The challenges of addressing US gun violence

In the aftermath of multiple mass shootings in the US, proponents of measures to reduce gun violence are struggling to make progress, despite a notable effort in the Senate to pass some form of legislation on the issue.

The US has an unusually high rate of gun violence, especially among its peers. Data based on gun deaths per 100,000 people shows that it ranks 32nd in the world for deaths from gun violence, according to research from the University of Washington and reported by NPR. Most of the countries with higher rates are in Central America and the Caribbean or other less developed areas. The US rate is very unusual among politically stable, economically developed countries. A comparison with the Middle East is particularly striking; when deaths from armed conflict, accidents and self-harm are factored out, the US exceeds all Middle Eastern countries except Iraq in rates of violent gun deaths.

The toll on Americans includes suicide by gun, deaths from accidental shootings and homicide by gun. Mass shootings draw the most attention. Definitions of mass shootings vary, but the FBI reported 40 “active shooter incidents” (someone trying to kill people in a populated area) in 2020. A different definition of a mass shooting — where four or more people, excluding the shooter, are injured or killed — suggests far higher numbers; the Gun Violence Archive recorded 250 mass shootings in the country by early June. While mass shootings are a real and growing problem, they represent a small portion of gun deaths. Suicides alone account for more than half of US gun deaths. Overall, gun deaths have increased substantially in recent years.

Multiple factors contribute to the unusually high rate of gun deaths and violence in the US. Much of the difficulty in developing policy to address the problem stems from disagreements among Americans over the causes of gun violence. However, easy access to a wide range of firearms is clearly one factor. According to the Small Arms Survey, the country has a ratio of 120.5 firearms per 100 residents — far more than any other country in the world. Yemen ranks second, with 52.8 firearms per 100 residents.

Addressing gun violence is a very complicated issue in the US. While polling finds that slightly more than half of Americans want more restrictions on guns, partisan divides run deep. Many Democrats want new regulations to improve public safety, but many Republicans see extensive rights to gun ownership as a fundamental American value. The second amendment to the US Constitution states: “A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.” Many Republicans believe that this text guarantees broadly defined rights to own guns, while many Democrats interpret the amendment very differently.

Differing ideas about how to balance individual rights and community interests and questions of identity further complicate discussion about gun rights and gun violence.

Organizations that advocate for gun rights have a long history of influence in US politics. In more recent years, organizations that advocate for measures to reduce gun violence have grown and attracted new constituencies. Pressure from this second group and the reality of increasing violence has renewed efforts in Congress to develop legislation to help reduce gun violence.

In recent weeks, a bipartisan group of senators crafted a framework for legislation. It includes expanding background check information for people under 21 years old who want to buy a gun and increasing federal funding for mental health and school security programs. While such measures appear very minimal to many Americans, some Republicans vehemently portrayed even these small steps as eroding rights to gun ownership.

So far, negotiations appear to have broken down over issues such as how to define a domestic abuser, which affects eligibility to purchase a gun, and how to disperse federal funds to encourage state programs to counter gun violence. A deal could potentially proceed, but Congress is scheduled to recess on July 4 and such efforts often lose momentum when there are delays.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is expected to soon issue a ruling in a case regarding a New York state law restricting the right to carry concealed firearms. With a firm conservative majority, the court is likely to rule against New York. If so, the ruling would place several other states’ similar laws at risk and potentially make it harder for states to restrict guns more widely.

Efforts to combat gun violence are more likely to experience success at the state level, especially in states with Democratic-led governments. In recent years, many states have passed measures designed to reduce gun violence, particularly following high-profile mass shootings. However, the increasing political polarization in the country shapes outcomes at the state level. While many Democratic-controlled state legislatures have passed measures to regulate guns and address violence, many Republican-controlled state legislatures have passed measures that increase easy access to firearms.

Going forward, the country is likely to see an increasing gap between “blue” states with regulations on guns and “red” states that allow easy access. However, in the country’s federal system, the Supreme Court and Congress also affect laws across the country. Firearms can travel across state borders, potentially eroding blue states’ efforts to restrict them. The movement to reduce gun violence is growing and has had important state-level successes, but the gun rights movement maintains the upper hand.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. Twitter: @KBAresearch