Saudi bank credit races to $834bn in April as companies out-borrow households

Saudi bank credit races to $834bn in April as companies out-borrow households
Large national projects are driving most of the new business borrowing. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 09 June 2025
Follow

Saudi bank credit races to $834bn in April as companies out-borrow households

Saudi bank credit races to $834bn in April as companies out-borrow households
  • Jump adds roughly SR443 billion in new credit over 12 months
  • Real estate developers remain the largest borrowers, accounting for 21.77% of outstanding corporate credit

RIYADH: Saudi banks’ outstanding loan portfolio climbed to SR3.13 trillion ($833.7 billion) at the end of April, up 16.51 percent from a year earlier and marking the fastest annual expansion since mid-2021.

According to figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, the double-digit jump adds roughly SR443 billion in new credit over 12 months and underscores how the Kingdom’s project-driven growth model is reshaping balance-sheet priorities across the banking system.

Behind the headline figure is a striking pivot toward business customers. Corporate borrowing jumped 22 percent year on year to SR1.72 trillion, lifting its share of total credit above 55 percent, while loans to individuals rose a more measured 10.4 percent to about SR1.4 trillion.

Real estate developers remain the largest borrowers, accounting for 21.77 percent of outstanding corporate credit. This division was followed by the wholesale and retail trade sector at 12.29 percent, utilities, including electricity, gas, and water, at 10.98 percent, and manufacturing, which is close behind at 10.9 percent.




Saudi Central Bank underscored how the Kingdom’s project-driven growth model is reshaping balance-sheet priorities. File/Asharq Alawsat

Within the fastest-growing niches, transport and storage finance soared 47.5 percent to SR67.6 billion, education credit expanded 44.8 percent to SR9.5 billion, real-estate borrowing increased nearly 39 percent, and loans to financial services and insurance firms jumped 35.1 percent to SR159.9 billion, according to SAMA.

Vision 2030 projects drive demand

Large national projects are driving most of the new business borrowing. Huge developments, such as NEOM, the Red Sea resort, Diriyah, and King Salman International Airport, require long-term bank loans to enable builders and suppliers to continue their operations.

Newer industries, including green hydrogen plants and data centers, utilize short-term credit to cover their costs while they are being established.

At the same time, home loan growth is slowing because many families took advantage of subsidized Sakani mortgages between 2021 and 2023.




Corporate borrowing jumped 22 percent year on year to SR1.72 trillion. File/SPA

A March report by JLL says Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy should grow 5.8 percent in this year, up from 4.5 percent in 2024.

JLL expects the real estate market to be worth about $101.6 billion by 2029, an average rise of 8 percent a year, and noted that Grade-A offices in Riyadh are almost fully occupied, pushing prime rents to $609 per sq. meter.

Such conditions translate directly into bank-financed demand for land acquisition, infrastructure outlays and bridging loans for developers racing to deliver stock ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2030 and Expo 2030.

Although real-estate developers still claim the largest slice of corporate credit, another borrower group is accelerating just as quickly: insurers. As the property boom feeds through to compulsory project coverage and fast-growing medical and motor lines, the insurance industry’s need for cash and capital is rising sharply.

According to KPMG’s Saudi Arabia Insurance Overview 2025, sector revenue jumped 16.9 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2024 as compulsory medical cover, brisk motor sales, and a wave of big property projects swelled premium volumes and claims reserves. The same report flags heavy spending on “technological innovation” as firms roll out IFRS-17 systems and digital sales platforms.




A man withdraws money from an ATM outside a Saudi bank in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. File/Reuters

Under SAMA’s rulebook, however, ordinary loans or bond proceeds cannot be counted toward an insurer’s solvency margin unless the central bank gives written approval, and only Basel-style Tier-2 subordinated instruments qualify as supplementary capital.

