LONDON, 28 March 2006 — Will he stay, will he go? Speculation mounted yesterday over the future of Tony Blair after the British prime minister admitted he may have made a mistake by pledging to quit before the next election.
Blair’s office tried to play down his surprise remarks to an Australian radio station, fearful they would further weaken his grip on power.
But the admission made the headlines in British newspapers and on television as Blair continued a trip to Australia. He is also due to travel to New Zealand and Indonesia this week on a diplomatic tour.
The latest furor came on the back of a financial scandal over secret loans given to Blair’s governing Labour Party. It also struck as the prime minister suffers low approval ratings.
A recent opinion poll showed just 36 percent of people asked were in favor of Blair, while 52 percent said they wanted him to resign in 12 months.
“Blair knows when he is going, but date is secret,” the Financial Times said in a front-page article.
The Guardian also hinted the 52-year-old had set a departure date.
But the newspaper, which is seen to support Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) Gordon Brown — the man portrayed as Blair’s most likely successor — added that the timing was “unlikely to be as soon as Labour rebels hope.”
The question surrounding Blair’s exit from Downing Street has dogged him since he won a record third, successive term in office last May.
In September 2004, Blair announced he would not serve a fourth term, meaning he must bow out before the next general election, which is due by 2010.
Despite the speculation fueled by his latest remarks, the British leader appears determined to stay in power for a good while longer.
Speaking about his future plans in the lower chamber of Parliament last week, he said: “I shall be here for the time that is necessary to carry through the program upon which we were elected.”
Among his list of goals is a reform of the debt-laden National Health Service, which will not be completed before the end of 2008 at the earliest. With no election due for another three or four years, Blair seems in no rush to hand over the reins to his heir-apparent Brown, who has already waited a decade for the top job.
Leading government ministers are also sending out confusing signals over when to expect a transfer of power.
Last week, Home Secretary Charles Clarke forecast that Blair, who has managed to ride out previous storms, would stay where he is until 2008.
Minister of Northern Ireland Peter Hain, for his part, raised the prospect of a Blair government lasting until 2010.
Some experts predict the premier is angling to beat former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s term in office of 11-and-a-half years. This would see Blair staying in office until the end of November 2008. His remarks to Australia’s ABC radio on Sunday, however, have further complicated the situation.
Asked whether it was a mistake to have pledged to step down before the next election, Blair responded that it was an “unusual thing for me to say but people kept asking me the question so I decided to answer it. Maybe that was a mistake.”
David Cameron, leader of the main opposition Conservatives, seized on the controversy over the remark to score political points, saying it had “created a lot of uncertainty”.
“At the moment we have got a prime minister desperate to stay, a chancellor desperate for him to go and a Cabinet who do not know whether to follow the leader today or wait for the leader tomorrow, and as a result we have got bad government,” Cameron said.
Menzies Campbell, leader of the smaller opposition Liberal Democrats, also waded into the debate.
“It is time for the prime minister to tell us his own exit strategy,” he said. “His admission in Australia has only added to the current uncertainty and sense of drift.”
The uncertainty will likely continue for months.
“He is not leading the party into the next election, he has said that, but apart from that we don’t know,” Rodney Barker, a professor of political science at the London School of Economics, told AFP.
“The pressure is getting greater all the time, he is losing a few more feathers each time,” he said, while adding: “Political leaders never believe that it is time for them to go.”
