option.”


Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike

Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike
Updated 01 December 2024
Follow

Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike

Russian drones target Kyiv in overnight strike
  • Russia has regularly sent missiles and drones at Ukrainian settlements far beyond the front line

KYIV: Russia launched attack drones at Kyiv in its latest overnight air strike on the Ukrainian capital, city officials said on Sunday.
Air defenses destroyed around a dozen drones over the city, according to military administrator Serhiy Popko. No injuries were reported after debris fell on one city district, he said.
Reuters correspondents heard explosions above the city later in the morning during the second air-raid alert of the day.
Russia has regularly sent missiles and drones at Ukrainian settlements far beyond the front line of its nearly three-year-old invasion, targeting the energy grid in particular as winter sets in.