Facing larger day-to-day cash needs, significant IT expenditures, and tighter capital buffers, alongside a regulator-driven wave of mergers that has already prompted players like Amana Cooperative and ACIG to explore tie-ups to gain scale, insurers are increasingly turning to banks for revolving credit lines and subordinated sukuk financing.

The funding strain is now visible in the monetary statistics. Outstanding bank credit to “financial and insurance activities,” registering one of the fastest growth rates of any sector, reflecting a mix of liquidity borrowings.

The education sector is also borrowing heavily to meet Vision 2030 targets. April’s EDGEx 2025 expo in Riyadh attracted over 20,000 delegates and showcased private-school growth plans that could lift the non-state share of enrolment from roughly 17 percent to 25 percent within five years.

New digital platforms such as Madaris promise to streamline admissions and tuition payments, while PwC’s purchase of Saudi consultancy Emkan underscores the sector’s investment appeal. These dynamics help explain why bank lending to education providers is growing at more than four times the system average.




Large corporations also employ interest-rate swaps and caps to lock in borrowing costs, according to local treasury advisory guidance. File/Reuters

Funding and liquidity

Rapid corporate demand poses funding challenges. Fitch projects that Saudi bank lending will rise by 12 percent to 14 percent in 2025, again surpassing deposit growth and stretching a funding shortfall that had already reached roughly SR0.3 trillion in 2024.

For now, liquidity remains comfortable. The loan-to-deposit ratio stands near 82.41 percent in April, and non-performing loans hover below 1.5 percent, according to SAMA data, thanks in part to stricter underwriting and the central bank’s early-warning analytics.

Interest rates’ dual impact

Contrary to conventional wisdom, elevated interest rates have not dampened corporate borrowing appetite. Several structural factors continue to shield large borrowers from the impact of rising rates.

Project-finance deals tied to government-related entities in the Gulf are typically funded on long-term, availability-based contracts, with pricing linked to government benchmarks rather than floating interbank rates, limiting their direct exposure to movements in SAIBOR.

Large corporations also employ interest-rate swaps and caps to lock in borrowing costs, according to local treasury advisory guidance, so higher policy rates do not translate one-for-one into higher debt-service outlays.




Real-estate developers still claim the largest slice of corporate credit. File/Reuters

Households, by contrast, feel the tightening much sooner. SAMA’s updated disclosure rules require banks to display mortgage rates tied to the three-month SAIBOR, and most variable-rate home finance contracts reset against that benchmark every quarter.

As SAIBOR followed the US Fed trajectory above 5 percent through 2024, monthly repayments for floating-rate mortgages rose accordingly, helping explain why retail-loan growth has cooled relative to corporate demand.

Taken together, the mix of hedged or government-linked pricing on large projects and the immediate SAIBOR pass-through on household mortgages helps explain why elevated interest rates have slowed consumer borrowing more than business lending — without significantly curbing overall credit growth.

The April numbers confirm a structural hand-off. After a decade in which subsidized mortgages dominated credit creation, business lending is now the engine of Saudi banking.

That shift mirrors the broader diversification of the Kingdom’s economy— away from oil, toward industry, logistics, tourism and technology. For lenders, the opportunity is immense, but so is the challenge of funding mega-projects without stretching balance sheet resilience.

With capital ratios near 19 percent and a regulatory regime quick to adapt, Saudi banks appear well-placed to finance the next leg of Vision 2030’s transformation while maintaining the stability that has long been the system’s hallmark.


Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada

Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada

Global Markets — stocks fall, gold gains after Trump sets tariff sights on Canada

SYDNEY/LONDON: Global stocks fell on Friday after US President Donald Trump ramped up his tariff war against Canada, leaving Europe squarely in the firing line, sparking a modest investor push into safe havens like gold, while bitcoin hit a new record high.

The Canadian dollar fell after Trump issued a letter late on Thursday that stated a 35 percent tariff rate on all imports from Canada would apply from August 1, adding the EU would receive a letter by Friday.

