LONDON: With new boss Alan Pardew, West Brom know exactly what they’re going to get.
There will be a decent start — which will be useful given they’ve slipped to within one place and two points of the relegation zone. And then there’ll be a collapse, Pardew will be ousted and the cycle will begin again.
This will be Pardew’s seventh managerial job and his fifth with a side in the top flight. In each of those other four stints with Premier League clubs, the template has been the same. At West Ham, he took 1.46 points per game from his first 54 matches, and 0.99 in his last 69. At Charlton it was 1.44 points per game in his first 50 games, and 0.91 in his final 33. At Newcastle it was 1.59 points per game in his first 58 games, and 1.20 in his last 97. At Crystal Palace it was 1.68 points per game in his first 37 games and 0.72 in his final 36.
Pardew himself has acknowledged those declines as a problem, pondering whether he may be guilty of working his players too hard. Perhaps he can devise a new approach that avoids the problem, but that’s a huge gamble for West Brom to take. Why would a manager who has suffered the same fate four times before fare any differently with the fifth?
Except it’s not a gamble. West Brom will be perfectly happy if the classic Pardew trajectory is followed. If they do take roughly 75 points from his first 50 or so games in charge, that’s this season and next dealt with. They’ll stay up, take the television revenues and they can stop fretting about relegation. If there is a downturn thereafter, they can deal with that then. Nobody, anyway, expects a manager to last more than a season and a half these days.
That mentality pervades the Premier League. It’s why certain clubs seem to have David Moyes, Roy Hodgson, Sam Allardyce, Tony Pulis and Pardew on constant shuffle. The last four of those have a track record as firefighters, or at least are perceived as such.
But what’s happening increasingly is a merry-go-round that risks stunting the development of younger British managers — if, that is, they wish to stay in England.
It’s still only a trickle, but increasingly talented British coaches are moving aboard. It’s a risk, it requires adaptation to a new language and culture, but the experience may improve them as coaches and, if things go well, may raise their profile. It’s fair to say that Graham Potter, who has had extraordinary success in Sweden with Ostersund, is better known now in the UK than he would have been had he, say, led Barnet to promotion.
Sam Allardyce, whose appointment at Everton flows from the same logic that got Pardew his job, has complained often enough about never being considered for the top jobs, as sides in the Champions League prefer to appoint managers with Champions League experience. The same affect works lower down the league as well, though. Mid-ranking Premier League clubs prefer to appoint managers with mid-ranking Premier League experience. The danger of relegation, of losing the enormous revenues brought by Premier League broadcast rights, is too much.
It even makes economic sense. Why gamble on a bright young manager with ambition and grand ideas? Realistically, what is the maximum possible upside? Qualification for the Europa League? Some kind words from pundits about your intelligent modern football? None of it is enough to outweigh the fear of slipping into the Championship and so clubs go for the tried and tested, modern football’s economics boxing them onto a shelf where the terror of what is beneath them always outweighs dreams of what may be above.
There will be a decent start — which will be useful given they’ve slipped to within one place and two points of the relegation zone. And then there’ll be a collapse, Pardew will be ousted and the cycle will begin again.
This will be Pardew’s seventh managerial job and his fifth with a side in the top flight. In each of those other four stints with Premier League clubs, the template has been the same. At West Ham, he took 1.46 points per game from his first 54 matches, and 0.99 in his last 69. At Charlton it was 1.44 points per game in his first 50 games, and 0.91 in his final 33. At Newcastle it was 1.59 points per game in his first 58 games, and 1.20 in his last 97. At Crystal Palace it was 1.68 points per game in his first 37 games and 0.72 in his final 36.
Pardew himself has acknowledged those declines as a problem, pondering whether he may be guilty of working his players too hard. Perhaps he can devise a new approach that avoids the problem, but that’s a huge gamble for West Brom to take. Why would a manager who has suffered the same fate four times before fare any differently with the fifth?
Except it’s not a gamble. West Brom will be perfectly happy if the classic Pardew trajectory is followed. If they do take roughly 75 points from his first 50 or so games in charge, that’s this season and next dealt with. They’ll stay up, take the television revenues and they can stop fretting about relegation. If there is a downturn thereafter, they can deal with that then. Nobody, anyway, expects a manager to last more than a season and a half these days.
That mentality pervades the Premier League. It’s why certain clubs seem to have David Moyes, Roy Hodgson, Sam Allardyce, Tony Pulis and Pardew on constant shuffle. The last four of those have a track record as firefighters, or at least are perceived as such.
But what’s happening increasingly is a merry-go-round that risks stunting the development of younger British managers — if, that is, they wish to stay in England.
It’s still only a trickle, but increasingly talented British coaches are moving aboard. It’s a risk, it requires adaptation to a new language and culture, but the experience may improve them as coaches and, if things go well, may raise their profile. It’s fair to say that Graham Potter, who has had extraordinary success in Sweden with Ostersund, is better known now in the UK than he would have been had he, say, led Barnet to promotion.
Sam Allardyce, whose appointment at Everton flows from the same logic that got Pardew his job, has complained often enough about never being considered for the top jobs, as sides in the Champions League prefer to appoint managers with Champions League experience. The same affect works lower down the league as well, though. Mid-ranking Premier League clubs prefer to appoint managers with mid-ranking Premier League experience. The danger of relegation, of losing the enormous revenues brought by Premier League broadcast rights, is too much.
It even makes economic sense. Why gamble on a bright young manager with ambition and grand ideas? Realistically, what is the maximum possible upside? Qualification for the Europa League? Some kind words from pundits about your intelligent modern football? None of it is enough to outweigh the fear of slipping into the Championship and so clubs go for the tried and tested, modern football’s economics boxing them onto a shelf where the terror of what is beneath them always outweighs dreams of what may be above.
