LONDON: France starts the Six Nations this weekend as narrow favorite for the title in what looks like the most open tournament for years.
A reasonable argument can be made for any team other than Scotland or Italy to win the competition.
The French are hugely talented, if reliably erratic as ever, Ireland is unbeaten in more than a year, Wales has a team built around a core of British and Irish Lions, and England has almost a fully fit squad for the first time since Martin Johnson took over as team manager.
Italy was the only team Ireland beat by more than nine points in the Six Nations last year in winning its first Grand Slam since 1948, while runner-up England lost to the Irish and Welsh by a combined total of just nine points.
“It will be just as tight this year,” Johnson said. “Anyone who predicts who will win the title is a brave guy.” Those margins suggest the vagaries of the schedule could play a significant role.
Each team has five fixtures, so three sides every year-England, Scotland and Italy this time-only get to play twice at home.
France opens with a tricky trip to Scotland, which will be desperate for victory since it only has two home matches in this year’s tournament.
But coach Marc Lievremont is already looking forward to the last round on March 20, when France hosts England in its third home game seeking to avenge last year’s 34-10 loss at Twickenham.
“England is always the match,” Lievremont said. “And that is more so this season because of the huge slap in the face we got at Twickenham last year. Nothing worked for us that day: it was a disaster.
“Some losses you can make something out of, but not that England one.”
France hosts Ireland next before traveling to Wales and finishing games in Paris against Italy and England.
Defending champion Ireland is next in the bookmakers’ reckoning, with coach Declan Kidney set to rely on the same players that carried the country unbeaten through 2009.
Flyhalf Jonathan Sexton will sit out the opener against Italy on Saturday because of a leg injury, but Kidney can call upon all-time leading scorer Ronan O’Gara to play at No. 10. His only injury concern is over blindside flanker Stephen Ferris, who damaged his knee playing for Ulster in the Heineken Cup against Bath 10 days ago. Leinster’s Kevin McLaughlin will make his debut in his stead, with Kidney hoping to have Ferris back next week for France.
Captain Brian O’Driscoll sounds resigned to losing at some point, but is still confident of taking the title.
“You try and build into a competition,” O’Driscoll said. “You don’t win it in the first couple of weeks. This is all new ground to me but I won’t look at anything differently.
“You don’t retain anything: you give it back and you try to win it again.”
Johnson’s England lineup looks more like the one that scored a tournament-high 16 tries last year rather than the one that performed with such little imagination in November. The return of players, including Riki Flutey and Delon Armitage, from injury means Johnson has felt able to start the extravagantly gifted Mathew Tait at outside center for the first time since the 2007 World Cup final.
“It is good to get them back,” Johnson said. “With Riki and Delon, we picked them all through last year and they took their chance.
“It was a blow to lose Riki in the autumn. He has trained really well over the last 10 days and fitted right back in.”
The main area of concern is in the front row, where injuries to props Andrew Sheridan and Phil Vickery mean Tim Payne and David Wilson will start Saturday against arguably the strongest front row in the tournament.
Still, the talent at Johnson’s disposal means England should be able to at least emulate last year’s tally of three wins.
But Wales could spoil England’s party in the opening match, which marks the 100th anniversary of the first international played at Twickenham.
The Lions front row of Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees and Adam Jones could put England under serious pressure and help deny the possession the likes of Tait need.
“You have really got to hit the ground running in this tournament,” Wales coach Warren Gatland said. “If you start well, it builds momentum.
“If we get off to a good start, and then do well in our next two games at home, then we can have a really good Six Nations.”
Scotland beat Australia 9-8 in November but the Scots stumbled to a 9-6 loss against Argentina the following week, suggesting coach Andy Robinson still has work to do if his team is going to do more than finish above perennial no-hoper Italy.
