Growing up in Lebanon, we were taught that the country’s economy was a miracle and its political affairs were precarious.
Many used to describe Lebanon as “the Switzerland of the East,” both for the beauty of the landscape and its economic model based on banking secrecy that attracted investors.
Today, all of the above hangs in the balance, unless Lebanon’s sectarian parties can find a domestic formula for political coexistence. This should be coupled with the revival of Lebanese neutrality to preserve what was once a model country for social, religious and ethnic coexistence in the volatile Middle Eastern region.
Lebanon historically has suffered from domestic and regional tensions but was kept afloat in defiance of all political and economic wisdom. This time, however, with threats gathering like a storm, things might turn out differently.
On top of fears of a looming economic crisis, the country remains without a government four months after an election that has weakened most parties apart from Hezbollah, the Shiite militia that has been doing Iran’s bidding in the region, alienating Lebanon’s key traditional Gulf allies.
Saad Al-Hariri’s efforts to form a new government have hit a wall following demands for ministerial posts by parties allied to Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria that feel empowered by the defeat of the revolution and believe they deserve a seat in the cabinet.
The speedy formation of a government could send a clear message to the market that the country is ready for business, regional cooperation and investment. But the more difficult job will be to persuade Gulf countries, whose contributions to Lebanon have been the most substantial over the years. To restore their confidence, the government needs to tackle the question of the hybrid role the Hezbollah militia play in the country and the region.
The issues that have been pushing Lebanon to the brink economically go well beyond the impact of Syrian refugees on the country, the slump in the housing market, a drop in tourism, low GDP, indebtedness and a struggling banking sector. Another factor is the political choices of the parties vying for control.
A lucky formula created by Lebanon’s founders put the country on the map — a miracle that delivered economic, social and political viability. Now the country needs another miracle to make it that way once more.
Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist broadcaster with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defence, current affairs and diplomacy.
