The final weeks of 2021 brought further evidence that our world is changing and is in desperate need of a new design to ensure peace and prosperity.

Conventional low-intensity conflicts simmering in various parts of the world, including Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen and Ukraine, are unlikely to escalate, despite warnings that the West will do all it can to protect Ukraine, for example.

However, when it comes to the weaponization of the technological and digital realms, the world appears to be entering a new arms race. This escalation is taking place amid an increasingly apparent confrontation between the West on one side and Russia and China on the other.

The end of last year saw another Russian test firing of its new hypersonic cruise missile, hailed by the country’s leader, Vladimir Putin, as a weapon that ushers in a new generation of unrivaled arms systems.

While the US is unlikely to be fazed by this test, its expected nuclear arms review — due this month — may well be affected by the news that China has been building large numbers of underground silos for nuclear missiles with the intention of quadrupling its nuclear stockpile by 2030.

In the past decade, hacking and social media campaigns by state and nonstate actors have revealed the potency of such modern tools. This is apparently just the tip of the iceberg, as armies everywhere pour money into digital technology, artificial intelligence, the cyber realm and space.

According to many experts, “future warfare” is already factored into the strategic calculations of world powers.

Changes in the nature of warfare are not limited to drones and hypersonic weapons, but also include cyberoperations for disruption or espionage purposes

Mohamed Chebaro

In the past, so-called symmetric warfare followed a general strategy of knocking out enemy radar and air defenses, and establishing air supremacy for ground troops to act. Today, gaining supremacy starts by “blinding” the enemy, neutralizing its capacity to communicate.

Last November, Russia carried out a missile test in space aimed at destroying one of its own satellites, with the clear aim of practicing a first strike on enemy communications infrastructure. China has set up a new agency, the Strategic Support Force, which is designed to develop electronic, cyber and space warfare capabilities. The US and its allies have been investing heavily in developing a space capacity capable of keeping the Chinese, Russians and others in check.

Changes in the nature of warfare are not limited to drones and hypersonic weapons, but also include cyberoperations for disruption or espionage purposes. These have become common in low-intensity conflicts and include attacks such as those targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities in recent years, misinformation on social media aimed at influencing elections and undermining democratic and liberal values in Western societies, and the theft of sensitive data.

The same tools can be deployed in cases of open conflict, reducing the enemy’s capacity to respond. Societies everywhere will not be immune, since electronic warfare will threaten communication and disrupt supply chains, leading to shortages of essential goods.

This scenario resembles the script of a doomsday Hollywood film, which in a sense is reassuring, since one hopes that states have been aware of these threats for years and have developed tools and weapons to neutralize them.

However, that is not the point. The changing nature of warfare highlights the need to develop the tools of diplomacy and multilateralism that have been in place for more than 70 years, but are increasingly under strain amid the continuing East-West posturing.

The pledge this week by the US, Russia, China, the UK and France to avoid nuclear conflict and prevent the spread of atomic weapons is a rare, yet much-needed, affirmation of the ability of powerful countries to protect the world. The acknowledgement by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council that “a nuclear war can never be won” is a step in the right direction. Such a conflict cannot be won and should never be fought.

  • Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist, media consultant and trainer with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.