ISLAMABAD: Pakistan this week stepped up disaster preparedness as authorities warned of fresh flash flood risks across northern regions and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecast El Niño would continue strengthening into a major climate event, raising the likelihood of more extreme weather in the months ahead.
Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change despite contributing less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Floods in 2022 submerged a third of the country, killed more than 1,700 people and caused billions of dollars in economic losses.
The country is already grappling with an active monsoon season that had killed 136 people and injured 418 nationwide since June 26, according to the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) latest figures released on Monday. On Tuesday, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said six more people had been killed and six injured in rain- and flash flood-related incidents across the province since July 29.
Since the devastating 2022 floods, authorities have expanded glacial lake monitoring, weather forecasting and emergency coordination in an effort to improve preparedness and reduce disaster risks.
On Tuesday, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said its Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Monitoring Cell had successfully identified potential flash flood risks in several glaciated valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and issued timely warnings to local authorities.
“Through continuous 24/7 monitoring, real-time analysis, and the dedicated efforts of PMD’s GLOF Monitoring Cell, potential flash flood risks were identified and warning messages were promptly disseminated to the concerned authorities and vulnerable communities,” the department said in a statement.
The PMD said warnings were issued for vulnerable areas including Madaklasht, Reshun, Badswat, Darkut, Shimshal and Matiltan, enabling local authorities to activate early warning systems and take precautionary measures to protect lives and property.
The latest weather-related incidents underline the continuing risks. The KP PDMA said six people, including two women and four children, had been killed after heavy rains and flash floods caused roofs and walls to collapse in several districts since July 29. Another six people, including two women and four children, were injured.
The authority said 65 houses had been damaged, including 24 that were completely destroyed and 41 that sustained partial damage. The affected districts include Abbottabad, Swat, Buner, Khyber, Lower Chitral, Lower Dir, Mansehra, Mardan, Peshawar, Shangla, Swabi, Upper Dir and Upper Kohistan.
Separately, the WMO said El Niño was continuing to strengthen and was expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August-October period, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures and significant shifts in rainfall patterns around the world.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It alters atmospheric circulation worldwide, often increasing the risk of floods in some regions while contributing to droughts and heatwaves in others. The WMO cautioned that every El Niño event is different and that its impacts vary depending on regional weather patterns.
Pakistan’s NDMA also warned on Tuesday that river flows were expected to increase across major river systems over the next 24 hours, with flash flooding likely in streams and torrents in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and northern Balochistan.
The authority identified Hunza, Shigar, Gupis-Yasin and Ghanche in Gilgit-Baltistan, Haripur and Mansehra in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Bagh and Haveli in Azad Kashmir, and Zhob, Musakhel and Sherani in Balochistan among areas facing elevated flash flood risks.
The KP PDMA urged people to avoid unnecessary travel, stay away from vulnerable tourist destinations and follow official weather adviseries, adding that emergency response teams remained on alert.
Separately, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir visited the National Emergencies Operation Center at NDMA headquarters in Islamabad on Tuesday, where he was briefed on the country’s disaster preparedness and technology-enabled emergency response systems for the ongoing monsoon season.
During the visit, he emphasized the importance of readiness, effective inter-agency coordination and swift response to safeguard lives and critical infrastructure, while reaffirming the armed forces’ readiness to assist civil authorities in relief, rescue and rehabilitation operations.
Pakistan has experienced increasingly erratic weather in recent years, ranging from prolonged heatwaves and droughts to devastating floods. Scientists say climate change is increasing both the frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events, posing growing risks to vulnerable communities across the country.
