The UAE's top advisory council passed a new public debt
law last month, paving the way for the Gulf Arab country's first debt issues at
the federal level.
Asked when he expected to issue new bonds, Minister of
State for Financial Affairs Obaid Humaid Al-Tayer told reporters on the sidelines
of a parliamentary meeting: "Either the end of this year or the first part
of next year."
He did not give details, saying he hoped the public debt
bill would be approved by the UAE president this year.
The legislation, which needs presidential approval to
become law, limits UAE government debt to 25 percent of the country's gross
domestic product, or 200 billion dirhams ($54.5 billion).
The bill also provides a legal framework for creating a
government bond market in the UAE, made up of seven emirates, with public debt
instruments traded on one or more of the country's three financial markets.
The UAE has so far seen sovereign bonds issued only by
individual emirates such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and analysts have said federal
issues would help revive the local currency debt market.
The global credit crunch slammed the brakes on an oil-
and real estate-led boom in the UAE, sending the world's third largest oil
exporter in 2009 into its first economic downturn since 1993. Debt problems in
property-focused Dubai slowed recovery last year.
Al-Tayer said last month the country will look at a range
of options, including using existing reserves or returns from government
investments to finance a budget deficit of around 3 billion dirhams ($816.8
million) for 2011 and issue bonds only when necessary to cover the gap.
Meanwhile, UAE banks are flush with cash again this year,
in contrast to 2010, but credit in the world's third largest oil exporter is
not seen picking up strongly as lenders stay cautious following Dubai's debt
woes.
New money was hard to come by after Dubai's $25 billion
debt crisis hit the second largest Arab economy over a year ago. But high
deposit rates and an improved mood after a September Dubai World restructuring
deal have drawn in fresh funds.
"The interbank market is very liquid. All the banks
are flooded with liquidity whether it is foreign or local customer
deposits," a treasurer at an Abu Dhabi-based bank said.
The volume of bank deposits in the OPEC member's economy
surpassed loans in October last year, for the first time since at least
September 2009, central bank data showed.
Higher deposits, up 4.7 percent from a year ago in
November, helped UAE interbank offered rates edge down since October and both
the central bank and traders expected a further drop.
The benchmark three-month rate now holds at 2.14 percent,
near its lowest levels since February 2010 but still far above the Saudi
benchmark at 0.75 percent. Traders said activity was thin as banks had enough
funds.
"You now face a situation where banks have
sufficient cash to lend and corporates now have more profitable projects in
which to utilize that cash," said Mark Watts, head of fixed income at
National Bank of Abu Dhabi Asset Management Group. "That is a very good
driver for a return to normal markets."
But reluctance of UAE banks to make new company loans,
however, is not expected to disappear quickly due to exposure to Dubai and its
state-linked firms, which have some $30 billion of bonds and loans to repay
over the next two years.
"The continuing story is that banks are not able to
take more risks because of whatever happened," a Dubai-based trader said.
"The UAE story is a bit subdued at the moment."
Private sector lending had been falling for 11 months to
October, unlike elsewhere in the Gulf, a stark contrast to over 20 percent
annual gains seen at the beginning of 2009, although an appetite to borrow has
increased.
As a result, the UAE economy is seen lagging behind
fellow crude-producing nations with growth forecast of 3.6 percent for 2011,
according to a Reuters poll.
"We expect the weak bank credit growth environment
to continue in 2011," said Monica Malik, chief economist at EFG-Hermes in
Dubai. "Banks will likely continue to suffer from the restructuring process."
Conglomerate Dubai Holding's main unit had to postpone
its loan repayment three times before reaching a deal with creditors last
month. Another unit missed two payments on separate loans, sources said in
November.
