The Kwara state governor, who announced his ambitions on
his website (www.abubakarbukolasaraki.com), faces an uphill battle to secure
the support of the northern factions of the People's Democratic Party (PDP)
that would be needed to unseat Jonathan in primaries next month, ahead of the
January presidential poll.
Saraki, 47, faces three northern PDP rivals already in
the race - former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida, former vice president Atiku
Abubakar and Aliyu Gusau, who quit last week as national security adviser in
order to run.
"If there's a fragmented race among northerners,
none of them will win. The north has to decide," said Bismark Rewane of
Lagos-based business consultancy Financial Derivatives.
Gusau's resignation caused Jonathan to cancel a trip at
the last minute to New York for the UN General Assembly, showing how seriously
he takes the various challenges for the PDP ticket.
The PDP nominee has won all three presidential races
since the end of military rule in 1999, making the outcome of past elections a
foregone conclusion and bringing Africa's most populous nation close to being a
one-party state.
But this time the race is more contentious, with no
consensus PDP candidate and no obvious "godfather" - the powerful
background figures who have in the past hand-picked the party's nominee.
Jonathan formally launched his campaign on Saturday with
a rally in the capital, Abuja, attended by more than two thirds of the
country's powerful state governors.
As the incumbent, he holds the strings of power and can
be judged by voters on his performance so far, including helping to cement an
amnesty in the oil-producing Niger Delta and unveiling a blueprint to end the
country's chronic power shortages.
Although he is the front-runner, his bid is opposed by some
in the ruling party because of an unwritten agreement that power should rotate
between the north and south every two terms.
Jonathan inherited the presidency when president Umaru
Yar'Adua, a northerner, died this year during his first term. But he is a
southerner and some PDP officials have said the next leader must be a
northerner.
In his website declaration, Saraki cited his record in
the last 7 years running Kwara state, and appealed to Nigerians' frustration at
the failure of Africa's biggest oil producer to realize its economic potential.
"If there is anyone out there who is tired of how
our country has been blessed with so much but has achieved so little in the
last 50 years, I call on you to join me," he said.
