An uneasy waiting game has begun involving the United States, Israel and the Palestinians. After weeks of failed diplomatic efforts to restart peace negotiations, the three parties are in a state of repose, each pondering the next move and preparing for a major event to happen. No one really knows what to expect and it is difficult to see a breakthrough happening any time soon.
There are no winners though; even Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose intransigent position on freezing settlement building in the West Bank was upheld by Washington, cannot claim victory. Relations with President Barack Obama are shaky and their meeting last week in the White House was a subdued one — the official photo of the encounter was released to the press four days later.
Netanyahu’s call on President Mahmoud Abbas to resume talks without preconditions is unlikely to produce a different response from the Palestinian leader. Abbas is in no position to yield and he is right to feel betrayed by the Obama government after having pinned such high hopes on the American president earlier this year. The euphoria has dissipated and the Palestinians are looking hard for the right answer.
They could decide to raise the stakes and tinker with the status quo hoping to elicit some positive reaction. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, who had confessed few days ago that the peace process has reached a dead end, is now talking about the possibility of forging ahead with a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood within the 1967 borders. It’s a dangerous game but the threat could force Israel into making constructive gestures.
To do this Palestinians need the United States and the international community behind them. Without instant recognition from Washington and key European capitals, the move could backfire. Israel has warned that such unilateral action will force it to annex West Bank settlements and close the book on future negotiations.
It is also unlikely that the Obama administration will risk facing the wrath of the powerful Jewish lobby and pro-Israel Congress for the sake of the Palestinians. Besides, Obama has never publicly supported that Palestinian option. He is yet to react to the unsuccessful bid by his secretary of state to relaunch peace talks. Furthermore, he must reaffirm his commitment to continue mediation efforts.
As things stand today the three parties find themselves in an ineradicable position, or so it seems. There is a right-wing government in Israel that has so far refused to budge on settlements and on other pertinent issues. And there is a beleaguered Palestinian president who is threatening to walk away but will remain in control as chairman of the PLO. And there is President Obama who had promised many things but is finding it extremely difficult to deliver on any of his promises.
There have been calls inside the US to pull out and leave the two sides to cool off for a while. No US president has done that since Madrid and even before. It’s a silly suggestion really because of the nature of America’s involvement in the Middle East. Washington cannot afford to turn its back on the conflict even if wanted to. But it could invite others to help.
For almost two decades the US has pretended to play the role of the honest broker, when in fact it was not, while keeping away others from joining in. The international Quartet is a farce and its representative Tony Blair has done nothing to bring the two sides together. The UN has been kept far and so was Europe. US monopoly of the Middle East peace process has been catastrophic to the Palestinians — only Israel benefited from it.
France’s President Nicholas Sarkozy has offered to intervene last week by suggesting he could play host to peace summit involving Arabs and Israelis. But without genuine US backing the Israelis, not to mention most Arabs, will hesitate to go. It is not the lack of a venue that is crippling the chances for peace, but Israel’s refusal to face up to its commitments and end its occupation.
So the waiting game continues and we find ourselves looking at an arena where each player has taken a corner and is refusing to play. And it has been a strange game as well, three teams, one game, and as far as we can see only one goal post.
The Palestinians have always been the weaker side in this twisted formula. Now they face difficult options as they try to end internal rift and reach national reconciliation. It is a good starting point. Their division and infighting have cost them dearly. If they can unite and reconcile, then their next move, whatever it might be, could have a better chance of making it.
— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Jordan.
