WASHINGTON, 14 November 2004 — President George W. Bush has all but abandoned his goal of Palestinian statehood next year, opting instead to spend the next four years trying to help “a truly free state develop” alongside Israel.
Politely stepping around European and Arab demands that he plunge right into Middle East peacemaking now that Yasser Arafat has departed from the scene, Bush made clear he is in no hurry. After all, Secretary of State Colin Powell told the Arab television network Al-Arabiya, “it would be a little hard for him to say ‘And there will be one in one year, two years, three years, four years,’ because it is truly up to the parties.”
After meeting at the White House on Friday with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, his ally in Iraq, Bush offered no timetable — nor even a sketchy plan — for hastening Palestinian statehood, saying, “I hate to put artificial time frames on things.”
“I think it is impossible to think that the president of the United States or the prime minister of Great Britain can impose our vision,” Bush said.
Time is on Bush’s side here. For one thing, peacemaking was already at a virtual standstill while Arafat was alive. For another, Palestinians need to hold elections to choose permanent leaders within 60 days, so their emergence would be gradual. Also, Israel is not in a rush either. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will plot his way according to whether Mahmoud Abbas, the new head of the Palestine Liberation Organization, and other interim Palestinian leaders can impose order. “There is a two-state solution based on the fact that they have to first stop terrorism before there is a state,” Sharon’s spokesman, Raanan Gissin, said in reaction to Bush’s remarks. “The fact is that there is a new era now. He (Bush) is urging them to drop the Yasser Arafat legacy.”
Even the goal of holding a conference with European and other leaders to develop a strategy will not be achieved immediately, analysts say. “In the first four years, President Bush put the entire onus on the Palestinians and was unwilling to do much to help them. It is unclear whether that has changed,” said Brookings Institution analyst Martin Indyk, a former US ambassador to Israel and a former assistant secretary of state. “On the one hand, recognizing there is an opportunity, saying he is prepared to exert his capital, which is very important,” Indyk said. “On the other hand, he still made clear that the onus was going to be on the Palestinians to build democracy.”
Judith Kipper, director of the Middle East Forum at the Council on Foreign Relations, said if the Palestinians have an elected president by the middle of January and can maintain a cease-fire and appoint a new and more functional government, they could demand negotiations with Israel and have the support of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia.
James Phillips, Middle East analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said it would take months, if not years, for the Palestinians “to get their own house in order and crawl out of the hole Arafat dug for them.”
“They need to make a clean break from his disastrous legacy of terrorism, and until they do, there is little chance of genuine peace,” Phillips said in an interview.
Powell expects to meet with new Palestinian leaders soon, with discussions ongoing about time and place, a senior State Department official said Friday. One option is to tack a trip to the Middle East onto one of two extensive trips that Powell already has planned, the official said on condition on anonymity. Not ruled out is having the Palestinian leaders come to Washington, though that’s not considered likely, the official said. Sharon is sending his foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, to Washington to meet with Powell on Monday to compare notes.
Edward S. Walker, former US ambassador to Egypt and Israel, said he does not think Bush is ready to move on Palestinian statehood. “He just found another reason for not moving,” said Walker, president of the Middle East Institute. “He twisted and turned when asked whether he could do it in four years, and he didn’t give any concrete evidence he is ready to do anything positive.”
