El Nino near-certain to last through summer

NEW YORK: The El Nino climate phenomenon is almost certain to last through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the US weather forecaster said, raising the chance of heavy rain in the southern United States as well as South America, and scorching heat in Asia that could devastate crops of thirsty food staples like rice.
El Nino also reduces the likelihood of a busy hurricane season, which lasts from June to November and can disrupt energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
In its monthly report released recently, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said El Nino, a phenomenon which warms sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, had a 90 percent likelihood of continuing through the summer. In April it estimated the odds at 70 percent.
El Nino conditions will likely last through the end of the year, the CPC said, pegging the chance at 80 percent.
“El Nino’s definitely upon us and it should remain so for the next few months,” said Don Keeney, a meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA Weather Services.
A strong El Nino last appeared in 2009-2010 and resulted in significant spikes in sugar, cocoa and wheat prices.
If a strong El Nino does develop the likely US impacts include wetter conditions across the southern US, from drought-stricken California through Texas to Florida, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Weather Underground.
Recent rains across the central and southern Plains and reaching as far as southern California “could be seen as a sneak preview,” he wrote on his blog.
But the El Nino effect did not guarantee drought relief for the Golden State, he said. “The strong El Nino of 1987-88 ... produced a drier-than-average winter from California to Washington,” he wrote.
While El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation, that does not necessarily rule out a powerful storm, Masters added.