Iran's agreement
to hold another round of negotiations over its nuclear program with Britain,
China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States was the only tangible
result of talks in Geneva this month. Hopes for a breakthrough are slight.
Iran had
wanted to hold that meeting in Istanbul also, but the European Union, whose
foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton is leading negotiations for the so-called
P5+1, resisted as it saw Turkey's involvement in the talks as a complicating
factor.
Ahmadinejad's
official reason for going to Turkey now is for a meeting that also includes
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian states, but he will also have
one-to-one talks with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
"I
assume the nuclear talks Turkey will host in January between Iran and the
powers will be part of the agenda, but will not be the only topic on the
agenda," said Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal.
After
years of successfully exploiting the divisions within UN Security Council to
side-step hard-hitting sanctions, Iran was subjected to a series of UN, US and
EU injunctions from June directed at its important energy sector.
While
Iran has insisted sanctions are having no effect, political analysts say the
unexpected severity of the measures is an important factor in bringing Tehran
back to talks.
The big
powers want Iran to halt its uranium enrichment program, which they suspect is
a cover for an effort to build a nuclear arsenal. Iran says it has the right to
enrich uranium for civilian use and does not want atomic weapons.
Turkey,
together with Brazil, brokered a resolution to try to avert sanctions in May.
Iran first agreed to the deal, but it was too late to stave off sanctions.
Feeling
isolated, Iran is once more looking to its increasingly economically powerful
and diplomatically assertive western neighbor to help relieve the pressure.
"Despite
all of Iran's bluster and pretence of being so confident, ... the Iranians are
suffering from a sense of loneliness and a significant distrust of the other
states in the P5+1 which makes it extremely difficult to agree to anything,"
said Trita Parsi, a US-based Iran expert.
Professor
Scott Lucas, academic and editor of the online journal EA WorldView, said:
"From Iran's standpoint, they do see Turkey as a broker and that will be
Ahmadinejad's public stance, to include the Turks in the talks."
Turkey's
governing AK Party has reached out to Iran, Syria and the Palestinian movement
Hamas, and stood up to US ally Israel, enhancing Erdogan's popularity in the
Middle East.
Ankara's
policy of having "zero problems with neighbors" has alarmed some in
the United States who would like to see its NATO ally lining up squarely behind
its plan of isolating the Islamic Republic, but it has also given Turkey, in
Iran's eyes, the credibility to act a mediator in the nuclear dispute.
Ahmadinejad's
visit also comes at a time when Iran's foreign policy, according to some
analysts, is in some disarray. He unceremoniously sacked his foreign minister
last week, replacing him with a close ally, nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi.
At least
part of the reason for the change was that the outgoing minister, Manouchehr
Mottaki, had "harshly criticized the president for setting up a parallel
diplomatic apparatus," said Khabaronline, a website close to the
government.
Ahmadinejad
had appointed a series of envoys, sending them on diplomatic missions,
independent of the Foreign Ministry.
To
complicate matters further, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent his own
foreign policy adviser to Turkey last week to meet Erdogan.
The
newspaper Kayhan, controlled by Khamenei, criticized the manner in which the
president sacked Mottaki, giving rise to some analysts seeing a possible
division between the two. It was not clear if Ali Akbar Velayati's visit to
Turkey was merely ceremonial or yet another strand to Iran's foreign policy.
Salehi
spoke of Turkey's growing importance at his inaugural address on taking up his
new job. It is possible Iran will formally ask Turkey to take on the role of
mediator with the P5+1, or perhaps join the already unwieldy group.
Turkey,
for its part, says it is willing to help.
"Turkey
is hosting the meeting. If we are asked to do anything else we will do our
best," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Unal.
"I
think it sees negotiating with Turkey as far preferable to negotiating with the
Americans or the West," David Hartwell, IHS Jane's North Africa and Middle
East analyst.
Iran
might see Turkey's increasing independent foreign policy as way to drive a
wedge between Ankara and Washington, he said.
"I
think that may be slightly an idealistic hope on the part of the Iranians. The
Turks ... have no desire, I think, to be seen to be used by the Iranians."
