At no time since Hamas’ coming to power more than a year ago have there been as many high-profile attempts to get the Palestinians back onto the peace track. Assisting the Palestinians at present is the Kingdom where high-level Fatah and Hamas talks will be held tomorrow. President Hosni Mubarak is also trying to put together a deal between the two factions. A meeting in the US between Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas, led by Secretary of State Rice, is also on the cards. Rice and other Western leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, insist this is a moment of opportunity. Rice, just back from a Middle East trip, speaks of a “change of environment” and “realignment that clarifies” the way forward.
While applauding any renewed effort to resolve the conflict, many do not see the opening Rice is talking about. For one, the Quartet of powers has not developed a new strategy for peace. Its reaffirmation that the year-old embargo against the Palestinians would remain in place until Hamas agrees to recognize the Jewish state, renounces violence and accepts previous agreements shows that it is working in isolation and maintaining a position that drove the Palestinians to their present deadly rivalry. In effect, the Quartet says a Palestinian national unity government is not enough; Hamas has to accept the Quartet’s conditions — and without making any demands on Israel. This is a policy posture aimed at securing Israel’s conditions for a settlement and nobody else’s. At least Russia has called for a lifting of the freeze on international aid to the Palestinian government, and also favors bringing Syria into the Middle East peace dialogue, a suggestion Rice ruled out. The administration has also seemed to court other dangerous options by arming and financing Fatah. By freeing $86 million to bolster Fatah security forces, the administration is clearly on Fatah’s side, hoping that once Hamas is brought to its knees, once it is forced to accept a national unity government, peace will automatically follow.
Meanwhile, those responsible for the violence must have forgotten that their infighting is taking place in an occupied land, hemmed in as it is by Israeli fences and walls, and by an occupation force which must be smiling with glee as Palestinians are shamelessly slaughtering one another, a job that has long been done by Israel and Israel alone.
It is obvious Fatah and Hamas cannot agree without outside help. Neither Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas nor Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, who are locked in disagreement, would seem to be in the kind of position to make the compromises needed for a national unity government and beyond. Given that they are being helped in some quarters and not in others, the odds of reaching a durable cease-fire in place of others which have collapsed almost immediately after their announcement are not good — but the alternative is that the odds may improve. Tomorrow will tell.
