SOUTH Africa is in uncertain times. The ruling by a high court judge 10 days ago that there has been a political witch-hunt of Jacob Zuma, the ANC’s president and the man who is almost certain to become the country’s president when elections are next held, and the decision by President Thabo Mbeki to resign on Sunday are a political earthquake — and no one can be sure of where they are going to take the country.
Some will say that the events prove the strength of democracy and the rule of law in South Africa. There is a degree of truth in this. Thabo Mbeki resigned because, following the court judgment, a special session of the ruling ANC’s executive committee demanded he step down. There are not many other countries in Africa where a president feels obliged to follow the demands of his party. Equally, the court ruling that the procedures of the corruption charges against Zuma had been politically driven does represent a triumph of justice. Elsewhere in Africa, if the president wants someone found guilty of a crime, he is found guilty; the courts are not independent.
However, if it is true that this was a case of political interference, then the independence of the South African legal system is already in question. What South Africans will want to know is if this trial is a watershed that sees the restoration of judicial integrity in the country or whether, under a Zuma presidency, political interference in the courts might become commonplace.
There are also questions about Zuma himself, fired three years ago as vice president by Mbeki after his financial adviser was found guilty of taking a bribe on his behalf. He is a populist, a radical and deeply ambitious who has built his support base by promising South Africa’s poor that he can improve their lives — such as land reform. Once in office, he may yet prove the pragmatist; his appeal to Mbeki loyalists to remain in government rather than leave, which could mark the beginning of the ANC splitting, suggests that he has it in him to make pragmatic decisions. Will he opt for socialism and land reform? If he does, it will be the kiss of death to the economy. He may reap short-term rewards in terms of popularity but the long-term result will be greater misery. South Africa’s best hope of improvement for its poor comes from investment, new jobs and a growing economy — and they are built on investor confidence. Take that away and the investment will dry up. There are other questions. His willingness to rely on supporters who in recent days have been no more than a lawless rabble and his refusal to rein them in or condemn them is deeply disturbing. Is he going to be a president like Robert Mugabe, who once in office, pulls the drawbridge up behind him? Will he give himself immunity from prosecution on the corruption charges that were only thrown out by the high court on a technicality? Will he go for revenge against the country’s whites for the decades of apartheid rule, as some of his supporters want?
These questions were voiced before Mbeki resigned because ever since Zuma challenged him for the party’s leadership last December and won, it has been clear that he will become president when the elections take place, probably in March. Mbeki’s resignation has merely brought them to the fore. For the time being, the ANC has to get its choice of caretaker president, its deputy leader Kgalema Motlanthe, ratified by Parliament. He may well be used to test changes that Zuma can either continue or stop, depending on how they are received. But one thing is certain: South Africans either love him or hate him. That is not a basis for unity.
