And thus when Olivier Appert, the chairman and the CEO of IFP Energies nouvelles, came over to Riyadh and delivered a talk at the International Energy Forum Secretariat, the subject for his presentation was nothing else but “future technologies in transportation sector and (its) impact on oil demand.”
And indeed Appert’s portfolio qualified him for this presentation, for he heads an organization that is a world-class public-sector research and training center, developing the technologies and materials of the future on a mission to develop efficient, economical, clean and sustainable technologies in the fields of energy, transport and the environment.
IFP has a number of set strategic priorities. In order to tackle the greenhouse effect and alleviate the transport sector’s reliance on oil, IFP Energies nouvelles New Energy works on the production of biofuels, chemical intermediates and energy via the transformation of biomass. It also designs the technological solutions required to harness marine resources. The organization also works on CO2 capture, transport and geological storage processes to help the world combat global warming. It also works on technologies aimed at optimizing industry’s use of water. And IFP also designs and perfects technological solutions aimed at further reducing fuel consumption and minimizing the environmental impact of vehicles. It also works on the development of low CO2-emitting engines for the aviation industry.
IFP also has to its credit work on eco-efficient processes and products with a view to transforming a variety of fossil resources (technological oils, coal, and gas) into fuels and chemical intermediates. And then in order to further push back further the current boundaries of oil and gas exploration and production technologies, IFP continues to strive to perfect advanced simulation tools, helping to gain insight into the underground environment of the wells and to develop environment friendly exploration technologies.
And the presentation from Appert focused on the ongoing transition in the global energy mix. He emphasized — the world is changing, and rather rapidly. Indeed with transportation consuming almost 60-70 percent of the total global crude requirement, the current focus is on developing technologies in the sector that could help alleviate the dependence of the world on crude. For indeed, if alternatives could be used in transportation and at affordable price levels, many geopolitical problems related to crude could also be taken care of.
Pointing to the growing crude demand in the transportation sector and the impact of the rapid growth in the number of vehicles in the developing and the “transition” countries, Appert projects the world may need an additional 15.7mbpd of oil and 5mbpd of substitutes by 2035. In the meantime, carbon dioxide emission could also go up by 33 percent, posing a major environmental challenge to the world. This needs to be changed.
Referring to the new technological developments, and indeed Appert is privy to many such developments in pipeline too, he pointed out to the new standards to be adopted in US by 2016 when the average vehicle fuel economy required would be 35.5 miles per gallon (6.5 liters/100 KM). And indeed this could have significant impact on global consumption levels, as the US is the world’s largest consumer — often referred to as the gas guzzler of the world.
Mentioning of the new conservation technologies, he referred to the new combustion processes emerging, that could provide staggering boost to efficiency. This could contribute in increasing efficiency of gasoline engines by 20 -30 percent and of the diesel fueled engines by 10-15 percent.
In the meantime, emphasis also seems to be going up on dedicated engines (NGV, DME, Hydrogen), electric vehicle (battery/fuel cells) and hybrid vehicles (thermal/electric). Comparing hybrid to gasoline, Appert felt the transition to hybrid could help save 35 percent on average and hybrid vehicle when compared to diesel fuelled car, the saving could still be around 20 percent. And then he pointed out that a 20-50 percent improvement in efficiency could also be obtained through non engine developments, (aerodynamics, rolling resistance, energy management, weight reduction) and improvements in engine. Efficiency is the name of the new game.
Similarly in the aviation sector too, with emission a major concern; steps seem to be in making that could stabilize carbon emissions from 2020 and halving it by 2050 as compared to 2005 levels.
All this could significantly impact the global fuel consumption. And the impact when totalled, a potential reduction of 14 million bpd could be anticipated by 2035, the IFP CEO underlined. However, one could not take out the uncertainty that continues to plague the world in general and the energy sector in particular. And indeed despite all the projections, one could easily feel that uncertainties may impact the ultimate outcome in more than one ways, Appert emphasized. And indeed one could not disagree with him on this count too.
And after the talk I had the opportunity of enjoying a cup of coffee with good, old friend and industry veteran, Desmond P. Carr, the board chairman and the CEO of ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia Inc. And there, while discussing the changing global energy mix at his office that provides a beautiful, panoramic view of the city of Riyadh, he pulled out the ExxonMobil Outlook for Energy — A view to 2030.
And the report almost opens with a wonderful pictorial — depicting the changes in the US energy mix over the last 160 years. The graph beautifully presented the ongoing transition in the energy mix over the last a century and a half. From basically wood as the prime source in the US energy mix then in 1850, to the gradual transition to coal playing the lead role until 1910, when finally oil and gas took over from coal as the principal source. Who knows, what is next — then.
Transition is the name of the game. There is nothing scary to it. It has been a recurring feature and will continue in the future too, emphasized Carr, topping it up with a comment, and indeed without offending, that people involved with the industry, including this writer, need to read in depth and look around for the available data. Carr, you had a point and it has been taken well — without being offended — rest assured.