The US president, whose global wave of tariffs has upended businesses and policymaking, floated a blanket 15 percent or 20 percent tariff rate on other countries, a step up from the current 10 percent baseline rate.

This week he surprised Brazil, which has a trade surplus with the US, with duties of 50 percent, and hit copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.

Aside from pockets of volatility in target currencies, stocks or commodities, markets have offered little in the way of reaction to the onslaught, leaving the VIX volatility index at its lowest since late February.

In Europe, the STOXX 600, which has risen 2.2 percent this week, fell 0.7 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 0.6 percent, pointing to a retreat from this week’s record highs at the open later.

“The market is becoming a bit numb to these (tariff) announcements, and perhaps it’s not until we see hard data showing an impact that we (will) start to see the market reacting,” City Index strategist Fiona Cincotta said.

“Obviously, we’re getting more information through that does bring with it an element of clarity. Because there is so much uncertainty, there is still this idea that Trump could be open to negotiation, nothing feels ‘final’ still,” she said.

The dollar rose 0.3 percent against the Canadian dollar to $1.3695. The euro, which has lost nearly 1 percent in value since the start of July, was down 0.2 percent at $1.1683.

Earlier in the week, Trump pushed back his tariff deadline of July 9 to August 1 for many trading partners to allow more time for negotiations, but broadened his trade war, setting new rates for a number of countries, including allies Japan and South Korea, along with a 50 percent tariff on copper.

Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the tariff rate of 35 percent on Canada was not as bad as feared because most of the imports are still subject to exemptions under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

“Now the tariff rate on imports from the EU ... That’s what we don’t know as yet,” Capurso said. “If you get something similar to (the US-China trade war in April), that’s going to be very destabilising.”

Wall Street indexes posted record closing highs on Thursday as AI chip maker Nvidia made history, bagging a market valuation above $4 trillion.

Gold rose for a third day in a row, up 0.6 percent to $3,342 an ounce, bringing gains for July so far to 1.2 percent. Treasuries got less of a safe-haven boost, as investor concern about the fragility of long-term US government finances prompted a selloff that pushed yields up.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose 3 basis points to 4.38 percent, adding to Thursday’s rise on the back of data that showed jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week.

The yen, which also typically behaves like a safe-haven, has been steadily weakening as the prospects dim for a US-Japan trade deal. The dollar was up 0.4 percent on Friday at 146.76 yen , set for a weekly gain of 1.6 percent, the biggest this year.

Bitcoin jumped 3.8 percent to $117,880, the highest on record.

Investors will be watching second-quarter corporate earnings next week to gauge the impact of Trump’s tariffs from April 2. JPMorgan Chase is due to release results on Tuesday, essentially kicking off the reporting period.


World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says

World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says

World oil market may be tighter than it looks, IEA says

VIENNA: The world oil market may be tighter than it appears despite a supply and demand balance pointing to a surplus, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, as refineries ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.

The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, up 300,000 bpd from the previous forecast. World demand will rise by just 700,000 bpd, it said, implying a sizeable surplus.

Despite making those changes, the IEA said that rising refinery processing rates aimed at meeting summer travel and power-generation demand were tightening the market and the latest supply hike from OPEC+ announced on Saturday had not had much effect.

“The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter fundamentals,” the agency said in a monthly report.

“Price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances.”

Earlier this week, ministers and executives from OPEC nations and bosses of Western oil majors said the output increases are not leading to higher inventories, showing that markets are thirsty for more oil.

Next year, the IEA sees demand growth averaging 720,000 bpd, some 20,000 bpd lower than previously thought, with supply growth rising by 1.3 million bpd, also implying a surplus.


Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?

Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?

Saudi Arabia’s road to 30% EVs by 2030 — will Tesla be the game-changer?

RIYADH: Tesla’s arrival in Saudi Arabia signals a turning point in the Kingdom’s ambitious electric mobility strategy, with close to half of its citizens now open to purchasing an electric vehicle.

