The logistics of containing the oil spewing into the Gulf of Mexico are mind-boggling even in ideal conditions.
Things become even more complicated with the approach of a tropical storm like Alex, which is pelting Belize, northern Guatemala and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula with heavy rain.
Any system with winds over 46 mph (74 kph) could force BP to abandon efforts to contain the flow for up to two weeks and delay the drilling of two relief wells that are the best hope of stopping it, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said Saturday, shortly after Alex became the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The US Hurricane Center in Miami said Alex weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday. But Alex is expected to gain strength when it crosses over the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf, where the warm waters could fuel it up to hurricane strength. It’s projected to hit Mexico again south of Texas and miss the site of the spill, but officials are watching closely.
“We all know the weather is unpredictable and we could have a sudden, last-minute change,” Allen said.
Emergency plans call for moving workers and equipment five days before gale-force winds are forecast to arrive at the containment operation surrounding the blown-out well. Oil has been gushing since the offshore drilling rig Deepwater Horizon exploded 80 kilometers off the coast of Louisiana on April 20, killing 11 workers. Nearly 39,000 people and more than 6,000 boats are working there, in other parts of the Gulf and on land to skim and corral the oil, protect hundreds of miles of coastline and clean fouled beaches. All of those efforts would have to be suspended if a storm threatened.
At the well, the two systems that have been capturing anywhere from 3.2 million to 4.5 million liters of oil a day would be unhooked, leaving oil to gush freely into the Gulf again.
No one knows exactly how much is flowing, but worst-case estimates indicate it could be as much as 9.5 million liters a day.
Work would also stop on the two relief wells being drilled to take the pressure off the blown-out well, considered the only permanent solution. The first is on target for completion by mid-August, but there could be a significant delay if people and ships come ashore to ride out a storm.
Despite the setback a suspension would represent, “the safety of life is number one priority,” Allen said.
Out in the Gulf, there is also concern about the thousands of feet of protective boom ringing numerous islands and beachfronts. Winds and waves could hurl the material, much of it soaked with oil, deep into marshes and woodlands.
