The potential for reducing the levels of global greenhouse emissions is greater from increasing efficiency than from renewable energy sources. Even though renewable energy use may double in quantity by 2030, it will still account for only two percent or so of total energy use on the planet. Daniel Nelson, vice president of ExxonMobil Corporation's Washington DC office, said: "One of the most important sources in this world of new oil is conservation."
The third working day of the Jeddah Economic Forum focused on the position of oil in the future energy mix. The panel of speakers agreed that energy consumption would still continue to increase for many years, as developing nations seek improved lifestyles though industrial development. To fuel that development oil, and to a great extent coal, would continue to play major roles.
Mohammad Ali Al-Sabban, senior adviser to the minister for petroleum and mineral resources, said that moves to address climate change would reduce dependency on Middle East oil. Many are developing their own reserves as well to reduce dependency.
"The structural change that says we must do away with oil as soon as possible is very serious for countries such as Saudi Arabia."
He offered the view that this could be turned round into an opportunity for the Kingdom to diversify and vigorously develop a knowledge economy given the youthful demographic profile of the Kingdom and its research centers such as KAUST (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology) that feature alternative energy study. "The challenges facing Saudi Arabia are huge," he said, "but we are sure we can achieve diversity."
Abbas Ali Naqi, secretary general of the Arab Oil Producing Countries, said that by 2030 there would be a 40 percent increase in energy use, 70 percent of which would derive from fossil fuels. Most of the increased demand would come from India, China and Africa. The highest increase in demand, he predicted, would be for coal at 1.9 percent, followed by natural gas at 1.5 percent and oil at 0.9 percent per annum.
"As for renewable energy sources in the same period, they are expected to grow by 58 percent between 2007 and 2030. However, their share in primary energy supply will only grow from less than one percent to around two percent," he said. He added that although the share of oil in the energy mix would decrease from 34 percent in 2007 to 30 percent in 2030, in absolute terms oil use would increase from 85 million barrels a day to 105 million a day in the same period.
Daniel Nelson took another perspective saying that the relationship between technology and oil would develop and change.
He felt that it is extremely important that there should be a focus on the "wise use of a precious resource" and felt that it would be productive to talk bout "the value of avoided greenhouse gases rather than the cost of carbon dioxide" and punishment culture that stemmed from that attitude in the form of taxes.
He concluded with a thought provoking set of numbers for the audience. China and the US emit about the same levels of greenhouse gases. China has four times as many people as the US so their per capita emission is one quarter. "So talking about China coming down to the level of the US is a little like talking about the US coming down to the level of Luxembourg," he quipped.
The Chinese want to prosper, and if they doubled their per capita emission it would only be the same as the US halving theirs; a reduction on one side and an increase on the other.
Such, he said, were the difficulties of political negotiations on climate change.
