It would be an understatement to say that the recent escalation in tension between Hamas and Fatah in Gaza will prove catastrophic to the Palestinian national cause. But the statement is true nevertheless. We have been on this road before and, just as in the past, the only party that stands to gain from Palestinian fratricide is Israel.
Few days after Hamas began rounding up Fatah activists in Gaza in the wake of mysterious bombings that took the lives of scores of civilians and activists, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that Jerusalem would not be included in any future peace deal with the Palestinians. A day before he said this, Israeli soldiers surrounded a house where a Palestinian activist was hiding in the West Bank town of Hebron for several hours before demolishing the building and killing the top Hamas militant.
On Monday, Israeli soldiers forcefully evicted families from a building in the East Jerusalem suburb of Beit Hanina before leveling it on the pretence that an extension was added without a legal permit.
On the ground the situation has not improved for millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. International aid agencies warned that poverty levels in the Gaza Strip have reached dangerous levels and that the flow of humanitarian assistance is still being hampered by Israeli restrictions. In the West Bank, Israeli promises to remove roadblocks, free Palestinian prisoners and make daily life a bit easier for inhabitants have not been honored.
Peace negotiations are floundering and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is yet to prove to his beleaguered people that Israel will meet the minimum of Palestinian conditions for an historic agreement to be reached by the end of this year.
Hamas, which has been in control of Gaza for two years now, has failed to move beyond the shaky truce with Israel which was mediated through the Egyptians few weeks ago. The international crossing with Egypt remains closed and Israel regulates the flow of goods through the border points with the strip. Not much to celebrate, especially when Hamas is looking for a major breakthrough by completing a deal with Israel to release hundreds of prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit. Israel maintains that the truce could end at any time and is unwilling to conclude a deal similar to that which it had reached and executed with Hezbollah recently through German mediation.
Israel has been reluctant to move its negotiations with the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) into the next level. Instead, it has shown that it will not bargain over Jerusalem nor will it be generous over the fate of illegal West Bank settlements. The fact is that Olmert and his Cabinet have not been sensitive to the predicament that Abbas finds himself in.
And it is quite a mess for the Palestinian president. At this point of time, he cannot rely on the support of the Bush administration, which is backing off and allowing the Israelis to control the pace of negotiations. His Arab allies, namely Egypt, Jordan and the Saudi Arabia, have overextended themselves and are unlikely to succeed in pressuring a lame-duck president in Washington and a politically troubled prime minister in Israel.
The Europeans have no real value in the ongoing negotiations and are waiting for the outcome of the US elections in November before deciding on a common approach. Their main concern at the moment is focused on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the increasing challenges in Afghanistan.
And neither Abbas nor Hamas can expect much help from the rest of the Arabs. The fact of the matter is that almost everyone is either bored or has given up on trying to solve the crisis between Hamas and Fatah. The Saudis, Yemenis, Egyptians and others have all tried without much success. Internally, the divisions have been exploited by Israel and even the neutral parties within the Palestinian national movement have failed to bring reconciliation.
Hamas has rejected propositions to send Egyptian or Arab forces to Gaza to control the peace and allow for a return to normalcy. And so, the situation in the past few days has deteriorated with Hamas rounding up Fatah activists and the PNA denouncing such tactics.
Regardless of Hamas’ justifications for its recent crackdown on Fatah activists, the facts are clear. Neither party can offer a way out of the most dangerous Palestinian predicament in decades. As much as reconciliation seems far-fetched today, it remains the only plausible path for either side. Hamas cannot secure more than it had done under the present circumstances and Israel is not willing to offer additional gains to the rulers of Gaza. On the other hand, Abbas will not succeed in reeling any concessions from Israel at a time when neither Olmert nor Bush is politically fit.
And with Arab and international indifference to the present Palestinian conundrum, it falls on the shoulders of Fatah and Hamas leaders to see the benefits of moving closer to each other and preventing further deterioration.
The signs are not hopeful and the inter-Palestinian rift, with Israeli prodding, is likely to widen. Only a miracle in the form of sound judgment and sudden inspiration of wisdom can save the day.
