Libya sees oil flows at 1.35m bpd by late 2012

Author: 
EMMA FARGE | REUTERS
Publication Date: 
Mon, 2011-11-14 21:52

The document, sent to NOC clients to advise them of supply projections, adds to mounting evidence that the OPEC member's oil is returning to the international market sooner than many analysts had expected. 
It showed that 813,000 bpd was expected to be onstream by next month, with the highest output coming from the Sarir and Amna grades. Two oil traders confirmed they had received the NOC document. 
Before the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi began in February, Libya was producing around 1.6 million bpd, of which 1.3 million bpd was exported before fighting caused flows to dry up. 
A large portion of current production is going to domestic refineries, which together have the capacity to process nearly a quarter of total output. 
The latest data is more conservative than other official Libyan estimates, but these NOC numbers may be more authoritative, given that they were sent directly to clients ahead of key negotiations on 2012 supply contracts. 
"I think this is also pretty optimistic," said an oil trader who received the document. 
The NOC chairman told reporters on Sunday that full pre-war output was possible by the end of 2012.
The west's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, said last week that Libyan oil is returning faster than expected but that production was likely to reach only 1.17 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2012.  
The loss of Libya's prized easy-to-refine oil helped push oil prices to over $125 a barrel in February, and the still limited volumes on the international market have given support to Brent. The front month contract was trading down $1.11 at $113.05 a barrel by 1433 GMT.  
The document also showed that 10 of 11 key grades would be producing by next month, with the Es Sider grade in the Sirte Basin due to come onstream in the first quarter of 2012.

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