Myanmar's politically marginalized opposition appears in
total disarray in the run up to the much-criticized Nov. 7 polls, experts say,
playing into the hands of a military regime with no intention to give up its
48-year grip on power.
The leader of the National Democratic Force (NDF) party,
Khin Muang Swe, said late on Thursday he would not run for a parliamentary
seat, while influential Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi on Tuesday
called on members of her now-defunct National League for Democracy (NLD) party
to abstain from voting.
The moves, whether tactical or retaliatory, come as
parties grapple with huge registration fees, strict campaign rules,
intimidation by military agents and barely any time to recruit enough members
to contest the election.
According to rules announced last week, campaign
gatherings and publications will require official approval, criticism of the
military is outlawed and election authorities are empowered to ban acts of
"holding flags and chanting slogans"
"This is just what the regime wants and has planned
all along," said Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese academic based in neighboring
Thailand.
"(Junta leader) Than Shwe's only political strategy
is divide and rule and a weakened opposition is just what he needs."
Most analysts and opposition parties say the military has
formed its own proxy party that is sure to win most seats in a Parliament
packed with army appointees, because of its big budget and sheer size and span
of its representation.
The Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is
comprised of incumbent army-picked ministers recently retired from the military
and critics say it enjoys the backing of the powerful business elite.
Even if unpopular with mainstream Myanmar people, who
voted overwhelmingly in favor of Suu Kyi's NLD in the annulled 1990 poll, an
overall USDP victory appears almost guaranteed against an under-funded
opposition unable to campaign freely or come up with enough money to field
candidates in all constituencies.
Moreover, analysts say, the opposition appears to be
struggling to forge a common stance unlike the last polls.
The Union Democratic Party (UDP) last week said it would
boycott the election if it believed it would not be free and fair. Its leader,
Phyo Min Thein, seen as one of the biggest hopes for democracy, quit on Aug. 15
and said fair polls were impossible.
Thu Wai, chairman of Democratic Party (Myanmar) and a
former political prisoner, disagrees and says a boycott would play into the
hands of the military junta and give it legitimacy.
Election laws were so tight, he added, the junta-backed
USDP did not need to cheat to win.
"These parties are divided over what's the lesser
evil," said Christopher Roberts, a Myanmar expert at the University of
Canberra.
"Do they enter a less-than-perfect process that's
better than nothing or take a principled stance and boycott to push for a
better model of democracy? Either way, it doesn't look like the generals and
their proxies will face much of a challenge."
