In Britain, electric vehicle penetration is expected to reach around 60 percent of new cars and vans by 2030, said the UK’s Committee on Climate change in its Renewable Energy Review.
At the same time, power distributors will also have to overhaul and expand grids to prepare for an increasing share of volatile renewable power in the generation mix.
Both changes together will require such profound adaptations that they amount to a once-a-generation event, said Marc De Witte, vice president for research and innovation for French energy company GDF Suez.
“If you have 50 percent or more renewable in the grid and also large amounts of electric cars to supply, then the grid will need smart metering and we will have to prepare their roll-out soon,” he said.
France will feel less of a strain because it already produces around 80 percent of its power from low-carbon nuclear reactors.
Analysts say an electric car consumes about as much power per year as an average European household. The rapid increase in demand will force utilities to offer so-called smart metering solutions to cope, according to members of the advisory board of NG Utilities Europe, a group of utilities and consultants who assess challenges to power distribution.
“Most people will charge their cars when they get home from work, and that is still during peak demand hours and will put increasing pressure on the grid,” Jens Jakobsson, vice president for distribution at Danish utility Dong said.
Some grids may struggle to supply enough power if drivers plug in millions of electric cars at about the same time, particularly during peak demand between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. on work days.
“It would be best if a smart metering option could automatically control when the electric car is being charged, preferably during low-demand, off-peak hours,” Jakobsson added.
Also over the next decade, power distributors will have to find ways to deal with a rising share of renewable supply.
Wind and sunshine cannot be controlled, forcing utilities to deal with unwanted supply during low-demand hours and insufficient supply during peak-demand times.
Because there is no efficient system for storing electricity, companies are now working on storage of hot and cold air for heating and cooling.
“We will need to find effective ways to store heat and cold in order to de-couple electricity generation from heating demand,” De Witte said.
“If we manage this, our systems will be a lot more balanced and able to handle fluctuating amounts of renewable power generation,” he added.
Some European governments are also looking at a smart distribution option that would enable big retail users to take the risk of fluctuating wholesale spot prices.
Sophisticated customers could reduce their power bills by adjusting usage to the ups and down of the wholesale market and by selling back any excess energy they generate.
“Although we would prefer a full scale roll-out of smart meters ... such a solution would probably cover up to 90 percent of consumption in terms of total electricity use,” Simone Chiappi, vice president for smart metering at German utility E.ON said.
On top of the huge investments needed for all these changes, utilities at the same time are having to deal with high fossil fuel costs and stagnating power prices.
Many banks see Europe’s power sector as an unattractive market for investors.
It may not be easy, therefore, for these companies to attract debt or equity financing for the billions of euros of investment they need to make a once-in-a-generation overhaul.
