With more than two months before the May 10 election, Pulse Asia said it was still to early too predict a winner, with the start of campaigning for 17,500 local positions at the end of March expected to lead to big swings in support.
Opposition lawmaker Aquino had support of 36 percent of voters in the Pulse Asia poll, down 1 percentage point from January, while his nearest rival, billionaire senator Manuel "Manny " Villar, dropped 6 points to 29 percent.
The big mover in the poll, conducted between Feb. 21-25, was Estrada, who was removed from power in 2001, convicted of plunder in 2007 and pardoned weeks later. His support rose to 18 percent in February, up 6 basis points from January.
"This means that Erap has reclaimed the support of the majority of our poor voters, those in D&E economic classes," said Estrada's spokeswoman, Margaux Salcedo, refering to the way pollsters categorize poor voters.
Administration candidate Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, a former defense secretary, improved his rating by 2 points to 7 percent, but remained a distant fourth, the survey of 1,800 people showed.
The survey had an error margin of +/-2 percent.
Of the top candidates, financial markets have most concerns about former film star Estrada, who has widespread support among the poor in the Southeast Asian nation, because of concerns his populist policies could add to an already large deficit.
Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said campaiging for local positions from March 26 could shake up the presidential race.
"Some of these candidates have no local support base that could help campaign for them on the ground, and this may affect their ratings," Holmes said.
More than 50 million Filipinos will elect a president, a vice president, nearly 300 lawmakers in the two houses of Congress and more than 17,500 local positions on May 10.
The 90-day campaign period for national positions started on Feb. 9, while local campaigning begins on March 26.
