President Bush believes that, given time, the war in Iraq can be won. He believes it because he needs to. He will be judged on Iraq and with just 18 months left to his presidency he does not want to go down in history as a failure, a president who led the country into a war it lost. There is no logical basis for his bullishness. No amount of military muscle and billions of dollars thrown at Iraq are going to make for peace and stability there. Thanks to four years of grossly mishandled occupation, it is too late to even think about victories. The US-led military presence is now part of the problem, not the answer. The battle is no longer a military one, it is one for hearts and minds — and it is a battle long lost. The longer US troops stay, the greater the resentment.
It is all very well saying that this is a war that has to be won. That is a wish, not a cold assessment of fact. Wishful thinking does not win wars. There comes a point when facts have to be faced and decisions taken, no matter how uncomfortable. That is the politician’s job.
The argument that Iraq will be in a far worse situation if the US forces pull out may be true but it cannot be the determining factor in deciding whether they stay or go; to stand by it is to deliver the White House into the hands of Iraqi politicians who use the American presence as both a safety net and an excuse for not making their own uncomfortable decisions.
The only others who gain from a continued American presence are those who have been helping themselves to the treasure troves of US dollars that have poured so ineffectively into the country and who will be the first to head off to wealthy exile when US troops finally leave.
Thursday’s vote in the US House of Representatives for a pullout by April next year shows that the battle for Iraqi hearts and minds is not the only one that the White House has lost. If the Senate does likewise, Bush will of course veto the legislation. But he would be wrong because the vote, the third by the House this year, provides him with the only honorable exit strategy in town. The House does not envisage a total pullout; some Americans would stay to train Iraqi troops and carry out counter-terrorism operations. The plan offers Bush the chance to be still there and yet not be there. He could then claim that the job has been done, Iraq is now standing on its own two feet, but that the war against terrorism is still being pursued with vigor.
It is an offer well worth taking. Regardless of what he wants, a pullout is going to be decided within the next 18 months. If he does not order it, the Democrats will after they win the presidential election, which they will on present form. Better for him that it is done during his presidency with some measure of dignity, rather than by his successor who will be only too happy to let the world know about the mess that has been inherited, which has to be cleared up and how much it has all cost.
