Publics’ complicated view of governments’ COVID-19 response

The publics of several wealthy countries feel that their governments have handled the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic well, according to new polling data from the Pew Research Center. Meanwhile, people in the three countries with the most COVID-19 cases either have a positive view of their leaders or are deeply divided.

The Pew poll looked at 14 wealthy countries and found that a median of 73 percent of people in these countries believe that their country has handled the pandemic well. In particular, 95 percent of people in Denmark, 94 percent in Australia, 88 percent in Germany and Canada, and 86 percent in South Korea have a positive view of the pandemic response. This is unsurprising, as these countries have contained the virus much better than many other countries. Several other nations were below the median but still had a majority of the population with a positive view, such as Sweden with 71 percent, France with 59 percent and Japan with 55 percent. These countries’ responses to the pandemic have been more complicated.

The US and the UK stand out among the 14 countries in the Pew poll as the only ones where a majority of people said their country had handled the pandemic poorly. Among Americans, 55 percent had a negative view, while 47 percent had a positive view. In the UK, 54 percent had a negative view, while 46 percent felt positively. These numbers likely reflect the reality that both countries have struggled to contain the virus and have a lack of consensus on how to respond.

In the US, the pandemic has added to an already high level of political and social polarization. Political identity has had a significant impact on people’s views of wearing masks, social distancing, the closing of schools, and more. A FiveThirtyEight poll tracker this week reported that 57 percent of Americans disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic. However, 81 percent of Republicans approved of the president’s response, compared to 34 percent of independents and only 8 percent of Democrats.

While the US polarization is particularly extreme, public views of responses to the pandemic are also divided in several other countries. The Pew poll found that 55 percent of Britons who are aligned with the political right felt that the Conservative government had done well, while only 26 percent of those on the left agreed. To a lesser extent, political partisanship in countries such as Spain, Italy and Sweden has also had an effect on views of the governments’ pandemic management.

The Pew poll also found that a median of 48 percent of respondents across the 14 countries believed that divisions in their countries have grown since the pandemic started, compared to 46 percent who believed their countries had become more unified. While majorities in several countries — including Italy, France, Germany, and Spain — believe that their country has become more divided, the US stood out, with 77 percent of Americans perceiving their country as more divided than before the pandemic.

The three countries with the highest total COVID-19 cases and deaths are the US, India and Brazil. Those numbers partly reflect their populations — India has the second-largest population in the world, while the US is third and Brazil is sixth. However, even accounting for population, these countries and their economies have been hit hard by the pandemic. Despite this, the reality of the publics’ views of their leaders is complicated.

Americans and Brazilians’ views of how Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, respectively, have responded to the pandemic are deeply divided, reflecting political divisions that predate the pandemic. Republicans tend to approve of Trump while Democrats disapprove. Brazilians are also divided about Bolsonaro. An August poll from Datafolha found that 47 percent of Brazilians say Bolsonaro bears no blame for the scale of Brazil’s outbreak, even though he has repeatedly downplayed the virus’ impacts and stymied other political leaders’ efforts to contain it. Another 41 percent of Brazilians said he bears some responsibility, while 11 percent primarily blame him. The same pollster found that Bolsonaro’s approval rating in August was 37 percent, up from 32 percent in June.

India has suffered particularly badly, with significant COVID-19 infection rates and a devastating impact on the economy. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains popular. A poll published in India Today in August found that 77 percent of Indians say Modi is doing a good or outstanding job.

One reason for Modi’s popularity despite a historic economic and health crisis — and why support for Trump and Bolsonaro also remains so strong among their supporters — is that populism is particularly attractive in troubled times. Modi appeals to Hindu nationalism, which makes him popular among India’s Hindu majority, even though he is far less popular among religious minorities. Bolsonaro recast himself as the defender of the poor after the government approved a significant aid package. Trump promises Americans that only he can make things better and ensure the American dream. These are attractive promises and ideas at a time when people feel confused and frightened.

In some countries, the public’s view of a government’s pandemic response is aligned with the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths and the economic impact. In other countries, the public’s perceptions reflect political identities more than pandemic realities. As the pandemic evolves, these realities are likely to continue shaping how leaders approach the issue.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 16 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch