Dr. Condoleezza Rice, who took over from Colin Powell as secretary of state, has now been in that office for over half a year. Provost of Stanford at the early age of 38, she worked as President George Bush’s national security adviser during his first term and was clearly extremely close to him. But it was a period when both Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld were directing American foreign policy, not Colin Powell, and Condoleezza Rice seemed to some to be little more than a conduit for the views of those in more senior positions.
Today it is acknowledged in Washington that she has seized control of foreign policy. She has performed so far with style and vigor, and has traveled extensively, unlike her predecessor who feared what Donald Rumsfeld might get up to during his absence from Washington. She has star quality, but as a difficult visit to Khartoum proved she can also be tough. What is not yet clear is what direction she will seek to steer America’s foreign policy and at a time when the sky is dark for the United States.
Iraq must be her No. 1 problem — a poisoned chalice. I write a few days after a dozen bombs killed more than 160 people in Baghdad. Before President Bush leaves the White House in just over three years, real progress has to be made in Iraq and the majority of US servicemen brought back home, if Bush’s eight years in office are not to record a massive foreign policy failure. She made a surprise visit to Iraq in May and talks regularly on the phone to Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad in Baghdad. However, one can see few signs as yet that she has found a path through the treacherous bog of Iraqi politics and violence in 2005. The conundrum remains that while American forces are clearly part of the problem — and seen by many as occupiers and pro-Israel — their sudden removal would make Iraq ungovernable at present.
At last Israel is out of Gaza, where it had not the slightest reason to be in the first place, and it is vital that Ariel Sharon is not allowed just to sit back and rest but rather comes under powerful and sustained pressure to withdraw further illegal settlements from the West Bank. Many argued before the Gaza withdrawal, inside and outside Israel, that such a move was designed to consolidate Israel’s already very strong position on the West Bank. The world has no alternative but to look to the United States to come to its aid and that of the Palestinians. Condoleezza Rice will not have a better opening as secretary of state to make her mark. This is the moment for hands-on action by her, and the road map awaits her attention.
Surprisingly little seems to be known of her personal thoughts on Arab-Israeli dispute. She is a discreet secretary of state; throw-away remarks are not for her. In January the press in America revealed how she had firmly warned Israel during the last two years over some aspects of its approach to the Palestinians. In particular she was concerned over the Wall — presumably its route through Palestinian territory.
Condoleezza Rice, if she likes it or not and loyalty is her hallmark, has to support her president’s desire to use American power to promote democracy in the Middle East. She has more than once compared that policy with that of Secretary of State George Marshall’s success in checking the spread of communism in Europe after World War II through the Marshall Plan and its aid and support to Western Europe. (Presumably she has checking Islamic extremism in mind, but as a European I find the comparison an odd one). She may be prepared to change the tone over the promotion of democracy in the Middle East, which would be useful for the Europeans and others. Few in the Middle East, beyond the ranks of religious zealots, are opposed to the encouragement of democracy in their region as in Latin America and elsewhere. What they are opposed to is the assertive use of American military power to archive that goal — and rightly so.
Those who have known the secretary of state over a long period believe she favors a more multilateral foreign policy. Donald Rumsfeld is unlikely to be around for much longer and Dick Cheney has his health problems. It is perfectly possible she may be able to shift the balance of power in Washington away from unilateralism.
Like Colin Powell she understands that America needs friends and allies, and she has been seeking to improve the image of the United States in the world. (New Orleans has further harmed it). She has done well repairing damaged fences in Europe.
Before the year is out this prodigiously talented and highly respected woman must reveal her true colors.
