It will be clear today who has won the elections to Algeria’s lower house of Parliament. Few doubt that the National Liberation Front (FLN), which has dominated Algerian politics since independence in 1962, will remain the largest single party. Its three partners in the present coalition government, which includes a moderate Islamic party, are also expected to do well.
However, will the results cement Algeria’s return to peace after 15 years of violence in which 200,000 people have perished? The administration of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has already promised an ambitious $140 billion public-works program for new schools, hospitals, roads and railways to be undertaken in the next five years. Hopefully this exercise will be an improvement on past ambitious state expenditures of oil wealth, which have often been marred by corruption and poor implementation. Besides which, massive government expenditure, though creating jobs in the short term, is unlikely to bite long term into the high rate of unemployment, currently put at 30 percent.
One reason the return of peace has not seen an upsurge in economic activity has been limited economic liberalization of the socialist economy established at independence. Individuals with powerful government connections have run much of the private sector. Lack of a genuine free market and of extensive bank and stock market capital sources have inhibited the economic growth, which could have created new jobs and new wealth. Just as success breeds success, so too economic failure has bred more economic failure.
Forty-five years after their liberation, most Algerians are despondent at the lack of change. It was that despondency which helped fuel the surge of electoral support for the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) in 1992. The military’s cancellation of those elections to block a FIS victory set off the bloody civil conflict. Now prominent FIS figures including those who abandoned violence at the end of the decade have been banned from participating in the election. There is a clear risk that by keeping them from the peaceful democratic process, the authorities may be forcing them back toward violence. Despite a general desire for peace, there is a hard core of terrorists now operating under the name of Al-Qaeda of North Africa who have perpetrated deadly bombings in recent months. These people might at the moment be insignificant but may attract wider support if disillusion with a lack of economic and social progress continues.
Perhaps most important will be the number of Algerians who voted yesterday. In 1997 some 60 percent took part. While the FLN remained dominant, moderate opposition parties did well. Five years later however the turnout had fallen to 42 percent. Another low turnout will signal that the Algerian establishment, including the powerful military, must do something serious to restore popular faith in the democratic process.