With a target of 30 percent EV adoption by 2030 under Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has gained a powerful ally in Tesla — one that could accelerate progress through competitive pricing, charging infrastructure investments, and potential local manufacturing deals.

This move not only brings one of the world’s most recognizable EV brands to Saudi consumers but also supports the nation’s broader push toward sustainable mobility.

This is also set to be boosted with the launch of the Kingdom’s first homegrown EV brand, Ceer, with production set to begin in 2026.

In an interview with Arab News, Alessandro Tricamo, partner at Oliver Wyman’s transportation and services practice, noted that while EVs currently make up just over 1 percent of vehicle sales, consumer interest is rising. “Nearly half of Saudi citizens say they are considering an EV purchase in the coming years,” he said.

A win-win proposition 

Tesla’s arrival comes at a critical time for the company and the Kingdom alike. The American automaker, facing increasing competition from Chinese rivals like BYD and declining sales in traditional markets, sees Saudi Arabia as a promising new frontier. 

Tricamo explained: “Tesla’s entry into the Saudi market is potentially a significant win-win situation. With its leadership position increasingly challenged by BYD and other manufacturers — and with sales declining in the US and Europe — Tesla is looking to open up new markets.”

He added: “Saudi Arabia, while investing heavily in public transport and mass transit, remains a car-centric country where Tesla’s brand is resonant. This makes the Kingdom a promising growth opportunity for the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer).”

Tesla’s Riyadh showroom and service center, along with pop-up stores in Jeddah and Dammam, introduce Saudi drivers to the Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck — a clear signal of the company’s long-term commitment to the region.

Alessandro Tricamo, partner at Oliver Wyman’s transportation and services practice. Supplied

Fixing infrastructure gap

One of the biggest roadblocks to mass EV adoption is Saudi Arabia’s underdeveloped charging network. With just 101 public charging stations in 2024 — behind the UAE’s 261 — range anxiety remains a major deterrent for potential buyers.

Oliver Wyman’s Tricamo underscored the urgency of infrastructure expansion, saying: “Expanding the Kingdom’s charging infrastructure is arguably the single most critical factor in accelerating EV adoption. As of 2024, Saudi Arabia has around 100 public charging stations, primarily concentrated in Riyadh.”

He added: “For comparison, the UAE has nearly three times as many, despite having only a third of Saudi Arabia’s population.”

To address this, Saudi authorities are rolling out high-speed charging stations along key routes, including the 900 km Riyadh-Makkah corridor, which currently lacks any charging points. Tesla’s planned Supercharger network — open to other brands — could be a game changer if deployed swiftly.

However, rapid infrastructure expansion brings its own risks. Taline Vahanian, placement leader at Marsh UAE, an insurance broker and risk adviser, warned that high-speed charging stations, by their nature, handle significant electrical loads and integrate advanced digital control systems.

“This exposure brings a range of liability risks — from electrical malfunctions that might result in fires or physical injuries to property damage caused by system failures or cyberattacks,” she told Arab News, adding: “Additionally, integrating an array of new charging stations into an evolving power grid presents operational challenges such as voltage fluctuations, grid stability issues, and the necessity for specialized, regular maintenance.” 

A new EV manufacturing hub?

Lucid is majority owned by the Public Investment Fund. Getty

While Tesla makes its retail debut, Lucid Motors — backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund — is already establishing local production, with a Jeddah factory set to manufacture thousands of EVs annually. This positions the Kingdom as a potential regional EV production hub, reducing reliance on imports. 

Vahanian highlighted the challenges of local production, saying: “On the supply chain front, vulnerabilities arise as the industry remains heavily dependent on imported components and critical raw materials. These dependencies are susceptible to international trade disruptions or logistical bottlenecks.”

She added: “Harmonizing standards and streamlining certification processes on the regulatory front will be crucial; any delays or misalignments with international standards could disrupt production schedules and cause cascading delays.”

