The return to power for the third time of Italy’s maverick center-right leader, Silvio Berlusconi is reportedly causing unease among other EU countries. This outspoken populist leader has not in the past minced his words about European politicians, most famously likening one heckling German member of the European Parliament to a concentration camp guard.
But for Italy, the multibillionaire media tycoon’s overwhelming victory in this week’s election may spell good news. The Italian economy, never completely robust or well ordered is in growing trouble. Recessionary pressures and rising commodity prices have finally exposed the consequences of a bloated government machine and state-owed sector that pay themselves far too much for doing far too little. The mess has been building up during most of the 61 postwar governments, in large measure because Italy has long been run by career politicians, better at cutting behind-the-scenes deals with each other than actually running a modern economy. Any who have had the vision to appreciate the need for change have failed because the multiparty coalitions that have characterized Italian politics are notoriously incapable of taking robust decisions.
But this time the voters have transformed the political landscape. Berlusconi’s party, formerly “Go Italy”, now called “People of Freedom” with its partner, the Northern League, has clear majorities in both parliamentary chambers. More to the point, there are now just six different parties elected to Parliament, as against 24 previously. Even with proportional representation, many of the 120 contesting parties, including the once powerful communists, have been wiped out.
Berlusconi, therefore, has the mandate to drive through change, reform Italy’s ailing economy and slash its mammoth bureaucracy. If he really embarks on this process, Italians may be shocked at the short-term hardships it will bring. From Britain’s Margaret Thatcher onward, the lesson of economic reform in dysfunctional European economies is that initially it hurts. But Berlusconi’s past record as premier shows that he ducked many of the difficult decisions that he says he is now determined to make. After all, this is the man who promised to clean up corruption but was himself indicted, along with his brother for graft and only escaped prosecution by scandalously changing the law to protect himself.
Additionally, Italy’s new premier may have a business rather than a political background but his business is the media that he dominates in Italy. There remain doubts about the wisdom of having political and media power gathered into the same hands in a modern democracy.
Will he really apply sound business practices to his country’s failing economy? Pundits are saying that his political partners, the Northern League, will keep him focused this time. The Milan-based league wants economic decentralization, thus allowing Italy’s economic powerhouse, which they represent, to escape the dead weight of the Mafia-dominated south, which drains large quantities of both Italy and the EU’s budgets. This is effectively Berlusconi’s third chance to get it right for Italy. The coming months will show if he is really the man to bring about fundamental changes.
