Regardless of the lenses through which people worldwide choose to view Iran’s revolution on its 45th anniversary, the majority tend to see that the regime that came to power in 1979, brandishing an anti-Western and anti-status quo sectarian agenda, especially in the Arab world, has matured. And that maturity is paying dividends for the regime in Tehran both regionally and internationally, despite a mixed and complex landscape of disapproval at the domestic level.

Four and a half decades since the inception of the Islamic Republic, those who ousted the pro-American shah could never have dreamed they would have the ability to survive and later expand their theocratic revolution, presenting themselves as a difficult player to circumvent in world power calculations. Decades-long efforts to tailor a security and stability apparatus in the key region of the Middle East — like finding a settlement to the 75-year-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict, securing the Gulf region’s oil supplies to the world and lately the adversities impacting Red Sea shipping lanes — offer a clear indication of how Iran, by design or luck or both, has the capability to frustrate, spoil and disrupt the regional order and beyond. These low-maintenance and cost-effective actions have yielded high returns for Tehran.

Iran has, through decades of championing the slogans of “death to America” and “death to Israel,” managed to conceive and nurture proxy groups in several Arab countries. These nonstate militias have become the “tentacles” of Tehran’s exported Shiite teaching-fueled ideological revolution. Late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini launched this project late in the 1970s with the aim of Iran becoming, through these groupings, a spoiler that is capable of projecting its power far beyond its borders. It can today even influence the global balance of power between the key players: the US and wider West on the one side and Russia, China and an increasing number of ascending states from the Global South on the other.

Iran, by design or luck or both, has the capability to frustrate, spoil and disrupt the regional order and beyond

Mohamed Chebaro

In the celebrations held in Tehran on Sunday to mark the occasion, one could not fail to see an emboldened Iran through what was said by President Ebrahim Raisi, who called for Israel to be ejected from the UN. The show of strength was very apparent during an exhibition in Azadi (Freedom) Square, which showed off Iranian military hardware like its Shahed drones, Qiam ballistic missiles and Simorgh satellite launchers, some of which have been active in theaters of conflict such as Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, south Lebanon and the Red Sea.

Since the Islamic Republic’s inception, Iran has lived under various sanctions regimes and has managed not only to survive, but also to turn the tables against its numerous detractors and develop a nuclear program. It claimed this was for peaceful purposes, but fooled no one. This is in addition to an increasingly successful weapons development project that has provided advanced weapons and technical know-how to its proxies.

Above all, Iran has managed to ideologically weaponize sections of the Shiite community worldwide and make it a spearhead for advancing Iranian interests and goals. It is through this community that Iran can claim to have succeeded in exporting its revolution, as its leadership repeatedly boasts about Tehran’s control of four Arab capitals, namely Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and Sana’a. This has been rendered even clearer since the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and the subsequent war of reprisals launched by Tel Aviv, with fires being lit by pro-Iranian proxies in various parts of the region under the pretense of supporting Hamas.

Tehran has, in recent weeks, demonstrated more boldness and ability — through its control of the so-called Axis of Resistance and its ability to mobilize on various fronts simultaneously — to put pressure on the forces that are bent on working to maintain law and order, at least for the continued flow of trade and commodities across the world. All that while positioning itself directly or indirectly to work to undermine the US and Western influence and demonstrate the limits and even the erosion of US power in the Red Sea region.

Fires are being lit by pro-Iranian proxies in various parts of the region under the pretense of supporting Hamas

Mohamed Chebaro

After 45 years, one must ask if Iranian interests are actually served by the ideological, religious drive of its leadership on the domestic, regional and international levels. Many believe that Iran has long been guided by a determination to protect its regime and prevent domestic or foreign forces from overthrowing it. And that has been achieved despite the precarious domestic situation in Iran, as seen with the recurring demonstrations, uprisings and crackdowns. The last of these began in September 2022, when the Woman, Life, Freedom movement exploded. The regime is still adjusting to these protests, with a zero tolerance posture being adopted against all forms of association, activism and even small gatherings.

Meanwhile, the semblance of Iran’s elections being free and fair have been undermined in recent years. The regime is facing more trouble in ensuring wider participation, while its grip on manufacturing the candidate lists through its stringent vetting system recently saw ex-President Hassan Rouhani deemed unfit to run in the forthcoming Assembly of Experts elections.

In all my years as a journalist and after a number of visits to Iran, I have often tired of answering the question of what Iran’s interests are if seen through the prisms of its behavior, policies and alliances. For the last 45 years, Iran has never veered from the foundations that were set for the regime, primarily to deploy its religious doctrine as a tool to manage society and to use its many revolutionary arms to export the revolution and change the nature and compass of the countries in the region. All that while using its championing of the cause of liberating Palestine and defeating Israel as a rallying tool to win the support of the masses across the Muslim world.

Years of investment and resolve have clearly paid dividends for the regime in Tehran. But did Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his disciples in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the expeditionary Quds Force mature enough to stop lighting fires or to help extinguish them to make way for stability and prosperity? It is unlikely that even another 45 years would teach the revolutionaries to vie for peace and prosperity. After all, a leopard never changes its spots.

  • Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.