I write this week from London, where Middle East specialists follow closely the unfolding events in Yemen. They are trying to comprehend the evolution of the military campaign in Yemen and its repercussions in other hot spots in the region.
Ending Operation Decisive Storm on April 21 alarmed some of those experts, as it could encourage Houthi militias and their allies to continue their ferocious push to take over more territory and impose their will by force on the rest of Yemen. In addition, ending the operation too soon might allow Iran to resume arming the Houthis.
To address that confusion, it would be useful to examine implications of ending Operation Decisive Storm and launching Operation Restoring Hope, based on the Arab coalition’s own statements to date.
The coalition’s statement of last Tuesday made it clear that military action had not stopped, it only became part of a comprehensive plan, designed to “renew hope” for Yemen and its people. It clarified that “Decisive Storm” itself had started as a response to Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s call for help and that its end came at his request. On March 24, Hadi had written to the GCC, Arab League, and the UN beseeching them to intervene militarily to stop the onslaught of Houthi militias and their allies, who at the time were encircling Aden after taking over Sanaa and plundering government, military and civilian institutions.
Similarly, Hadi sent another letter on April 20 expressing his gratitude to the coalition and listing Decisive Storm’s achievements in turning the tide against the coup makers. The coalition’s own statement goes into some detail about those achievements, including neutralizing most of the military capacity seized by the Houthis, which before Decisive Storm had posed a serious threat to Yemen’s legitimate authorities and its neighbors.
They also included imposing a sea and air blockade aimed at both foreign fighters and weapons, protecting what remained of government institutions and territory outside Houthi control, evacuating foreign residents, and preparing the way for humanitarian assistance to reach Yemen.
President Hadi pointed out that under Decisive Storm preparations were intensified to resume the political process, according to the GCC Initiative, its Implementation Mechanism and the National Dialogue Conference Outcomes. Over the past several weeks, consultations have been ongoing in Riyadh between representatives of Yemeni political forces to convene a conference designed to put the process back on track, after disruption by the Houthi coup of Sept. 21, 2014.
At the international level, Yemeni and GCC diplomacy succeeded in getting the UN Security Council resolution 2216(2015) passed, which endorsed a new framework for Yemen, covering military, humanitarian and political aspects. Passed under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, the resolution is binding on all parties and can be implemented by use of force if necessary.
To translate those successes into facts on the ground and implement all provisions of UNSC 2216, President Hadi proposed Operation Restoring Hope. Once again, the Arab coalition members agreed.
It is clear that launching “Restoring Hope” did not mean stopping military pressure on the Houthis, or allowing them to continue their conquest of the rest of Yemen. The new thing in the operation is that it placed military action within an integrated array of elements, including the following:
First, Operation Restoring Hope seeks to facilitate resumption of the political process, according to the parameters Yemenis agreed to before the Houthi coup.
Second, it seeks to enhance protection of civilians, intensify humanitarian work throughout Yemen and enable international and regional efforts to provide food, shelter and medical assistance.
A significant and unprecedented step was the decision by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman to allocate $274 million for humanitarian assistance in Yemen. Saudi Arabia will bear the full cost of the UN humanitarian emergency response plan for Yemen, thus enabling it to immediately start providing assistance where it is needed. In addition to the Saudi move, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and others have already sent urgent humanitarian assistance to Yemen.
Third, Restoring Hope includes intensified counterterrorism work, continuing efforts taking place for years in cooperation with the Yemeni government, to combat terrorist groups such as AQAP and prevent them from taking advantage of the political and security vacuums in parts of the country.
Fourth, on the military side, the new campaign continues to target Houthi movements, reversing their gains on the ground and preventing them from utilizing heavy weapons they have looted from government arsenals. The operation will also continue to enforce the arms embargo imposed by UNSC 2216.
The economic dimension of Operation Restoring Hope includes facilitating infrastructure reconstruction and rehabilitation, development aid and resumption of normal economic activity. But this dimension is worth a separate essay.
