The juxtaposition of events in international affairs provides constant fascination. President George Bush faces mounting political troubles in Washington and most stem from America’s increasingly unpopular involvement in Iraq.
The White House were hoping desperately that Iraq would approve of its draft constitution and allow the president at least one clear and shiny day of good news. Instead, on the day that it was announced the constitution had been agreed, it was also announced that the somber milestone of 2,000 military deaths in Iraq had been reached by the American forces.
Like many others I was surprised that in the Sunni provinces only two rejected the constitution with more than two thirds of their voters.
If three had it would have been back to the drawing-board — and a dangerous political crisis that a hostile international press would have fed on. But it was close. The “No” vote in Nineveh was 55.08 percent.
Inevitably there were some cries of foul play from the Sunni community. There was a careful audit of the ballot in Nineveh which resulted in a ten-day delay for the final result. No evidence of wrongdoing was found by the UN team.
Some Sunnis claimed the result would add to the day-to-day violence in Iraq. I am not so sure. It does seem that the Sunnis do now appreciate that staying away from the poll last January was a big mistake, and I would expect the Sunni vote in the December elections to go up again.
The big picture is that 79 percent of those voting across Iraq backed the constitution and 21 percent opposed it. The turnout was 63 percent, which in the United Kingdom would be well regarded. I am certain last minute concessions were of critical importance for the Sunnis.
The US constitution has been amended well over a hundred times, and we should expect further changes, and soon, to the Iraqi constitution. People are entitled to believe that democracy is getting embedded in Iraq and that is excellent news for the Arab world. Jack Straw, Britain’s foreign secretary, declared:
“The Iraqi people have shown again their determination to defy the terrorists and take part in the democratic process.”
He considered the result as “an important step in the development of a democratic, stable and inclusive Iraq.”
The 2,000 American deaths will have increasing political resonance in the United States for a variety of reasons. From a population of 295 million it may not appear to be a large figure, and over 55,000 American troops died in Vietnam, but a significant number of those killed in Iraq were reservists who thought they would be helping out at home rather than being on active service abroad. Some states such as California and Texas have lost a far higher number (211 and 178 respectively) than other states. 46 of those killed were women.
The American media did not perform well over Iraq, and an increasing number of American journalists now realize they should have pressed the administration harder over such matters as WMD. Those journalists who did oppose the war, and in many cases came under some pressure, now feel they have been vindicated and seek to make the most of their new standing. The row over the two White House aides, Karl Rove and Lewis “Scooter” Libby, revolves around alleged attempts to discredit critics of the invasion of Iraq. We should expect the media in the United States to take a more sturdy stance in future over the handling of Iraq and the accelerating number of casualties. The peace movement will gather momentum.
In the United Kingdom some politicians and writers described the referendum on Oct. 15 as a crucial turning point. This is too optimistic. A political ridge has been climbed and there are many more ahead. At Westminster there has been a loss of confidence in Iraq’s present Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari. It is much hoped that following the December elections a stronger and more effective government will move into place.
One can hardly blame the Iraqis if they do not see the referendum result as a turning point. Daily life remains grim with jobs hard to find. Yes, the water supply has improved and the electricity is on for longer, but there is terrible insecurity and few dare go out at night. Prior to the referendum there was welcome dip in the level of violence and during it. But the Americans are still at the receiving end of hundreds of attacks — not each month but each week.
Polls suggest most Iraqis approve of such attacks. 30,000 Iraqi soldiers have been trained and equipped; they are far from ready to take over responsibility for security from the coalition forces. Against such a background a significant reduction of American and British troops remains highly unlikely at present.
