The survey also reflects that the mood of business people
has been trending upward over the last seven quarters, after a low in late
2008, widely seen as the height of the financial crisis. While many of the
markets surveyed have shown only a slight increase against Q1, 2010, the upward
trend is more marked when viewed over the past year. From Q1, 2009 to date, the
overall index has risen by over 15 points to 86. The survey is calculated using
the results from Q1, 2007 as a base, with a score of 100.
Although the overall index remains below the heights of 2007
and early 2008, specific indicators show a positive outlook in key operational
areas. Forecast growth for 2010 shows that 43 percent see an increase in
business turnover in the Middle East, 40 percent see an increase in profit, and
33 percent are planning to increase investment.
"The index is an excellent indicator of perceived
confidence around the region, but I believe the most illuminating details lie
in the underlying data," said Simon Vaughan Johnson, regional head of
commercial banking, HSBC Group, MENA.
"For instance, between the October 2008 and January
2009 surveys, the number of people who were pessimistic about meeting their
targets almost doubled to 24 percent. That number has now returned to October
2008 levels of 13 percent, its lowest since the outset of the financial crisis.
This mirrors what our customers are telling our teams around the region -
companies are actively looking for new opportunities, whilst continuing to
rationalize unnecessary spend, and streamline their operations to maximize
revenue potential."
Over half of respondents were optimistic that the next three
months would see increasing revenue for their companies, and 35 percent are
anticipating revenue growth from international trade opportunities.
While the overall mood continues to improve, intra-regional
differences show some marked differences between countries in the region's
corporate sector: Saudi Arabia is most confident, with an index of 97, and UAE
remains the least confident, with an index of 78.4, although the UAE index also
showed one of the highest rises quarter-on-quarter. Sentiment in Kuwait and
Oman has fallen quarter-on-quarter, while sentiment in Bahrain showed the
highest quarterly rise.
"These results show a mood of realistic optimism in the
GCC," added Johnson. "Many companies are doing better than they were
12 months ago, but they do not see another boom on the horizon. This realistic
perspective is predicting steady and sustainable growth, which is good news for
our customers and for the region."