Can EVs survive Saudi summers? 

Extreme temperatures pose another major challenge for EV adoption. Lithium-ion batteries degrade faster in heat, raising concerns about long-term durability. 

Tesla and Lucid are countering this with advanced liquid cooling systems and heat-resistant materials, while Saudi researchers are exploring solid-state batteries for better performance.

Vahanian emphasized the risks, saying: “In Saudi Arabia’s harsh desert climate, battery safety is a paramount concern. EV batteries rely on sophisticated thermal management systems, yet extreme ambient temperatures can accelerate degradation and — even in rare cases — trigger thermal runaway or fire incidents.”

She added that compounding this risk is the “nascent state” of the charging infrastructure, which must contend with sand, dust, and persistent heat stress — all of which elevates the possibility of technical failures and unexpected downtime.

Taline Vahanian, placement leader at Marsh UAE. Supplied

Tricamo offered a more optimistic view: “I believe the impact of extreme heat on EV performance is often overstated. While high temperatures can pose challenges for batteries, such conditions are limited to certain periods, and battery technology is improving rapidly to support performance across a wide temperature range.”

He added: “EVs have been operating in the region for several years with virtually no performance issues. A more relevant environmental concern may be sand and dust, which can affect charging stations and equipment. But even here, mitigation measures are relatively straightforward and already well understood.”

Insurance and cost

Another hurdle is the higher cost of insuring EVs compared to traditional vehicles.

Vahanian explained that unlike traditional cars powered by internal combustion engines, EVs rely on sophisticated battery systems, state-of-the-art electronics, and specialized components that require expert handling.

“When collisions or mishaps occur, repairing these systems can be significantly pricier than conventional repairs. Limited availability of repair facilities and trained technicians — particularly in emerging markets like KSA — exacerbates these costs,” she said.

The Marsh UAE official added that insurers are adapting but warns of potential premium hikes: “Insurance companies, which traditionally set premiums based on anticipated claim payouts and repair costs, are therefore likely to face higher liabilities. In anticipation, we can expect a recalibration of premiums, reflecting a more accurate risk profile and the amplified repair costs associated with EVs.”

Vahanian went on to say: “Higher repair costs inevitably feed into the economics of risk assessment for insurers. As claims tend to rise with the complexity and expense of EV repairs, premium rates may correspondingly increase to maintain the insurers’ financial stability.”

She noted that higher EV insurance premiums could have a dual effect — while buyers are attracted by lower fuel costs and environmental benefits, steep insurance rates might weaken their appeal, particularly given the already high upfront costs.

The road to 2030

Despite these challenges, Saudi Arabia’s EV revolution is undeniably gaining momentum. Tricamo stressed that government intervention will be crucial. “To accelerate the transition, targeted government intervention will be essential — both to level the playing field and to fast-track the decarbonization of mobility,” he said.

Tricamo added that petrol vehicles remain significantly cheaper to operate in the region due to low fuel prices and a lack of EV incentives, while limited charging infrastructure further hinders widespread adoption.

Vahanian echoed this sentiment, calling for collaboration between policymakers and insurers, saying: “By collaborating with insurance providers, policymakers can create schemes that provide favorable premium rates or bundled services, thereby alleviating consumer concerns and accelerating market penetration.”

Full speed ahead 

With Tesla’s market entry, Lucid’s local production, and government-backed infrastructure investments, Saudi Arabia is fast-tracking its EV transition. Yet hurdles like charging deserts, affordability, battery resilience, and insurance costs must be overcome to reach the 30 percent adoption goal.


Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions

Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions
Updated 11 July 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions

Oil Updates — crude rises as investors weigh market outlook, tariffs, sanctions

LONDON: Oil prices rose by around 1 percent on Friday as investors weighed a tight prompt market against a potential large surplus this year forecast by the IEA, while US tariffs and possible further sanctions on Russia were also in focus.

