Will Iran change because of the replacement of the ultra-conservative Ahmadinejad by the moderate conservative Hassan Rowhani? That remains a million dollar question.
Surely, we should not judge the president-elect Rowhani on the mandate alone. He may have the opportunity to achieve what we have longed for, ending the longest and most dangerous tense period that the region has gone through. He may be just a symbol with no real powers, such as former President Mohammad Khatami, who, despite his popularity, was humiliated by the supreme leader, forced to close down newspapers loyal to him, and was not allowed to release detainees from his camp. All that he was allowed was the participation of a wrestling team in the United States!
On a more positive side, Saudis know the new president well, following his involvement in affairs involving Riyadh. In the mid-nineties, he had signed a security agreement with the late Interior Minister Prince Naif. Rowhani, then head of intelligence signed the agreement, whereby the government of Iran had vowed not to interfere in the internal affairs of the Gulf states, and delivered some Saudis defendants wanted in terrorism cases and halted its support for hostile groups abroad. Also, Riyadh communicated good vibes to Tehran to improve relations and later re-opened embassies.
It was all important then that when Rowhani vowed to improve relations with Saudi Arabia at the peak of his campaign, he knew that the majority of the Iranian people are already looking forward to a stable relationship with the Arab world, and want to stop the state of hostility and war by proxy, which was the blue print for most of the Ahmadinejad years. In an interview with Asharq Alawsat newspaper, Rowhani said: “With regard to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we are determined to convert the hostility between the two countries, which unfortunately worsened in the recent period, into mutual respect and cooperation.” Good talk from the old friend of the Saudis, and who comes into the office of the presidency during the most dangerous time in Iran’s relationship with the region and the world.
This is our optimistic outlook. As for our worries and concerns, they are moving in the opposite directions. The history of Iran’s relationship with Saudi Arabia is mostly aggressive, since the confrontations in Makkah in the eighties, and the bombing of Alkhobar in the nineties, attempts to change the regime in Bahrain two years ago, the conspiracy to assassinate Ambassador Adel Al-Jubeir in Washington, the spy cells this year, arming Yemeni rebels against Saudi Arabia and a large amount of military activities in neighboring countries.
We realize that Rowhani himself will not be able to make a new Iran, for the country is governed by a powerful duo of supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards. We hope that the new president has the ability to change the mindset of the leadership of Iran toward avoiding an almost inevitable clash, and move on to regional cooperation and to stop the sectarian war between the two sides.
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