Brent crude futures were up 76 cents, or 1.11 percent, at $69.40 a barrel as of 2:53 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 82 cents, or 1.23 percent, to $67.39 a barrel.

At those levels, Brent was headed for a 1.6 percent gain on the week, while WTI was up around 0.6 percent from last week’s close.

The IEA said on Friday the global oil market may be tighter than it appears, with demand supported by peak summer refinery runs to meet travel and power-generation.
Front-month September Brent contracts were trading at a $1.11 premium to October futures at 2:53 p.m. Saudi time.

“Civilians, be they in the air or on the road, are showing a healthy willingness to travel,” PVM analyst John Evans said in a note on Friday.

Prompt tightness notwithstanding, the IEA boosted its forecast for supply growth this year, while trimming its outlook for growth in demand, implying a market in surplus.

“OPEC+ will quickly and significantly turn up the oil tap. There is a threat of significant oversupply. In the short term, however, oil prices remain supported,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Further adding support to the short-term outlook, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia will compensate for overproduction against its OPEC+ quota this year in August-September.

Longer term, however, rival forecasting agency OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 to 2029 because of slowing Chinese demand, the group said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday.

Both benchmark futures contracts lost more than 2 percent on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of Trump’s evolving tariff policy on global economic growth and oil demand.

“Prices have recouped some of this decline after President Trump said he plans to make a ‘major’ statement on Russia on Monday. This could leave the market nervous over the potential for further sanctions on Russia,” ING analysts wrote in a client note.

Trump has expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to the lack of progress on peace with Ukraine and Russia’s intensifying bombardment of Ukrainian cities.

The European Commission is set to propose a floating Russian oil price cap this week as part of a new draft sanctions package, but Russia said it has “good experience” of tackling and minimizing such challenges. 


Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April

Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April
Updated 10 July 2025
Follow

Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April

Saudi non-oil trade surplus with GCC jumps over 200% in April

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil trade surplus with fellow Gulf Cooperation Council countries jumped by more than 200 percent in April 2025, driven by a sharp rise in re-exports and strengthening regional economic ties.

According to the latest figures released by the General Authority for Statistics, the Kingdom posted a trade surplus of SR3.51 billion ($935 million) with GCC nations during the month, compared to just SR1.16 billion in April 2024 — a year-on-year increase of 203.2 percent.

The total value of non-oil trade, which includes re-exports, between Saudi Arabia and the GCC bloc reached SR18.03 billion in April, reflecting a robust 41.3 percent growth from SR12.76 billion in the same month last year.

This momentum is attributed to the accelerated pace of regional economic integration, supported by strategic initiatives such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and similar diversification programs across the Gulf. These frameworks aim to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons by fostering growth in sectors like logistics, finance, tourism, and manufacturing.

Non-oil exports — encompassing both national products and re-exported goods — saw a notable rise of 55 percent year on year to SR10.77 billion. Within this category, re-exports surged by 81 percent to SR7.74 billion, highlighting Saudi Arabia’s growing role as a regional re-export hub. National-origin exports also rose by 13.3 percent, totaling SR3.03 billion.

Imports from GCC countries also registered an increase, climbing to SR7.26 billion in April — a 25.2 percent rise compared to SR5.80 billion in the previous year.

Among individual member states, the UAE continued to dominate Saudi Arabia’s regional trade portfolio, accounting for SR13.53 billion — or 75.1 percent — of the Kingdom’s total non-oil trade with the GCC. Bahrain followed with SR1.8 billion (10 percent), while Oman recorded SR1.45 billion (8.1 percent). Kuwait and Qatar contributed SR819.9 million (4.5 percent) and SR422.1 million (2.3 percent), respectively.

The data reflects not only Saudi Arabia’s growing non-oil export capacity but also a broader regional shift toward more diversified, interconnected Gulf economies.